In statistics, the likelihood principle is the proposition that, given a statistical model, all the evidence in a sample relevant to model parameters is contained in the likelihood function.
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to deduce properties of an underlying probability distribution. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population.
In statistics, a likelihood function is a function
of parameters
within the parameter space
that describes the probability of obtaining the observed data
. It is proportional—up to a function of only the observed data—to the joint probability distribution of
given
. The likelihood principle states that all relevant information for inference about
is contained in the likelihood function for the observed data given the assumed statistical model. The case for using likelihood in the foundation of statistics was first made by the founder of modern statistics, R. A. Fisher, who believed it to be a self-contained framework for statistical modelling and inference. But the likelihood function also plays a fundamental role in frequentist and Bayesian statistics.
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability".
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of a statistical model so the observed data is most probable. Specifically, this is done by finding the value of the parameter
that maximizes the likelihood function
, which is the joint probability of the observed data
, over a parameter space
. The point
that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of inference within much of the quantitative research of the social and medical sciences.
Molecular phylogenetics is the branch of phylogeny that analyzes genetic, hereditary molecular differences, predominately in DNA sequences, to gain information on an organism's evolutionary relationships. From these analyses, it is possible to determine the processes by which diversity among species has been achieved. The result of a molecular phylogenetic analysis is expressed in a phylogenetic tree. Molecular phylogenetics is one aspect of molecular systematics, a broader term that also includes the use of molecular data in taxonomy and biogeography.
In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter. More formally, it is the application of a point estimator to the data to obtain a point estimate.
Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event, which can change as new information is gathered, rather than a fixed value based upon frequency or propensity. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after a large number of trials.
Mathematical statistics is the application of probability theory, a branch of mathematics, to statistics, as opposed to techniques for collecting statistical data. Specific mathematical techniques which are used for this include mathematical analysis, linear algebra, stochastic analysis, differential equations, and measure theory.
In statistics, a generalized additive model (GAM) is a generalized linear model in which the linear predictor depends linearly on unknown smooth functions of some predictor variables, and interest focuses on inference about these smooth functions.
GAMs were originally developed by Trevor Hastie and Robert Tibshirani to blend properties of generalized linear models with additive models.
In statistics, M-estimators are a broad class of extremum estimators for which the objective function is a sample average. Both non-linear least squares and maximum likelihood estimation are special cases of M-estimators. The definition of M-estimators was motivated by robust statistics, which contributed new types of M-estimators. The statistical procedure of evaluating an M-estimator on a data set is called M-estimation.
In statistics, a support curve is the graph of the natural logarithm of the likelihood function. It has a relation to, but is distinct from, the support of a distribution.
The foundations of statistics concern the epistemological debate in statistics over how one should conduct inductive inference from data. Among the issues considered in statistical inference are the question of Bayesian inference versus frequentist inference, the distinction between Fisher's "significance testing" and Neyman–Pearson "hypothesis testing", and whether the likelihood principle should be followed. Some of these issues have been debated for up to 200 years without resolution.
In statistics, the method of estimating equations is a way of specifying how the parameters of a statistical model should be estimated. This can be thought of as a generalisation of many classical methods --- the method of moments, least squares, and maximum likelihood --- as well as some recent methods like M-estimators.
A quasi-maximum likelihood estimate is an estimate of a parameter θ in a statistical model that is formed by maximizing a function that is related to the logarithm of the likelihood function, but in discussing the consistency and (asymptotic) variance-covariance matrix, we assume some parts of the distribution may be mis-specified. In contrast, the maximum likelihood estimate maximizes the actual log likelihood function for the data and model. The function that is maximized to form a QMLE is often a simplified form of the actual log likelihood function. A common way to form such a simplified function is to use the log-likelihood function of a misspecified model that treats certain data values as being independent, even when in actuality they may not be. This removes any parameters from the model that are used to characterize these dependencies. Doing this only makes sense if the dependency structure is a nuisance parameter with respect to the goals of the analysis.
Bayesian econometrics is a branch of econometrics which applies Bayesian principles to economic modelling. Bayesianism is based on a degree-of-belief interpretation of probability, as opposed to a relative-frequency interpretation.
In Bayesian inference, the Bernstein–von Mises theorem provides the basis for the important result that the posterior distribution for unknown quantities in any problem is effectively asymptotically independent of the prior distribution as the data sample grows large.
In mathematics, statistics, and computational modelling, a grey box model combines a partial theoretical structure with data to complete the model. The theoretical structure may vary from information on the smoothness of results, to models that need only parameter values from data or existing literature. Thus, almost all models are grey box models as opposed to black box where no model form is assumed or white box models that are purely theoretical. Some models assume a special form such as a linear regression or neural network. These have special analysis methods. In particular linear regression techniques are much more efficient than most non-linear techniques. The model can be deterministic or stochastic depending on its planned use.
Likelihoodist statistics or likelihoodism is an approach to statistics that exclusively or primarily uses the likelihood function. Likelihoodist statistics is a more minor school than the main approaches of Bayesian statistics and frequentist statistics, but has some adherents and applications. The central idea of likelihoodism is the likelihood principle: data are interpreted as evidence, and the strength of the evidence is measured by the likelihood function. Beyond this, there are significant differences within likelihood approaches: "orthodox" likelihoodists consider data only as evidence, and do not use it as the basis of statistical inference, while others make inferences based on likelihood, but without using Bayesian inference or frequentist inference. Likelihoodism is thus criticized for either not providing a basis for belief or action, or not satisfying the requirements of these other schools.
