Mark Hulbert | |
|---|---|
 Mark J. Hulbert in 2009 | |
| Born | 1955 (age 68–69) |
| Nationality | American |
| Alma mater | Haverford College University of Oxford |
| Occupation | Journalist for MarketWatch |
| Known for | Tracking the performance of investment newsletters |
| Website | hulbertratings |
Mark J. Hulbert (born 1955) is an American finance analyst, journalist, and author with a focus on expectations of stock market investment newsletters, contrarian investing, and quantitive or technical analysis.
Hulbert was born in Kansas in 1955. His father was a professor of botany at Kansas State University. [1] : p.57 Hulbert graduated in philosophy from Haverford College in 1977 and from the University of Oxford in 1979. [1] : p.57
In September 1980, with financing from James Davidson and William Bonner, Hulbert launched Hulbert Financial Digest, a publication that tracked the performance of investment newsletters from the perspective of actual subscribers, including the timing and specificity of the buy/sell information published in such newsletters.. It grew to 14,000 subscribers by 1985. [1] : p.58
In 1985, Hulbert won a libel suit filed by a publisher that ranked at the bottom of Hulbert's ratings. [2] [3]
By 1988, Hulbert was rating 125 newsletters based on specific, actionable buy/sell recommendations and risk-adjusted performance. He was based out of his townhouse on Capitol Hill. His digest received $600,000 in annual revenue and was spending $15,000-$20,000 on newsletter subscriptions. [4]
Hulbert also calculated how much of the newsletters' performance is due to picking stocks with good prospects and how much due to market timing. [5]
From 1998 through early 2010, Hulbert wrote a column on investment strategies published in the Sunday edition of The New York Times. [6]
In 2000, an annual subscription to Hulbert's publication cost $135. [7]
In April 2002, Hulbert sold the company that owned the digest and interactive website to MarketWatch. [8] Hulbert became an editor and writer of a column on MarketWatch. [9]
In March 2004, Hulbert launched Hulbert Interactive, a website for interactive research into investment newsletters and advisors. [10] [11]
In 2014, Hulbert announced that The Prudent Speculator, an investment newsletter edited by John Buckingham, had the best average annual return over the last 20 years of all newsletters, with an average annual return of 16.3%. [12]
In February 2016, the final issue of the newsletter was published, with Hulbert noting "In today’s world ... awash as it is in Big Data, [the newsletter] seems to be less needed. That, at least, is the judgment of the market." [13]
Hulbert continues to write columns for MarketWatch. [9]
The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) "reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timers tracked". HSNSI is a contrarian investing indicator: if it is high, he views the outlook for stocks as poor. Conversely, when it is low, his outlook is good. [14] The predictive power of the Index has been disputed by CXO Advisory Group. [15]
Hulbert admits that his newsletter has no value to a hypothetical emotionless investor: "Simply put, the odds are overwhelming that — over the long term — you will make more money by buying and holding an index fund." But real investors are "...unable to hold an index fund through a bear market, and by selling near the bottom they fail to realize ... [the] theoretical longterm potential." In contrast, he claims real investors are "...likely to make more money ... by following strategies that are statistically inferior ... but which are psychologically superior..." because the investor will follow their chosen advisor newsletter rigorously, which is preferable to buying an index fund but panic selling in a down market. [16] [17]
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements ; health; and competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative and technical.
A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks, which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies that are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Investments are usually made with an investment strategy in mind.
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as secular for long time-frames, primary for medium time-frames, and secondary for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time.
Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources to achieve later benefits". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broader viewpoint, an investment can be defined as "to tailor the pattern of expenditure and receipt of resources to optimise the desirable patterns of these flows". When expenditures and receipts are defined in terms of money, then the net monetary receipt in a time period is termed cash flow, while money received in a series of several time periods is termed cash flow stream.
A closed-end fund, also known as a closed-end mutual fund, is an investment vehicle fund that raises capital by issuing a fixed number of shares at its inception, and then invests that capital in financial assets such as stocks and bonds. After inception it is closed to new capital, although fund managers sometimes employ leverage. Investors can buy and sell the existing shares in secondary markets.
Day trading is a form of speculation in securities in which a trader buys and sells a financial instrument within the same trading day, so that all positions are closed before the market closes for the trading day to avoid unmanageable risks and negative price gaps between one day's close and the next day's price at the open. Traders who trade in this capacity are generally classified as speculators. Day trading contrasts with the long-term trades underlying buy-and-hold and value investing strategies. Day trading may require fast trade execution, sometimes as fast as milli-seconds in scalping, therefore direct-access day trading software is often needed.
Contrarian investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time.
Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.
In finance, an investment strategy is a set of rules, behaviors or procedures, designed to guide an investor's selection of an investment portfolio. Individuals have different profit objectives, and their individual skills make different tactics and strategies appropriate. Some choices involve a tradeoff between risk and return. Most investors fall somewhere in between, accepting some risk for the expectation of higher returns. Investors frequently pick investments to hedge themselves against inflation. During periods of high inflation investments such as shares tend to perform less well in real terms.
A stock trader or equity trader or share trader, also called a stock investor, is a person or company involved in trading equity securities and attempting to profit from the purchase and sale of those securities. Stock traders may be an investor, agent, hedger, arbitrageur, speculator, or stockbroker. Such equity trading in large publicly traded companies may be through a stock exchange. Stock shares in smaller public companies may be bought and sold in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in some instances in equity crowdfunding platforms.
An equity-linked note (ELN) is a debt instrument, usually a bond issued by a financial institution such as an investment bank or a subsidiary of a commercial bank. ELNs are liabilities of the issuer, but the final payout to the investor is based on an unrelated company's stock price, a stock index or a group of stocks or stock indices. The underlying stocks typically have large market capitalizations. Equity-linked notes are a type of structured product and are often marketed to unsophisticated retail investors.
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TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. is a leading independent institutional research firm focused on equity market liquidity based in Sausalito, California.
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Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. Providing Demat and Trading services. Its main offices are in Mumbai. The company employs over 2,100 people.
Jason Goepfert is an American researcher and columnist focused on the development of behavioral finance. Prior to founding Sundial Capital Research, he was the manager of back office operations for Deephaven Capital Management, a Minnesota-based hedge fund, and Wells Fargo's online brokerage unit.
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