Morgan Kelly (economist)

Last updated

Morgan Kelly
Alma mater Trinity College Dublin,
Yale University
OccupationAcademic
Employer University College Dublin (UCD)
Known forPredicting the end of the Irish property bubble

Morgan Kelly is Professor of Economics at University College Dublin (UCD). Described by The Irish Times as the country's official soothsayer, [1] Kelly notably predicted the bursting of the Irish property bubble.

Contents

Background

Kelly studied at Trinity College Dublin being elected to scholarship in 1982 and graduating in economic and social studies with a gold medal in 1984. [2] He subsequently studied in Yale University in the United States. He was assistant professor at Cornell University, College Lecturer at UCD and is now Professor at UCD. He has refereed numerous international economic journals. [3]

Predictions

Kelly predicted in 2006 that property prices were going to crash by 50% based on empirical evidence of past property crashes. Kelly has garnered praise from fellow economists for his prediction of the collapse of the property market. [4]

In July 2007, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern implicitly criticised Kelly for his articles predicting a property crash:

Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something. [5]

Ahern subsequently apologised for the reference to suicide in his remark. [6] [7]

Kelly takes the view that the Irish state should not have put itself forward as guarantor for the Irish banks in September 2008. [8]

As of May 2011, Kelly suggests that bankruptcy for the state of Ireland is a possibility. [9]

Related Research Articles

The Irish Times is an Irish daily broadsheet newspaper and online digital publication. It launched on 29 March 1859. The editor is Paul O'Neill. The deputy editor is Deirdre Veldon. It is published every day except Sundays. The Irish Times is considered a newspaper of record for Ireland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Central Bank of Ireland</span> Central Bank of Ireland

The Central Bank of Ireland is Ireland's central bank, and as such part of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It is the country's financial services regulator for most categories of financial firms. It was the issuer of Irish pound banknotes and coinage until the introduction of the Euro currency, and now provides this service for the European Central Bank.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David McWilliams (economist)</span> Journalist, broadcaster and economist from Dublin

David McWilliams is an Irish economist, writer, and journalist. McWilliams initially worked as an economist with the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS bank and the Banque Nationale de Paris. Since 1999, he has been a broadcaster, writer, economic commentator and documentary-maker. He has written five books, The Pope's Children , The Generation Game, Follow the Money, The Good Room and Renaissance Nation, and written regular columns for the Irish Times and Irish Independent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Irish property bubble</span> Irish mid 2000s asset price bubble

The Irish property bubble was the speculative excess element of a long-term price increase of real estate in the Republic of Ireland from the early 2000s to 2007, a period known as the later part of the Celtic Tiger. In 2006, the prices peaked at the top of the bubble, with a combination of increased speculative construction and rapidly rising prices; in 2007 the prices first stabilised and then started to fall until 2010 following the shock effect of the Great Recession. By the second quarter of 2010, house prices in Ireland had fallen by 35% compared with the second quarter of 2007, and the number of housing loans approved fell by 73%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bertie Ahern</span> 11th Taoiseach from 1997 to 2008

Bartholomew Patrick "Bertie" Ahern is an Irish former Fianna Fáil politician who served as Taoiseach from 1997 to 2008, Leader of Fianna Fáil from 1994 to 2008, Leader of the Opposition from 1994 to 1997, Tánaiste and Minister for Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht from November 1994 to December 1994, Deputy Leader of Fianna Fáil from 1992 to 1994, Minister for Industry and Commerce in January 1993, Minister for Finance from 1991 to 1994, Minister for Labour from 1987 to 1991, Government Chief Whip and Minister of State at the Department of Defence from March 1982 to December 1982 and Lord Mayor of Dublin from 1986 to 1987. He served as a Teachta Dála (TD) from 1977 to 2011.

Templeogue College C.S.Sp is a boys' voluntary secondary school in the suburb of Templeogue, Dublin in Ireland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Catholic University School</span> Private secondary school in Dublin, Ireland

Catholic University School(C.U.S.) is a private (voluntary) secondary school for boys in Dublin, Ireland. The school was founded in 1867 by Bartholomew Woodlock as a preparatory school for the Catholic University of Ireland, the predecessor to University College Dublin, that was founded by St. John Henry Newman in 1854.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mary Fitzpatrick</span> Irish Fianna Fáil politician

Mary Fitzpatrick is an Irish Fianna Fáil politician who has served as a Senator since June 2020, after being nominated by the Taoiseach.

Events from the year 2008 in Ireland.

Philip Richard Lane is an Irish economist who has served as a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and concurrently in not statutory position of ECB chief economist since June 2019. He previously served as the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2015 to 2019. As ECB Chief Economist, Lane seen by many to provide an academic counterweight to the traditional political abilities of ECB President, Christine Lagarde.

Patrick Lynch MRIA was an Irish economist. He believed in economic development and the co-ordination of government policy, including fiscal, social and monetary measures to invest in education and joining the European Economic Community. He favoured empirical education economics in Ireland and development economics flowing from investment in science.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Free Education for Everyone</span> Student campaign in Ireland

Free Education for Everyone (FEE) was an Irish student campaign group which was set up in September 2008 in University College Dublin (UCD) to fight the proposed re-introduction of university fees. FEE was active in Ireland's main universities, including University of Limerick (UL), University College Dublin (UCD), Trinity College Dublin (TCD), NUI Maynooth (NUIM), University College Cork (UCC) and NUI Galway (NUIG), and Queen's University Belfast.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">George Lee (journalist)</span> Irish economist, journalist (born 1962)

George Lee is an Irish economist, journalist, television and radio presenter, and former Fine Gael politician. He has worked for RTÉ since 1992. Since 2019, he has been Environment Correspondent for RTÉ News and Current Affairs. He previously was Economics Editor in 1996.

Paul Gallagher SC is an Irish barrister who is Attorney General of Ireland since June 2020, having previously held the position from 2007 to 2011. During his first term as Attorney General, there was a period of significant economic difficulty in the Republic of Ireland, causing him to advise on the bank guarantee scheme, the establishment of the National Asset Management Agency and the Troika programme.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">University College Dublin Law Society</span> Student debating society

The UCD Law Society is one of the largest student societies in Europe. Established in 1911 as 'The Legal and Economic Society', it has over 4100 members drawn from the various faculties of the university. Weekly Tuesday night debates during term are the society's core activity. Individuals who have addressed the society include President of Ireland Michael D. Higgins, former Irish Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern and President of the European Council Donald Tusk. The society's motto is "Ar son na Córa". The current Auditor is Fiachra Nolan.

Maev-Ann Wren is an Irish economist, journalist, author, and former special advisor to the Minister of State at the Department of Health, Roisin Shortall. She is the former economics editor of The Irish Times newspaper. Wren has written two books about the Irish health system and her writings have often been mentioned during Dáil and Seanad debates, and in parliamentary committee. She has been described in the Seanad as "a recognised expert on health care."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Yvonne Farrell</span> Irish architect

Yvonne Farrell is an Irish architect and academic. She is the co-founder, together with Shelley McNamara, of Grafton Architects, which won the World Building of the Year award in 2008 for their Bocconi University building in Milan. The practice won the inaugural RIBA International Prize in 2016 for their Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología building in Lima, Peru, and was awarded the 2020 Royal Gold Medal. In 2017 she was appointed, along with Shelley McNamara, as curator of the 16th Venice Biennale of Architecture in 2018. She won the Pritzker Architecture Prize in 2020, also with McNamara.

Jim Power is a self-employed economist, previously Chief Economist at Friends First, a subsidiary of insurance multinational Achmea. From Waterford, Ireland, he is married and has children.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">University College Dublin</span> University in Dublin, Ireland, part of the National University of Ireland

University College Dublin is a public research university in Dublin, Ireland, and a member institution of the National University of Ireland. With 33,284 students, it is Ireland's largest university, and amongst the most prestigious universities in the country. Five Nobel Laureates are among UCD's alumni and current and former staff. Additionally, four Irish Taoiseach and three Irish Presidents have graduated from UCD, along with one President of India.

The University College Dublin Economics Society is a group that promotes engagement with economics while promoting a "feeling of community" in University College Dublin among students interested in economics. The society has over 700 members drawn from different faculties in the college. Individuals who have addressed the society had included Governor of the Irish Central Bank Patrick Honohan, and economists David McWilliams and Morgan Kelly.

References

  1. "A handful of winners and a lot of losers populated Ireland's bleak landscape this year". The Irish Times. Irish Times Trust.
  2. List of Scholars
  3. "UCD School of Economics". University College Dublin.
  4. Kelly, Morgan (28 December 2006). "How the housing corner stones of our economy could go into a rapid freefall". The Irish Times . Retrieved 21 April 2015.
  5. McDermott, Peter (14 December 2010). "Less dogma, more dialogue needed in economics". The Irish Echo . New York. OCLC   4988765.
  6. Freefall, RTÉ Television. Broadcast September 2010.
  7. Murphy, Claire (27 August 2010). "Bertie blames banks for all our cash woes". Evening Herald. herald.ie. Retrieved 27 August 2010.)
  8. Kelly, Morgan (10 November 2010). "Op-Ed piece". The Irish Times. Irish Times Trust. Retrieved 10 November 2010.
  9. Kelly, Morgan (14 May 2011). "Op-Ed piece". The Irish Times. Irish Times Trust. Retrieved 14 May 2011.