In probability theory, Lorden's inequality is a bound for the moments of overshoot for a stopped sum of random variables, first published by Gary Lorden in 1970. [1] Overshoots play a central role in renewal theory. [2]
Let X1, X2, ... be independent and identically distributed positive random variables and define the sum Sn = X1 + X2 + ... + Xn. Consider the first time Sn exceeds a given value b and at that time compute Rb = Sn − b. Rb is called the overshoot or excess at b. Lorden's inequality states that the expectation of this overshoot is bounded as [2]
Three proofs are known due to Lorden, [1] Carlsson and Nerman [3] and Chang. [4]
In probability theory, the expected value is a generalization of the weighted average. Informally, the expected value is the arithmetic mean of a large number of independently selected outcomes of a random variable.
In statistics and probability theory, the median is the value separating the higher half from the lower half of a data sample, a population, or a probability distribution. For a data set, it may be thought of as "the middle" value. The basic feature of the median in describing data compared to the mean is that it is not skewed by a small proportion of extremely large or small values, and therefore provides a better representation of the center. Median income, for example, may be a better way to describe center of the income distribution because increases in the largest incomes alone have no effect on median. For this reason, the median is of central importance in robust statistics.
In probability theory, the central limit theorem (CLT) establishes that, in many situations, for independent and identically distributed random variables, the sampling distribution of the standardized sample mean tends towards the standard normal distribution even if the original variables themselves are not normally distributed.
In probability theory, Chebyshev's inequality guarantees that, for a wide class of probability distributions, no more than a certain fraction of values can be more than a certain distance from the mean. Specifically, no more than 1/k2 of the distribution's values can be k or more standard deviations away from the mean. The rule is often called Chebyshev's theorem, about the range of standard deviations around the mean, in statistics. The inequality has great utility because it can be applied to any probability distribution in which the mean and variance are defined. For example, it can be used to prove the weak law of large numbers.
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and tends to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed.
In mathematics, Jensen's inequality, named after the Danish mathematician Johan Jensen, relates the value of a convex function of an integral to the integral of the convex function. It was proved by Jensen in 1906, building on an earlier proof of the same inequality for doubly-differentiable functions by Otto Hölder in 1889. Given its generality, the inequality appears in many forms depending on the context, some of which are presented below. In its simplest form the inequality states that the convex transformation of a mean is less than or equal to the mean applied after convex transformation; it is a simple corollary that the opposite is true of concave transformations.
In statistics, the Rao–Blackwell theorem, sometimes referred to as the Rao–Blackwell–Kolmogorov theorem, is a result which characterizes the transformation of an arbitrarily crude estimator into an estimator that is optimal by the mean-squared-error criterion or any of a variety of similar criteria.
In probability and statistics, a mixture distribution is the probability distribution of a random variable that is derived from a collection of other random variables as follows: first, a random variable is selected by chance from the collection according to given probabilities of selection, and then the value of the selected random variable is realized. The underlying random variables may be random real numbers, or they may be random vectors, in which case the mixture distribution is a multivariate distribution.
In probability theory, a Chernoff bound is an exponentially decreasing upper bound on the tail of a random variable based on its moment generating function. The minimum of all such exponential bounds forms the Chernoff or Chernoff-Cramér bound, which may decay faster than exponential. It is especially useful for sums of independent random variables, such as sums of Bernoulli random variables.
In probability theory, Hoeffding's inequality provides an upper bound on the probability that the sum of bounded independent random variables deviates from its expected value by more than a certain amount. Hoeffding's inequality was proven by Wassily Hoeffding in 1963.
In probability theory, Wald's equation, Wald's identity or Wald's lemma is an important identity that simplifies the calculation of the expected value of the sum of a random number of random quantities. In its simplest form, it relates the expectation of a sum of randomly many finite-mean, independent and identically distributed random variables to the expected number of terms in the sum and the random variables' common expectation under the condition that the number of terms in the sum is independent of the summands.
In probability theory and statistics, the Rademacher distribution is a discrete probability distribution where a random variate X has a 50% chance of being +1 and a 50% chance of being -1.
In mathematics, Doob's martingale inequality, also known as Kolmogorov’s submartingale inequality is a result in the study of stochastic processes. It gives a bound on the probability that a submartingale exceeds any given value over a given interval of time. As the name suggests, the result is usually given in the case that the process is a martingale, but the result is also valid for submartingales.
In probability theory, Bernstein inequalities give bounds on the probability that the sum of random variables deviates from its mean. In the simplest case, let X1, ..., Xn be independent Bernoulli random variables taking values +1 and −1 with probability 1/2, then for every positive ,
Stein's method is a general method in probability theory to obtain bounds on the distance between two probability distributions with respect to a probability metric. It was introduced by Charles Stein, who first published it in 1972, to obtain a bound between the distribution of a sum of -dependent sequence of random variables and a standard normal distribution in the Kolmogorov (uniform) metric and hence to prove not only a central limit theorem, but also bounds on the rates of convergence for the given metric.
In mathematics, the second moment method is a technique used in probability theory and analysis to show that a random variable has positive probability of being positive. More generally, the "moment method" consists of bounding the probability that a random variable fluctuates far from its mean, by using its moments.
In probability theory, Bennett's inequality provides an upper bound on the probability that the sum of independent random variables deviates from its expected value by more than any specified amount. Bennett's inequality was proved by George Bennett of the University of New South Wales in 1962.
In probability theory, concentration inequalities provide bounds on how a random variable deviates from some value. The law of large numbers of classical probability theory states that sums of independent random variables are, under very mild conditions, close to their expectation with a large probability. Such sums are the most basic examples of random variables concentrated around their mean. Recent results show that such behavior is shared by other functions of independent random variables.
For certain applications in linear algebra, it is useful to know properties of the probability distribution of the largest eigenvalue of a finite sum of random matrices. Suppose is a finite sequence of random matrices. Analogous to the well-known Chernoff bound for sums of scalars, a bound on the following is sought for a given parameter t:
In the mathematical theory of probability, Janson's inequality is a collection of related inequalities giving an exponential bound on the probability of many related events happening simultaneously by their pairwise dependence. Informally Janson's inequality involves taking a sample of many independent random binary variables, and a set of subsets of those variables and bounding the probability that the sample will contain any of those subsets by their pairwise correlation.
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