Jeannine Bailliu

Last updated
Jeannine Bailliu
Born
Jeannine Natasha Bailliu

Born in Germany
Nationality Canadian
Alma materMcGill University, Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva), University of California, Santa Cruz
OccupationEconomist

Jeannine N. Bailliu is a Canadian economist who is currently the Associate Vice-President (Programs) at the C.D. Howe Institute [1] in Toronto. Prior to joining the C.D. Howe Institute, Jeannine spent over twenty years working at the Bank of Canada, [2] where she held a number of senior roles including Senior Policy Advisor and Director of Emerging Markets. Dr. Bailliu has published multiple scholarly articles, focusing her research on international economics, international finance and applied econometrics. [2]

Contents

Education

Jeannine Bailliu attended high school at École Secondary Étienne-Brûlé (Toronto) and École Secondary Publique Louis-Riel (Ottawa). She completed her Honours Bachelor of Commerce (H.B.Com.) at McGill University.[ citation needed ] She then received her master's degree in International Economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. Upon receiving her masters, Bailliu applied for her Doctor of Philosophy degree (PhD) and obtained her PhD in Economics from the University of California in Santa Cruz.[ citation needed ]

Career

Upon obtaining her PhD in Economics, Bailliu worked for the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris. [2] Afterwards, she started working for the Bank of Canada as a research advisor in 2005 for four years. [3] In March 2005, Bailliu and Ramzi Issa published an internal note for the Bank which indicated that the Canadian dollar was undervalued. This received press coverage when it was released a year later under the Access to Information Act. [4] As of 2010, Bailliu became an Assistant Chief of the Bank of Canada. As of September 2016, she obtained the position of the Senior Policy Advisor for the International Economic Analysis Department.

Some of Bailliu's recent research focuses on the Chinese economy, exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, and macroeconomic modelling. [2] In 2016, Bailliu et al. published a working paper called "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom's Prospects to 2030" [5] In addition, Bailliu also focuses a lot of her research on the economic growth of emerging market economies. In 2016, she published a paper called "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies" [6] following structural reforms after the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In 2000, Bailliu presented a paper with one her colleagues discussing exchange rate regimes and economic growth in emerging market economies. [7] Her first article was published in July 2000, called "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries", published by the Bank of Canada. [8]

Scholarship and selected works

Research on the Chinese economy

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom's Prospects to 2030 (2016)

Jeannine Bailliu co-authored this research with her colleagues Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov and Wheaton Welbourn. Bailliu et al. (2016) used a Cobb-Douglas production function to forecast the growth of the Chinese economy to 2030. They used four key determinants: capital stock growth, labour growth, human capital growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. [5] Their research suggests that the Chinese economy is expected to decelerate its growth from its current 7% growth rate to roughly 5% by 2030. Their attribute this slow down in growth to a decrease in future investments.

The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach (2010)

Baillui and colleague Patrick Blagrave analyze the factors behind shocks in the Chinese economy and how these shocks effect the G-3 countries, United States, the euro area and Japan [9] Firstly, Baillui et al. (2010) find that foreign demand shocks are larger in China than other industrialized countries. This is namely due to the fact that China has a very open economy [9] and one of the world's largest manufacturers. Henceforth, demand shocks from the international market will greatly impact the Chinese economy. In addition, their research also suggests that real equilibrium exchange rates are not only a large driving force for the Chinese economy but for the international market as well. Lastly, Baillui et al. (2010) argue that China's economy adapts slower to shocks than other developed countries because their monetary policy is not as effective as the real exchange rate. [9]

Research on emerging market economies

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies (2016)

In 2016, Jeannine Bailliu and Christopher Hajzler suggested that growth in Emerging Market Economies (EME's) slowed down after the Great Recession. Bailliu and Hajzler present structural reforms that could help increase productivity and thus help stimulate a substantial amount of growth. Their research suggests that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization, and strengthening property rights are key factors contributing to growth. [6] Bailliu and Hajzler also suggest that investments in infrastructure and reforms to product market regulation (PMR) [6] impact the level of growth in EME's. They mainly focus their research on emerging market economies such as China, India, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.

Implications for Emerging-Market Economies (2000)

In a conference held by the Bank of Canada in November 2000, Jeannine Bailliu and Robert Lafrance, and Jean-François Perrault presented a paper called "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Emerging Markets." [7] They examine how exchange rates effect economic growth in 25 emerging market economies. Their findings suggest that flexible exchange rates are correlated with robust economic growth only when countries liberalize capital flows and already have an existing well-developed financial market. [7]

First publication at the Bank of Canada

Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, Economic Growth and Developing Countries

In July 2000, Bailliu published her paper on capital flows and economic growth in developing countries. Using data from 40 developing countries from 1975–95, Bailliu concludes that inward capital flows are positively correlated with economic growth in developing countries only when the country's domestic financial system is developed and stable. [10] She suggests that inward capital flows will have negative effects on economic growth if the country has a poorly developed banking system. This is because governments of countries with underdeveloped banking systems could use the capital inflows for risky rather than productive investment. [10]

Bank of Canada publications

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Four Asian Tigers</span> Economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong

The Four Asian Tigers are the developed Asian economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Between the early 1950s and 1990s, they underwent rapid industrialization and maintained exceptionally high growth rates of more than 7 percent a year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exchange rate</span> Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global financial system</span> Global framework for capital flows

The global financial system is the worldwide framework of legal agreements, institutions, and both formal and informal economic action that together facilitate international flows of financial capital for purposes of investment and trade financing. Since emerging in the late 19th century during the first modern wave of economic globalization, its evolution is marked by the establishment of central banks, multilateral treaties, and intergovernmental organizations aimed at improving the transparency, regulation, and effectiveness of international markets. In the late 1800s, world migration and communication technology facilitated unprecedented growth in international trade and investment. At the onset of World War I, trade contracted as foreign exchange markets became paralyzed by money market illiquidity. Countries sought to defend against external shocks with protectionist policies and trade virtually halted by 1933, worsening the effects of the global Great Depression until a series of reciprocal trade agreements slowly reduced tariffs worldwide. Efforts to revamp the international monetary system after World War II improved exchange rate stability, fostering record growth in global finance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1997 Asian financial crisis</span> Financial crisis of many Asian countries during the second half of 1997

The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. However, the recovery in 1998–1999 was rapid, and worries of a meltdown quickly subsided.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Monetary policy</span> Policy of interest rates or money supply

Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since then, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balance of payments</span> Difference between the inflow and outflow of money to a country at a given time

In international economics, the balance of payments of a country is the difference between all money flowing into the country in a particular period of time and the outflow of money to the rest of the world. In other words, it is economic transactions between countries during a period of time. These financial transactions are made by individuals, firms and government bodies to compare receipts and payments arising out of trade of goods and services.

In economics, hot money is the flow of funds from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called "hot money" because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability.

John Harold Williamson was a British-born economist who coined the term Washington Consensus. He served as a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics from 1981 until his retirement in 2012. During that time, he was the project director for the United Nations High-Level Panel on Financing for Development in 2001. He was also on leave as chief economist for South Asia at the World Bank during 1996–99, adviser to the International Monetary Fund from 1972 to 1974, and an economic consultant to the UK Treasury from 1968 to 1970. He was also an economics professor at Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (1978–81), University of Warwick (1970–77), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of York (1963–68) and Princeton University (1962–63).

Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold and silver held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Impossible trinity</span> Trilemma in international economics

The impossible trinity is a concept in international economics and international political economy which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:

An emerging market is a market that has some characteristics of a developed market, but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become developed markets in the future or were in the past. The term "frontier market" is used for developing countries with smaller, riskier, or more illiquid capital markets than "emerging". As of 2006, the economies of China and India are considered to be the largest emerging markets. According to The Economist, many people find the term outdated, but no new term has gained traction. Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion. Emerging market economies’ share of global PPP-adjusted GDP has risen from 27 percent in 1960 to around 53 percent by 2013. The ten largest emerging economies by nominal GDP are 4 of the 9 BRICS countries along with Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Poland. The inclusion of South Korea, Poland, and sometimes Taiwan are questionable given they are no longer considered emerging markets by the IMF and World Bank If we ignore those three, the top ten would include Argentina and Thailand.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">BRIC</span> Term for a group of four emerging national economies

BRIC is a term describing the foreign investment strategies grouping acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The separate BRICS organisation would go on to become a political and economic organization largely based on such grouping.

In macroeconomics and international finance, the capital account, also known as the capital and financial account, records the net flow of investment into an economy. It is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being the current account. Whereas the current account reflects a nation's net income, the capital account reflects net change in ownership of national assets.

Capital controls are residency-based measures such as transaction taxes, other limits, or outright prohibitions that a nation's government can use to regulate flows from capital markets into and out of the country's capital account. These measures may be economy-wide, sector-specific, or industry specific. They may apply to all flows, or may differentiate by type or duration of the flow.

A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden slowdown in private capital inflows into emerging market economies, and a corresponding sharp reversal from large current account deficits into smaller deficits or small surpluses. Sudden stops are usually followed by a sharp decrease in output, private spending and credit to the private sector, and real exchange rate depreciation. The term "sudden stop" was inspired by a banker’s comment on a paper by Rüdiger Dornbusch and Alejandro Werner about Mexico, that "it is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stephany Griffith-Jones</span>

Stephany Griffith-Jones is an economist specializing in international finance and development. Her expertise lies in the reform of the international financial system, particularly in financial regulation, global governance, and international capital flows. Currently, she serves as a member of the Governor Board at the Central Bank of Chile. She has held various positions throughout her career, including financial markets director at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue based at Columbia University, associate fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, and professorial fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at Sussex University.

Fear of floating is the hesitancy of a country to follow a floating exchange rate regime, rather than a fixed exchange rate. This is more relevant in emerging economies, especially when they suffered from financial crisis in the last two decades. In foreign exchange markets of the emerging market economies, there is evidence showing that countries who claim they are floating their currency, are actually reluctant to let the nominal exchange rate fluctuate in response to macroeconomic shocks. In the literature, this is first convincingly documented by Calvo and Reinhart with "fear of floating" as the title of one of their papers in 2000. Since then, this widespread phenomenon of reluctance to adjust exchange rates in emerging markets is usually called "fear of floating". Most of the studies on "fear of floating" are closely related to literature on costs and benefits of different exchange rate regimes.

Financial integration is a phenomenon in which financial markets in neighboring, regional and/or global economies are closely linked together. Various forms of actual financial integration include: Information sharing among financial institutions; sharing of best practices among financial institutions; sharing of cutting edge technologies among financial institutions; firms borrow and raise funds directly in the international capital markets; investors directly invest in the international capital markets; newly engineered financial products are domestically innovated and originated then sold and bought in the international capital markets; rapid adaption/copycat of newly engineered financial products among financial institutions in different economies; cross-border capital flows; and foreign participation in the domestic financial markets.

Financial market theory of development is an economic theory to use private flows of capital in new stock markets to encourage domestic economic development in developing countries. The theory was put forward by the World Bank's World Development Report for 2000.

Graciela Kaminsky is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University and a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Kaminsky studied economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where she received her Ph.D. In 1984 she did a brief research stay at the Argentine Central Bank, later in 1985 she moved to San Diego as an assistant professor at the University of California. In 1992 she worked on the board of governors of the US Federal Reserve System, later in 1998 she was appointed a full professor at George Washington University, where she works at the Elliot School of International Affairs. Kaminsky has been a visiting scholar at the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Spain, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and the Central Bank of France.

References

  1. ↑ "Jeannine N. Bailliu" . Retrieved 2021-11-18.
  2. 1 2 3 4 "Jeannine Bailliu". www.bankofcanada.ca. Retrieved 2019-04-02.
  3. ↑ "Jeannine Bailliu". LinkedIn. March 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  4. ↑ "Bank of Canada note saw loonie undervalued". Regina Leader-Post . Reuters. August 14, 2006. p. 15. Retrieved April 4, 2019– via newspapers.com.
  5. 1 2 3 Bailliu, Jeannine; Kruger, Mark; Toktamyssov, Argyn; Welbourn, Wheaton (April 2016). "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom's Prospects to 2030" (PDF). International Economic Analysis Department– via Bank of Canada.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Bailliu, Jeannine; Hajzler, Christopher (Autumn 2016). "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies" (PDF). Bank of Canada Review.
  7. 1 2 3 4 Bailliu, Jeannine; Lawrence, Robert; Perrault, Jean-Francios (November 2000). "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Emerging Markets". Bank of Canada.
  8. ↑ Bailliu, Jeannine (July 2000). "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries". Bank of Canada.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Baillui, Jeannine; Blagrave, Patrick (July 2010). "The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach". Bank of Canada.
  10. 1 2 3 Bailliu, Jeannine (July 2000). "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, Economic Growth and Developing Countries" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  11. ↑ Bailliu, Jeannine; Murray, John (December 2002). "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  12. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Garcas, Daniel; Kruger, Mark; Messmacher, Miguel (June 2003). "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Cast of Mexico". Bank of Canada.
  13. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Bouakez, Hafdeh (May 2004). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  14. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Eiji, Fujii (June 2004). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation". Bank of Canada.
  15. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; King, Micheal (July 2005). "What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  16. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Dib, Ali; Takashi, Kano; Schembri, Lawrence (July 2007). "Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies". Bank of Canada.
  17. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Dong, Wei; Murray, John (November 2010). "Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from Literature" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  18. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Kartashova, Katsiaryna; Meh, Celsaire (February 2012). "Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada" (PDF). Bank of Canada.
  19. ↑ Heath, Jason (June 15, 2012). "No one safe from risks on horizon". National Post . p. 41. Retrieved April 4, 2019– via newspapers.com.
  20. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Meh, Césaire; Zhang, Yahong (February 2012). "Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter". Bank of Canada.
  21. ↑ Baillui, Jeannine; Han, Xinfen; Kruger, Mark; Liu, Yu-Hsien; Thanabalasingam, Sri (March 2018). "Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?". Bank of Canada.
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