Norman Harry Packard (born 1954 in Billings, Montana) [1] is a chaos theory physicist and one of the founders of the Prediction Company and ProtoLife. He is an alumnus of Reed College and the University of California, Santa Cruz [ citation needed ]. Packard is known for his contributions to chaos theory, complex systems, and artificial life. He coined the phrase "the edge of chaos". [2] [3]
Between 1976 and 1981, Packard formed the Dynamical Systems Collective at UC Santa Cruz with fellow physics graduate students, Rob Shaw, Doyne Farmer, and James Crutchfield. The collective was best known for its work in probing chaotic systems for signs of order. [4]
Around the same time, he worked with Doyne Farmer and other friends in Santa Cruz, California to form the Eudaemons collective, to develop a strategy for beating the roulette wheel using a toe-operated computer. The computer could, in theory, predict in what area a roulette ball would land on a wheel, giving the player a significant statistical advantage over the house. Although the project itself was a success, they ran into practical difficulty employing the technique on-site in Las Vegas casinos. The experiences of Norman, Doyne Farmer, and crew were later chronicled in the book The Eudaemonic Pie (1985) by Thomas Bass. Their experience was also chronicled on the History Channel television series "Breaking Vegas."
In 1982, Packard won a NATO post-doctoral fellowship to study at the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques in Bures-sur-Yvette, France. One year later, he joined the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study. At the IAS, he worked with colleagues Stephen Wolfram and Rob Shaw to explain complex systems and the tendency for matter to organize itself. Subsequently, Packard has made contributions to the field of Artificial Life, including the definition of Evolutionary Activity. [5]
In 1985 Packard moved with Wolfram to the physics department of the University of Illinois, where they founded the Center for Complex Systems Research.
Packard was involved with the Santa Fe Institute over many years, serving in several capacities including External Professor and member of the chair of the Science Steering Committee.
In the spring of 1985, Packard and Doyne Farmer realized that their research in fields such as chaos, Genetic Algorithms and cellular automata could help build a system for predicting the stock market. Five years later they founded Prediction Company, a small company in Santa Fe, NM dedicated to making a model for predicting what a market would do during a certain time period. A brief outline of some of the genetic algorithm techniques he used in the early days is presented in chapter 2 of reference 5 below. In 2004, Prediction Company received the "Employer of Choice" award in the small size category for the State of New Mexico. [6] Prediction Company was eventually acquired by UBS.
In 2004, Packard was one of the founders of the European Centre for Living Technology (ECLT), hosted by the University of Venice, Ca' Foscari. [7] The ECLT received its first funding from PACE (Programmable Artificial Cell Evolution), a project coordinated by John S. McCaskill and funded by the European Union. [8] From its inception in 2004 and for over a decade Packard has served on its science board, and as co-director.
While in Venice, Packard founded ProtoLife, the first company to capitalize on living technology. The goal of the company is to optimize complex chemical reactions and other complex processes. The company was launched in Venice, Italy, and is currently based in San Francisco having changed name to Daptics [9] (see below).
In 2011 Packard joined Lucky Sort [10] as Chief Science Officer. At Lucky Sort he guides research to discover and display structure in high volume text data streams. Lucky Sort was eventually acquired by Twitter.
In 2018, Packard launched a web-based optimization and discovery tool on the internet (a form of Software as a Service), changing the company name from ProtoLife to Daptics, [11] to better reflect its new focus. The goal of the company is to optimize complex chemical reactions and other complex processes. The company is currently based in San Francisco.
Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary area of scientific study and branch of mathematics. It focuses on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. These were once thought to have completely random states of disorder and irregularities. Chaos theory states that within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnection, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals and self-organization. The butterfly effect, an underlying principle of chaos, describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. A metaphor for this behavior is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas.
A computer algebra system (CAS) or symbolic algebra system (SAS) is any mathematical software with the ability to manipulate mathematical expressions in a way similar to the traditional manual computations of mathematicians and scientists. The development of the computer algebra systems in the second half of the 20th century is part of the discipline of "computer algebra" or "symbolic computation", which has spurred work in algorithms over mathematical objects such as polynomials.
In computer science, evolutionary computation is a family of algorithms for global optimization inspired by biological evolution, and the subfield of artificial intelligence and soft computing studying these algorithms. In technical terms, they are a family of population-based trial and error problem solvers with a metaheuristic or stochastic optimization character.
Tierra is a computer simulation developed by ecologist Thomas S. Ray in the early 1990s in which computer programs compete for time and space. In this context, the computer programs in Tierra are considered to be evolvable and can mutate, self-replicate and recombine. Tierra's virtual machine is written in C. It operates on a custom instruction set designed to facilitate code changes and reordering, including features such as jump to template.
Ray Solomonoff was an American mathematician who invented algorithmic probability, his General Theory of Inductive Inference, and was a founder of algorithmic information theory. He was an originator of the branch of artificial intelligence based on machine learning, prediction and probability. He circulated the first report on non-semantic machine learning in 1956.
The edge of chaos is a transition space between order and disorder that is hypothesized to exist within a wide variety of systems. This transition zone is a region of bounded instability that engenders a constant dynamic interplay between order and disorder.
The Santa Fe Institute (SFI) is an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute located in Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States and dedicated to the multidisciplinary study of the fundamental principles of complex adaptive systems, including physical, computational, biological, and social systems. The institute is ranked 24th among the world's "Top Science and Technology Think Tanks" and 24th among the world's "Best Transdisciplinary Research Think Tanks" according to the 2020 edition of the Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports, published annually by the University of Pennsylvania.
Christopher Gale Langton is an American computer scientist and one of the founders of the field of artificial life. He coined the term in the late 1980s when he organized the first "Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems" at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1987. Following his time at Los Alamos, Langton joined the Santa Fe Institute (SFI), to continue his research on artificial life. He left SFI in the late 1990s, and abandoned his work on artificial life, publishing no research since that time.
In artificial intelligence, artificial immune systems (AIS) are a class of computationally intelligent, rule-based machine learning systems inspired by the principles and processes of the vertebrate immune system. The algorithms are typically modeled after the immune system's characteristics of learning and memory for use in problem-solving.
Thomas S. Ray is an evolutionary biologist known for his research in tropical biology, digital evolution, and the human mind.
John Henry Holland was an American scientist and professor of psychology and electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. He was a pioneer in what became known as genetic algorithms.
J. Doyne Farmer is an American complex systems scientist and entrepreneur with interests in chaos theory, complexity and econophysics. He is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, where he is also director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. Additionally he is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is on complexity economics, focusing on systemic risk in financial markets and technological progress. During his career he has made important contributions to complex systems, chaos, artificial life, theoretical biology, time series forecasting and econophysics. He co-founded Prediction Company, one of the first companies to do fully automated quantitative trading. While a graduate student he led a group that called itself Eudaemonic Enterprises and built the first wearable digital computer, which was used to beat the game of roulette. He is a founder and the Chief Scientist of Macrocosm Inc, a company devoted to scaling up complexity economics methods and reducing them to practice.
William Lionel Burke was an astronomy, astrophysics, and physics professor at UC Santa Cruz. He is also the author of Spacetime, Geometry, Cosmology (ISBN 0-935702-01-6), and of Applied differential geometry (ISBN 0-521-26929-6), a text expounding the virtues of differential forms over vector calculus for theoretical physics. Bill also has a draft of a 3rd book reachable on the web |Div, Grad, Curl are Dead].
Steen Rasmussen is a Danish physicist mainly working in the areas of artificial life and complex systems. He is currently a professor in physics and a center director at University of Southern Denmark as well as an external research professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His formal training was at the Technical University of Denmark and University of Copenhagen (philosophy). He spent 20 years as a researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory (1988-2007) the last five years as a leader of the Self-Organized Systems team. He has been part of the Santa Fe Institute since 1988.
Prediction Company was founded in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, in March 1991 by J. Doyne Farmer, Norman Packard, and James McGill. The company used forecasting techniques to build black-box trading systems for financial markets, mainly employing statistical learning theory. In September 1992, Prediction Company entered into an exclusive contract with O'Connor and Associates, a Chicago derivatives trading house, to provide investment advice and technology. Soon after O'Connor merged with Swiss Bank Corporation, which later merged with Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS). Prediction Company's contract was renewed multiple times and in 2005 UBS purchased Prediction Company outright. After being a wholly owned subsidiary of UBS, Prediction Company was acquired in 2013 by an affiliate of Millennium Partners, L.P.
Robert Stetson Shaw is an American physicist who was part of Eudaemonic Enterprises in Santa Cruz in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In 1988 he was awarded a MacArthur Fellowship for his work in chaos theory.
The Eudaemons were a small group headed by graduate physics students J. Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard at the University of California Santa Cruz in the late 1970s. The group's immediate objective was to find a way to beat roulette using a concealed computer, with the ulterior motive of using the money made from roulette to fund a scientific community. The name of the group was inspired by the eudaimonism philosophy.
James P. Crutchfield is an American mathematician and physicist. He received his B.A. summa cum laude in physics and mathematics from the University of California, Santa Cruz, in 1979 and his Ph.D. in physics there in 1983. He is currently a professor of physics at the University of California, Davis, where he is director of the Complexity Sciences Center—a new research and graduate program in complex systems. Prior to this, he was research professor at the Santa Fe Institute for many years, where he ran the Dynamics of Learning Group and SFI's Network Dynamics Program. From 1985 to 1997, he was a research physicist in the physics department at the University of California, Berkeley. He has been a visiting research professor at the Sloan Center for Theoretical Neurobiology, University of California, San Francisco; a postdoctoral fellow of the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science at UCB; a UCB physics department IBM postdoctoral fellow in condensed matter physics; a distinguished visiting research professor of the Beckman Institute at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; and a Bernard Osher Fellow at the San Francisco Exploratorium.
Artificial life is a field of study wherein researchers examine systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, through the use of simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. The discipline was named by Christopher Langton, an American theoretical biologist, in 1986. In 1987, Langton organized the first conference on the field, in Los Alamos, New Mexico. There are three main kinds of alife, named for their approaches: soft, from software; hard, from hardware; and wet, from biochemistry. Artificial life researchers study traditional biology by trying to recreate aspects of biological phenomena.
Living technology is the field of technology that derives its functionality and usefulness from the properties that make natural organisms alive. It may be seen as a technological subfield of both artificial life and complex systems and is relevant beyond biotechnology to nanotechnology, information technology, artificial intelligence, environmental technology and socioeconomic technology for managing human society.
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