 | It has been suggested that this article be merged into Two envelopes problem . (Discuss) Proposed since April 2025. |
 | This article includes a list of general references, but it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations .(February 2015) |
The necktie paradox is a puzzle and paradox with a subjective interpretation of probability theory describing a paradoxical bet advantageous to both involved parties. The two-envelope paradox is a variation of the necktie paradox.
Two persons, each given a necktie, start arguing over who has the cheaper one. The person with the more expensive necktie must give it to the other person.
The first person reasons as follows: winning and losing are equally likely. If I lose, then I will lose the value of my necktie. But if I win, then I will win more than the value of my necktie. Therefore, the wager is to my advantage. The second person can consider the wager in exactly the same way; thus, paradoxically, it seems both persons have the advantage in the bet. [1]