Opinion polling for the 2007 Philippine Senate election

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Opinion polling (locally known as "surveys") is carried out by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations (SWS), and Pulse Asia, with a handful of minor polling firms.

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The Philippines uses plurality-at-large voting for senate elections. A voter has up to 12 votes, with the twelve candidates with the highest number of votes being elected. Political parties produce tickets; if their slate fail to reach 12 members, they may recruit other candidates from other parties as guest candidates; these guest candidates are not obliged to follow the policies of the slates that adopted them. Each candidate may be a member of different slates.

A typical poll asks a person to name twelve persons one would vote for in the senate election. A pollster then ranks all candidates from highest to lowest; the candidates at the top 12 are deemed "safe", while those below the top 12 but whose margin of error is within the 12th placed candidate's figure are "statistically tied" with the 12th placed candidate. In this system, a pollster can determine how many seats each ticket can win since the entire country is a single at-large "district"; this is unlike polling in other countries not using proportional representation for elections in legislatures where while a poll may give how a party may perform in the national vote but the number of seats that could have won is otherwise distorted due to the way the districts are drawn or to local variations.

Winning candidates

Pollster Pulse Asia [1] SWS [2] Pulse Asia [3] SWS [2] Pulse Asia [4] SWS [2] SWS [2]
Date(s) administeredJanuary 25–28, 2007February 22–27, 2007February 26–March 5, 2007March 15–18, 2007April 3–5, 2007April 14–17, 2007May 2–4, 2007
Sample size1,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,200
Margin of error±3.0%±3.0%±3.0%±3.0%±3.0%±3.0%±3.0%
Candidates (Party; ticket)1   Legarda (NPC; GO), 46.6%   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 57%   Legarda (NPC; GO), 56.8%   Legarda (NPC; GO), 58%   Legarda (NPC; GO), 56.8%   Legarda (NPC; GO), 58%   Legarda (NPC; GO), 59%
2   Lacson (UNO; GO), 34.6%
   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 34.6%		   Legarda (NPC; GO), 54%   Lacson (UNO; GO), 41.1%   Villar (NP; GO), 57%   Escudero (NPC; GO), 47.2%   Villar (NP; GO), 45%   Villar (NP; GO), 46%
3    Villar (NP; GO), 52%   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 39.4%   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 48%   Villar (NP; GO), 47.0%   Escudero (NPC; GO), 41%
   Lacson (UNO; GO), 41%		   Escudero (NPC; GO), 43%
4   Cayetano (NP; GO), 31.7%   Cayetano (NP; GO), 43%   Escudero (NPC; GO), 35.5%   Lacson (UNO; GO), 42%   Lacson (UNO; GO), 43.9%    Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 41%
5   Sotto (NPC; TU), 28.8%   Lacson (UNO; GO), 42%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 35.2%   Escudero (NPC; GO), 40%   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 38.8%   Pangilinan (LP; Ind), 39%   Lacson (UNO; GO), 39%
6   Villar (NP; GO), 26.4%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 37%   Villar (NP; GO), 35.0%   Cayetano (NP; GO), 39%   Cayetano (NP; GO), 38.2%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 36%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 36%
   Aquino (LP; GO), 36%
7   Recto (Lakas; TU), 26.0%   Escudero (NPC; GO), 36%   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 34.5%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 37%   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 35.7%   Angara (LDP; TU), 35%
8   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 25.8%   Sotto (NPC; TU), 31%   Aquino (LP; GO), 34.2%   Angara (LDP; TU), 32%   Aquino (LP; GO), 35.5%   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 32%   Cayetano (NP; GO), 34%
9   Ejercito (PMP; GO), 25.7%   Aquino (LP; GO), 30%
   Osmeña (UNO; GO), 30%		   Angara (LDP; TU), 32.1%   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 29%   Recto (Lakas; TU), 35.4%   Cayetano (NP; GO), 31%   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 32%
   Zubiri (Lakas; TU), 32%
10   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 24.4%    Cayetano (NP; GO), 30.9%   Aquino (LP; GO), 28%
   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 28%		   Angara (LDP; TU), 35.2%   Sotto (NPC; TU), 30%
11   Angara (LDP; TU), 24.0%   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 29%   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 27.3%    Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 33.4%

   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 28%
   Aquino (LP; GO), 28%
   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 28%

   Arroyo (KAMPI; TU), 31%
   Angara (LDP; TU), 35%

12   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 23.3%   Honasan (Ind; Ind), 28%   Sotto (NPC; TU), 25.4%

   Sotto (NPC; TU), 26%
   Osmeña (UNO; GO), 26%

   Zubiri (Lakas; TU), 32.0%
13   Escudero (NPC; GO), 23.2%

   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 27%
   Angara (LDP; TU), 27%

   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 23.1%   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 30.1%   Sotto (NPC; TU), 26%
14   Aquino (LP; GO), 22.5%   Magsaysay (Lakas; TU), 22.4%   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 25%   Sotto (NPC; TU), 29.2%   Zubiri (Lakas; TU), 25%   Pimentel (PDP Laban; GO), 25%
15   Osmeña (UNO; GO), 17.9%   Defensor (Lakas; TU), 21%   Roco (Aksyon; GO), 22.4%   Defensor (Lakas; TU), 21%   Roco (Aksyon; GO), 23%   Roco (Aksyon; GO), 27.1%   Defensor (Lakas; TU), 24%
   Trillanes (UNO; GO), 24%
None
Refused
Undecided		12.2%14%10%10.6%8.8%12%13%

Seats won

Candidates who were not make it to the top 12, but were within the margin of error from the 12th-placed candidate, are denoted by figures inside the parenthesis.

PollsterDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		PartiesCoalitions
KAMPI Lakas LDP LP NP NPC PDP
Laban 		UNO Ind GO Ind TEAM Unity
SWS [2] May 2–4, 20071,200±3.0%121222111624
SWS [2] Apr 14–17, 20071,200±3.0%11(+1)12231116(+1)24(+1)
Pulse Asia [3] Apr 3–5, 20071,200±3.0%1212230(+1)217(+1)24
SWS [2] Mar 15–18, 20071,200±3.0%1112230(+1)1(+1)16(+1)25
Pulse Asia [3] Feb 26–Mar 5, 20071,200±3.0%11(+1)12230(+1)116(+2)24(+1)
SWS [2] Feb 22–27, 20071,200±3.0%110(+1)2230(+1)216(+1)24(+1)
Pulse Asia [1] Jan 25–28, 20071,200±3.0%1111(+1)22(+1)1115(+2)24

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References

  1. 1 2 "Pulse Asia's January 2007 Pre-election Survey Media Release on Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences". Pulse Asia . 2007. Archived from the original on 2012-04-26. Retrieved 2011-12-28.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "AT THE SENATE HOMESTRETCH: GO 6, IND. 2, TU 4". Social Weather Stations . 2007-05-10. Archived from the original on 2012-04-07. Retrieved 2011-12-07.
  3. 1 2 3 "Pulse Asia's March 2007 Ulat ng Bayan Survey Media Release on Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences". Pulse Asia . 2007. Archived from the original on 2012-04-26. Retrieved 2011-12-28.
  4. ↑ "Pulse Asia's April 3 - 5, 2007 Pre-election Survey Media Release on Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences". Pulse Asia . 2007. Archived from the original on 2012-04-26. Retrieved 2011-12-28.
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