Sector rotation

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Sector rotation is a theory of stock market trading patterns. [1] In this context, a sector is understood to mean a group of stocks representing companies in similar lines of business. The basic premise is, that these stocks can be expected to perform similarly. Additionally, different groups of stocks which have been clustered according to the aforementioned principle will show a different performance.

Stock market public entity for the trading of company stocks and shares

A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks, which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately. Examples of the latter include shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Stock exchanges list shares of common equity as well as other security types, e.g. corporate bonds and convertible bonds.

Contents

Sector rotation theory says a number of things. First, whatever sector is hot (has done well recently) should continue to outperform. Second, these sectors will eventually rotate so that whatever was once out of favor will be in favor. Third, these movements are somewhat predictable, and connected with the business cycle.

The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product (GDP) around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence. These fluctuations typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth and periods of relative stagnation or decline.

With the phase-shift in the performance cycle of sectors (ideally like the phase-shifted wave patterns of three-phase electric power) an investor could continually hop from a sector at the peak of performance to a sector showing a potential to rise.

Three-phase electric power Common electrical power generation, transmission and distribution method for alternating currents

Three-phase electric power is a common method of alternating current electric power generation, transmission, and distribution. It is a type of polyphase system and is the most common method used by electrical grids worldwide to transfer power. It is also used to power large motors and other heavy loads.

A sector rotation investment strategy is not a passive investment strategy like indexing, and requires periodic review and adjustment of sector holdings. Tactical asset allocation and sector rotation strategies require patience and discipline, but have the potential to outperform passive indexing investment strategies.

Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic investment strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio's asset allocation. The goal of a TAA strategy is to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing.

Examples

An investor or trader may describe the current market movements as favoring basic material stocks over semiconductor stocks by calling the environment a sector rotation from semiconductors to basic materials.

A semiconductor material has an electrical conductivity value falling between that of a conductor, such as metallic copper, and an insulator, such as glass. Its resistance decreases as its temperature increases, which is the behaviour opposite to that of a metal. Its conducting properties may be altered in useful ways by the deliberate, controlled introduction of impurities ("doping") into the crystal structure. Where two differently-doped regions exist in the same crystal, a semiconductor junction is created. The behavior of charge carriers which include electrons, ions and electron holes at these junctions is the basis of diodes, transistors and all modern electronics. Some examples of semiconductors are silicon, germanium, gallium arsenide, and elements near the so-called "metalloid staircase" on the periodic table. After silicon, gallium arsenide is the second most common semiconductor and is used in laser diodes, solar cells, microwave-frequency integrated circuits and others. Silicon is a critical element for fabricating most electronic circuits.

An example of a sector clustering would be: [2]

Leading
This includes stocks like consumer cyclicals and financial companies. These would do well when the market is at bottom.
In-line
This includes stocks like technology and telecommunication. These should go up more than the overall market in the main part of a bull market.
Lagging
This includes stocks like energy companies. These would do well when the market is at top.
Contrarian
This includes consumer staples. These should do least bad in a bear market.

Note that the performances mentioned are always relative to the overall market. During a bear market it is expected that all stocks will go down some.

Connection with other markets

The primary driver of sector rotation is the variability of currency values (inflationary, disinflationary, or deflationary) and interest rates. As the economy expands, demand for raw materials creates inflationary pressures, which in turn prompt higher interest rates, which increase the value of the currency, which reduces the competitiveness of a country's exports as the currency causes them to cost more to other countries. This final stage causes the economy to contract, reducing demand for raw materials, which creates deflationary pressures, which in turn prompt lower interest rates, which decrease the value of the currency, which increases the competitiveness of a country's exports—creating a new market cycle. The relative strength of commodities, bonds, currencies, and stocks shift in this changing monetary climate in a somewhat predictable manner. [3]

A currency, in the most specific sense is money in any form when in use or circulation as a medium of exchange, especially circulating banknotes and coins. A more general definition is that a currency is a system of money in common use, especially for people in a nation. Under this definition, US dollars (US$), pounds sterling (£), Australian dollars (A$), European euros (€), Russian rubles (₽) and Indian Rupees (₹) are examples of currencies. These various currencies are recognized as stores of value and are traded between nations in foreign exchange markets, which determine the relative values of the different currencies. Currencies in this sense are defined by governments, and each type has limited boundaries of acceptance.

Saying

"The worst house in a good neighborhood is better than the best house in a bad neighborhood."

See also

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Passive management is an investing strategy that tracks a market-weighted index or portfolio. The most popular method is to mimic the performance of an externally specified index by buying an index fund. By tracking an index, an investment portfolio typically gets good diversification, low turnover, and low management fees. With low fees, an investor in such a fund would have higher returns than a similar fund with similar investments but higher management fees and/or turnover/transaction costs.

In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%. Inflation reduces the value of currency over time, but deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation is distinct from disinflation, a slow-down in the inflation rate, i.e. when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive.

Fixed income

Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year, and to repay the principal amount on maturity. Fixed-income securities can be contrasted with equity securities – often referred to as stocks and shares – that create no obligation to pay dividends or any other form of income.

Value investing is an investment paradigm that involves buying securities that appear underpriced by some form of fundamental analysis. The various forms of value investing derive from the investment philosophy first taught by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd at Columbia Business School in 1928, and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis.

In finance, statistical arbitrage is a class of short-term financial trading strategies that employ mean reversion models involving broadly diversified portfolios of securities held for short periods of time. These strategies are supported by substantial mathematical, computational, and trading platforms.

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market, rather than for a particular financial asset.

Active management refers to a portfolio management strategy where the manager makes specific investments with the goal of outperforming an investment benchmark index or target return. In passive management, investors expect a return that closely replicates the investment weighting and returns of a benchmark index and will often invest in an index fund.

In finance, an investment strategy is a set of rules, behaviors or procedures, designed to guide an investor's selection of an investment portfolio. Individuals have different profit objectives, and their individual skills make different tactics and strategies appropriate. Some choices involve a tradeoff between risk and return. Most investors fall somewhere in between, accepting some risk for the expectation of higher returns.

Investment style refers to different style characteristics of equities, bonds or financial derivatives within a given investment philosophy.

The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in 1991 and the official Dogs of the Dow website, which proposes that an investor annually select for investment the ten Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks whose dividend is the highest fraction of their price. Under other analysis these stocks would be considered "dogs", or undesirable, but the Dogs of the Dow strategy proposes these same stocks have the potential for substantial increases in stock price plus relatively high dividend payouts.

An investment strategy or portfolio is considered market-neutral if it seeks to avoid some form of market risk entirely, typically by hedging. To evaluate market-neutrality requires specifying the risk to avoid. For example, convertible arbitrage attempts to fully hedge fluctuations in the price of the underlying common stock.

Style investing is an investment approach in which rotation among different "styles" is supposed to be important for successful investing. As opposed to investing in individual securities, style investors can decide to make portfolio allocation decisions by placing their money in broad categories of assets, such as "large-cap", "growth", "international", or "emerging markets".

Value averaging

Value averaging (VA), also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique for adding to an investment portfolio that is controversially claimed to provide a greater return than other methods such as dollar cost averaging. With the method, investors add to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance reaches a predetermined monthly or quarterly target, regardless of market fluctuations. For example, an investor may want to have a $3600 investment in 36 months. Using VA, the investor would aim to have a total investment value of $100 at the beginning of the first month, $200 at the beginning of the second month, and so on. Having invested $100 at the beginning of the first month, the investment may be worth $101 at the end of that month. In that case, the investor invests a further $99 to reach the second month objective of $200. If at the end of the first month, the investment is worth $205, the investor withdraws $5.

A stock market simulator is a program or application that attempts to reproduce or duplicate some or all the features of a live stock market on a computer so that a player may practice trading stocks without financial risk. Paper trading is a simulated trading process in which would-be investors can 'practice' investing without committing real money.

A 130–30 fund or a ratio up to 150/50 is a type of collective investment vehicle, often a type of specialty mutual fund, but which allows the fund manager simultaneously to hold both long and short positions on different equities in the fund. Traditionally, mutual funds were long-only investments. 130–30 funds are a fast-growing segment of the financial industry; they should be available both as traditional mutual funds, and as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While this type of investment has existed for a while in the hedge fund industry, its availability for retail investors is relatively new.

Global Tactical Asset Allocation, or GTAA, is a top-down investment strategy that attempts to exploit short-term mis-pricings among a global set of assets. The strategy focuses on general movements in the market rather than on performance of individual securities.

Stock market cycles are the long-term price patterns of stock markets and are often associated with general business cycles. They are key to technical analysis where the approach to investing is based on cycles or repeating price patterns.

Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes is a personal finance book written by American investment analyst and politician Harry Browne and published in September 1999.

References



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