United States presidential election cycle

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The four-year United States presidential election cycle is a theory that stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new U.S. president. It suggests that the presidential election has a predictable impact on America's economic policies and market sentiment irrespective of the specific policies of the President. It goes on to suggest the levels of stocks for each of the four-years of the presidential term as part of an stock market cycles. [1] [2]

Stock market public entity for the trading of company stocks and shares

A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks, which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately. Examples of the latter include shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Stock exchanges list shares of common equity as well as other security types, e.g. corporate bonds and convertible bonds.

Market sentiment General attitude of investors to market price development

Market sentiment is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events.

Stock market cycles are the long-term price patterns of stock markets and are often associated with general business cycles. They are key to technical analysis where the approach to investing is based on cycles or repeating price patterns.

Contents

Theory

The four-year U.S. presidential cycle is attributed to politics and its impact on America's economic policies. Either or both of these factors could be the cause for the stock market's statistically improved performance during most of the third and fourth years of a president's four-year term. [3]

The month-end seasonality cycle is attributed to the automatic purchases associated with retirement accounts.

The secular stock market cycles that last about 30 years move in lockstep with corresponding secular economic, social, and political cycles in the US. [4]

See also

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References

  1. "4-Year Election Cycle". www.seasonalcharts.com. Retrieved May 22, 2017.
  2. Wing-Keung Wonga, Michael McAleer (May 2009). "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets". Mathematics and Computers in Simulation. 79 (11): 3267–3277. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2009.05.007.
  3. William Hester (December 2005). "Average Gain in Year Two of Presidential Cycle Hides Important Declines".
  4. Valeriy Zakamulin (March 2012). "Secular Mean Reversion and Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market". SSRN   2209048 .Missing or empty |url= (help)