Recency bias

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Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event", [1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate.

Contents

Recency bias should not be confused with anchoring or confirmation bias. Recency bias is related to the serial-position effect known as the recency effect. It is not to be confused with recency illusion, the belief or impression that a word or language usage is of recent origin when in reality it is long-established.

Occurrences

It commonly appears in employee evaluations, as a distortion in favor of recently completed activities or recollections, and can be reinforced or offset by the Halo effect. [2]

In psychology, primacy bias (excessive focus on earliest events or facts) and recency bias (excessive focus on the most recent events or facts) are often considered together as primacy and recency bias.

Recency bias can skew investors into not accurately evaluating economic cycles, causing them to continue to remain invested in a bull market even when they should grow cautious of its potential continuation, and refrain from buying assets in a bear market because they remain pessimistic about its prospects of recovery. [3]

When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. It convinces us that a rising market or individual stock will continue to appreciate, or that a declining market or stock is likely to keep falling. This bias often leads us to make emotionally charged choices—decisions that could erode our earning potential by tempting us to hold a stock for too long or pull out too soon. [4]

Lists of superlatives such as "Top 10 Superbowls", Greatest of All Time (G.O.A.T.), and sports awards (such as MVP trophies, Rookie of the Year, etc.) all are prone to distortion due to recency bias. [5] Sports betting is also impacted by recency bias. [6]

Since at least 2008, [7] reporters have frequently used the term "the pimp spot" to refer to the last slot in competitions such as American Idol , [7] X-Factor , [8] So You Think You Can Dance , [9] American Song Contest , [10] The Voice , [11] [12] and Dancing with the Stars [13] and sometimes in conjunction with benefits of starting last. There is empirical evidence in academic literature suggesting that participants who performed later in major song contests, including Eurovision and New Wave (when the order of performances was randomized), were ranked higher. [14]

See also

Related Research Articles

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The European Broadcasting Union is an alliance of public service media organisations whose countries are within the European Broadcasting Area or who are members of the Council of Europe. As of 2024, it is made up of 123 member organisations from 56 countries, and 31 associate members from a further 20 countries. It was established in 1950, and has its administrative headquarters in Geneva.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cognitive bias</span> Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment

A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, and irrationality.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs.

Behavioral economics is the study of the psychological, cognitive, emotional, cultural and social factors involved in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by classical economic theory.

Psychology is an academic and applied discipline involving the scientific study of human mental functions and behavior. Occasionally, in addition or opposition to employing the scientific method, it also relies on symbolic interpretation and critical analysis, although these traditions have tended to be less pronounced than in other social sciences, such as sociology. Psychologists study phenomena such as perception, cognition, emotion, personality, behavior, and interpersonal relationships. Some, especially depth psychologists, also study the unconscious mind.

Recall in memory refers to the mental process of retrieval of information from the past. Along with encoding and storage, it is one of the three core processes of memory. There are three main types of recall: free recall, cued recall and serial recall. Psychologists test these forms of recall as a way to study the memory processes of humans and animals. Two main theories of the process of recall are the two-stage theory and the theory of encoding specificity.

The availability heuristic, also known as availability bias, is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. This heuristic, operating on the notion that, if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions not as readily recalled, is inherently biased toward recently acquired information.

Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.

The mere-exposure effect is a psychological phenomenon by which people tend to develop liking or disliking for things merely because they are familiar with them. In social psychology, this effect is sometimes called the familiarity principle. The effect has been demonstrated with many kinds of things, including words, Chinese characters, paintings, pictures of faces, geometric figures, and sounds. In studies of interpersonal attraction, the more often people see a person, the more pleasing and likeable they find that person.

Serial-position effect is the tendency of a person to recall the first and last items in a series best, and the middle items worst. The term was coined by Hermann Ebbinghaus through studies he performed on himself, and refers to the finding that recall accuracy varies as a function of an item's position within a study list. When asked to recall a list of items in any order, people tend to begin recall with the end of the list, recalling those items best. Among earlier list items, the first few items are recalled more frequently than the middle items.

Emotional reasoning is a cognitive process by which an individual concludes that their emotional reaction proves something is true, despite contrary empirical evidence. Emotional reasoning creates an 'emotional truth', which may be in direct conflict with the inverse 'perceptional truth'. It can create feelings of anxiety, fear, and apprehension in existing stressful situations, and as such, is often associated with or triggered by panic disorder or anxiety disorder. For example, even though a spouse has shown only devotion, a person using emotional reasoning might conclude, "I know my spouse is being unfaithful because I feel jealous."

Eurovision is a pan-European television telecommunications network owned and operated by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). It was founded in 1954 in Geneva, Switzerland, and its first official transmission took place on 6 June 1954. However, a year before the official launch, on 2 June 1953 the coronation of Elizabeth II was one of the first events to be broadcast across Europe.

Choice-supportive bias or post-purchase rationalization is the tendency to retroactively ascribe positive attributes to an option one has selected and/or to demote the forgone options. It is part of cognitive science, and is a distinct cognitive bias that occurs once a decision is made. For example, if a person chooses option A instead of option B, they are likely to ignore or downplay the faults of option A while amplifying or ascribing new negative faults to option B. Conversely, they are also likely to notice and amplify the advantages of option A and not notice or de-emphasize those of option B.

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance; (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs.

The negativity bias, also known as the negativity effect, is a cognitive bias that, even when positive or neutral things of equal intensity occur, things of a more negative nature have a greater effect on one's psychological state and processes than neutral or positive things. In other words, something very positive will generally have less of an impact on a person's behavior and cognition than something equally emotional but negative. The negativity bias has been investigated within many different domains, including the formation of impressions and general evaluations; attention, learning, and memory; and decision-making and risk considerations.

In cognitive psychology and decision science, conservatism or conservatism bias is a bias which refers to the tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence. This bias describes human belief revision in which people over-weigh the prior distribution and under-weigh new sample evidence when compared to Bayesian belief-revision.

Cognitive bias mitigation is the prevention and reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases – unconscious, automatic influences on human judgment and decision making that reliably produce reasoning errors.

Behavioral strategy refers to the application of insights from psychology and behavioral economics to the research and practice of strategic management. In one definition of the field, "Behavioral strategy merges cognitive and social psychology with strategic management theory and practice. Behavioral strategy aims to bring realistic assumptions about human cognition, emotions, and social behavior to the strategic management of organizations and, thereby, to enrich strategy theory, empirical research, and real-world practice".

The frequency illusion is a cognitive bias in which a person notices a specific concept, word, or product more frequently after recently becoming aware of it.

References

  1. Use Cognitive Biases to Your Advantage, Institute for Management Consultants, #721, December 19, 2011
  2. Recency Bias: Overview, Oxford Reference
  3. "Tomorrow’s Market Probably Won’t Look Anything Like Today", Carl Richards, New York Times, February 13, 2012
  4. "Is Recency Bias Influencing Your Investing Decisions?", Portfolio Management, August 18, 2016, Charles Schwab
  5. "NBA MVP Voting: How Playing on the West Coast and Late-season Surges Affect the Race", Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, May 1, 2015
  6. "The Five Biggest Cognitive Biases that Impair Most Sports Bettors", Jeff Ma, November 12, 2014, ESPN
  7. 1 2 "Have the 'American Idol' Producers Turned Against David Archuleta?" Vulture , 14 May 2008.
  8. Shirley Halperin. "‘X Factor’: How Astro Got Eminem’s Permission to Alter His Song, Plus 9 More Burning Questions Answered", The Hollywood Reporter , 10 November 2011.
  9. Rebecca Iannucci. "SYTYCD Performance Finale Recap: Who Will (and Should) Win Season 14?", tvline.com, 18 September 2017.
  10. Lyndsey Parker. "Despite a Michael Bolton performance, 'American Song Contest' fails to fulfill its campy (Euro)vision" aol.com / Yahoo! Entertainment, 21 March 2022.
  11. Amanda Bell. "The Voice recap: 'Live Top 12 Performances'" Entertainment Weekly , 20 November 2017.
  12. Charlie Mason. "The Voice Recap: Whitney Houston, the Top 8 Have a Problem… or Do They?" tvline.com, 5 December 2022.
  13. Annie Barrett. "Dancing with the Stars season premiere recap: Will You Accept This Pose?" Entertainment Weekly , 19 March 2013.
  14. Antipov, Evgeny A; Pokryshevskaya, Elena B (2017). "Order effects in the results of song contests: Evidence from the Eurovision and the New Wave". Judgment and Decision Making. 12 (4). Cambridge University Press: 415–419. doi: 10.1017/S1930297500006288 .

Further reading