Opinion polling for the 2011 Peruvian general election

Last updated

Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2011 Peruvian general election.

Contents

President

First round

DateSource Keiko Fujimori Alejandro Toledo Ollanta Humala Pedro Pablo Kuczynski Luis Castañeda
January 2010Ipsos Apoyo [1] 18%9%15%3%23%
February 2010Ipsos Apoyo [2] 21%9%13%-22%
March 2010Ipsos Apoyo [3] 20%11%12%-20%
April 2010Ipsos Apoyo [4] 18%12%14%2%22%
May 2010Ipsos Apoyo [4] 18%13%13%2%22%
June 2010Ipsos Apoyo [5] 22%12%13%2%21%
July 2010Ipsos Apoyo [6] 22%14%12%2%20%
August 2010Ipsos Apoyo [7] 20%14%12%2%20%
August 2010Datum [8] 20%14%12%-19%
August 2010Imasen [9] 19.7%12.1%13.6%1.7%20.2%
September 2010CPI [10] 19.6%14.6%9.8%1.2%23.1%
September 2010Datum [11] 23%14%12%2%21%
September 2010Ipsos Apoyo [12] 24%16%14%2%19%
September 2010IMA [13] 25.2%19.3%11.8%-20.1%
October 2010Datum [14] 24%16%11%1%26%
October 2010Ipsos Apoyo [15] 23%16%11%2%24%
November 2010CPI [16] 19.6%20.5%8%1.2%24.1%
November 2010Ipsos Apoyo [17] 20%20%10%3%24%
December 2010IOP [18] 22%22%9%1%25%
December 2010Datum [19] 22%26%10%2%21%
December 2010IMA [20] 22.8%28.6%9.1%-21%
December 2010CPI [21] 19.3%22%9.8%3.3%24.6%
December 2010Ipsos Apoyo [22] 20%23%11%5%23%
December 2010IMA [23] 17.4%27.3%10.1%5.8%22.8%
January 2011Datum [24] 20%27%10%4%22%
January 2011CPI [25] 18.8%25.2%11.7%5%22.2%
January 2011Ipsos Apoyo [26] 22%27%10%5%19%
January 2011Imasen [27] 20.3%30.7%12.1%5%21.3%
February 2011IOP [28] 20.3%28.6%12%3.6%17.5%
February 2011Datum [29] 20%30%10%5%19%
February 2011CPI [30] 17.6%30.2%10.4%4.3%20.2%
February 2011Ipsos Apoyo [31] 22%28%12%6%18%
February 2011IMA [32] 20.7%36.5%11%4.4%19.9%
February 2011Datum [33] 19%28%11%5%19%
February 2011Ipsos Apoyo [34] 21%28%14%6%17%
February 2011CPI [35] 18.8%28.4%13.4%6.4%20.1%
March 2011Datum [36] 18%29%13%7%18%
March 2011Imasen [37] 19.2%30%14.1%6.4%19.6%
March 2011IOP [38] 19.3%26.6%15.5%10.6%17.3%
14 March 2011Ipsos Apoyo [39] 19%26%15%9%17%
21 March 2011Ipsos Apoyo [40] 19%23%17%14%14%
20 March 2011Datum [41] 17%20.2%18.5%12.7%15.5%
21 March 2011CPI [42] 20%20.5%15.7%14.9%17%
25 March 2011Datum [43] 16.1%19.4%17.6%17.5%15.5%
27 March 2011CPI [44] 19%18.6%21.2%16.1%15.5%
27 March 2011Ipsos Apoyo [45] 22.3%21.6%22.8%15.8%15%
31 March 2011Imasen [46] 17.6%23.9%21.9%16.9%13.8%
1 April 2011Datum [47] [48] 16.4%17.4%21.4%17.5%12.6%
3 April 2011Ipsos Apoyo [49] [50] 20.5%18.5%27.2%18.1%12.8%
3 April 2011CPI [51] 19.1%19.6%28.7%17.8%14.0%
3 April 2011Imasen [52] 18.2%20%25%16.5%11.6%
7 April 2011CPI [53] 21.5%15%29%19.3%
7 April 2011Ipsos Apoyo [54] 21.4%18.2%28%18.4%
8 April 2011Datum [55] 22.3%15.3%31.9%17.3%

There has been a lot of discussion about these polls. For instance, for a while the JNE enforced new regulations where people were obliged to give personal information. After protests by poll organisations and the people of Peru, these regulations were nullified since they were seen as an invasion of the privacy by the poll takers. [56] According to the JNE it is not permitted to publish new polls one week before the day of election. [57]

Ipsosapoyo polls 7 april.png

Second round

DateSource Ollanta Humala Keiko Fujimori
24 April 2011Ipsos Apoyo [58] 42%36%
28 April 2011CPI [59] 40.6%36.8%
29 April 2011Datum [60] [61] 41.5%40.3%
4 May 2011Ipsos Apoyo [62] 39%38%
7 May 2011IOP – PUCP [63] 40.7%40.5%
8 May 2011Ipsos Apoyo [64] 39%41%
12 May 2011Datum [65] 37.9%40.6%
15 May 2011CPI [66] 47.1%52.9%
15 May 2011Ipsos Apoyo [67] 48.9%51.1%
15 May 2011Datum [68] 40.2%46%
19 May 2011Datum [69] 41.8%45.4%
22 May 2011Ipsos Apoyo [70] 39%43%
22 May 2011CPI [71] 46.3%53.7%
26 May 2011Datum [72] 47.1%52.9%
27 May 2011IOP – PUCP [73] 42.3%42.8%
29 May 2011Ipsos Apoyo [74] 49.5%50.5%
29 May 2011CPI [75] 48.2%51.8%
29 May 2011Datum [76] 47.7%52.3%
1 June 2011Datum [77] 49.4%50.6%
1 June 2011Ipsos Apoyo [77] 48.9%51.1%
2 June 2011CPI [77] 50.5%49.5%
2 June 2011IOP – PUCP [77] 51.8%48.2%
3 June 2011Datum [78] 50.8%49.2%
4 June 2011Ipsos Apoyo [79] 51.9%48.1%
5 June 2011Ipsos Apoyo [79] 52.7%47.3%

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References

  1. ↑ "Opinión Data enero 2010 final" (PDF) (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 April 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  2. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ghislaine Liendo; Ricardo Sánchez; Silvia Milla; Maria Sol Delgado (15 February 2010). "Lourdes Flores y las próximas elecciones" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2011.
  3. ↑ "Presentación de PowerPoint" (PDF) (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 April 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  4. 1 2 "Presentación de PowerPoint" (PDF) (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 April 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Ghislaine; Liendo, Ghislaine; Pizarro, Alejandro; Sánchez, Ricardo; Mendiguri, Dimelsa (21 June 2010). "Lourdes se afianza y Keiko Avanza" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2011.
  6. ↑ "Presentación de PowerPoint" (PDF) (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 April 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  7. ↑ "Presentación de PowerPoint" (PDF) (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 April 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  8. ↑ "Keiko Fujimori superó a Luis Castañeda y lidera encuesta de Datum". El Comercio (in Spanish). El Comercio Perú. 3 September 2010. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  9. ↑ Encuestasperu (1 September 2010). "Luis Castañeda Lossio a nivel nacional tiene 20.2% frente al 19.7% de Keiko Fujimori segun ultima encuesta de IMASEN de agosto" (in Spanish). Encuestasperu.Com. Archived from the original on 10 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  10. ↑ ESTUDIO DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL PERÚ URBANO – Informe de resultados Archived 22 July 2011 at the Wayback Machine . 8–12 September 2010
  11. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. October 2010
  12. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ponce, Carlos; Pizarro, Alejandro; Arellano, Jose Carlos; Sánchez, Ricardo; Álvarez, Hugo (26 September 2010). "Susana Villarán mantiene el primer lugar" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Retrieved 7 June 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  13. ↑ "SONDEO NACIONAL IMA URBANO RURAL / 25 AL 30 DE SETIEMBRE 2010" (in Spanish). Ima-mark.com.pe. Archived from the original on 25 August 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  14. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. October 2010
  15. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Arenas, Lina; Liendo, Ghislaine; Sánchez, Ricardo; Àlvarez, Hugo; Morales, Milagros (18 October 2010). "Lecciones Electorales" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
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  17. ↑ AVANZA TOLEDO [ permanent dead link ]. Resumen de las encuestas a la opinión pública efectuadas. 22 November 2010
  18. ↑ [ dead link ]
  19. ↑ "Toledo desplaza a Castañeda y sube al primer lugar en las preferencias, según encuesta de Datum | El Comercio Perú" (in Spanish). Elcomercio.pe. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  20. ↑ "SONDEO NACIONAL URBANO-RURAL IMA / 2 AL 7 DE DICIEMBRE 2010" (in Spanish). Ima-mark.com.pe. Archived from the original on 25 August 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  21. ↑ "CIA" (PDF) (in Spanish). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  22. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ponce, Carlos; Casquero, Laura; Sánchez, Ricardo; Aguero, Jessica; Álvarez, Hugo (20 December 2010). "Toledo Empata Con Castañeda" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  23. ↑ "SONDEO NACIONAL URBANO IMA / 20 AL 23 DE DICIEMBRE 2010" (in Spanish). Ima-mark.com.pe. Archived from the original on 14 February 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  24. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. January 2011
  25. ↑ "CIA" (PDF) (in Spanish). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  26. ↑ Toledo adelante [ permanent dead link ]. Resumen de las encuestas a la opinión pública efectuadas. 17 January 2011
  27. ↑ "LaRepublica.pe" (in Spanish). LaRepublica.pe. Archived from the original on 7 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  28. ↑ Encuesta Nacional Urbana-Rural INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PRESIDENCIAL 2011. Instituto de Opinión Publica. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. February 2011
  29. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. February 2011
  30. ↑ "ESTUDIO DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL: PERU URBANO Y RURAL – Informe de resultados – (01 al 06 de febrero del 2011)" (PDF) (in Spanish). February 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  31. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Pizarro, Alejandro; Liendo, Ghislaine; Sánchez, Ricardo; Aliaga, Geraldine; Montoro, Giuliana; Boyco, Daniel (15 February 2011). "Toledo y Fujimori rumbo a la segundo vuelta" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  32. ↑ "SONDEO NACIONAL IMA URBANO RURAL 5 AL 10 DE FEBRERO 2011" (in Spanish). Ima-mark.com.pe. Archived from the original on 25 February 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  33. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. February 2011
  34. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Liendo, Ghislaine; Sánchez, Ricardo; Aliaga, Geraldine; Montoro, Giuliana; Boyco, Daniel (28 February 2011). "Todavía puede haber cambios" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  35. ↑ "CIA" (PDF) (in Spanish). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  36. ↑ "Diapositiva 1" (PDF). Datum Internacional Peru (in Spanish). Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 March 2012. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  37. ↑ "ENCUESTA SOBRE ELECCIONES ( NACIONAL )" (PDF) (in Spanish). IMASEN. 8 March 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 13 July 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  38. ↑ Fernando Tuesta Soldevilla; Edwin Cohaila; Lilia Condorhuaman; Oliver Glave; Alice López; Sandro Macassi; Vania Martinez; León Portocarrero; Eveling Salazar (14 March 2011). "Encuesta Nacional Urbana-Rural – INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PRESIDENCIAL 2011" (PDF). ESTADO DE LA OPINIÓN PÚBLICA (in Spanish). Instituto de Opinión Pública – Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú . Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  39. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ponce, Carlos; Sánchez, Ricardo; Agüero, Jessica; Aliaga, Geraldine; Montoro, Giuliana; Arellano, Jose Carlos (14 March 2011). "Encuestas y Simulacros de votación" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Retrieved 7 June 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  40. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ponce, Carlos; Sánchez, Ricardo; Agüero, Jessica; Aliaga, Geraldine; Montoro, Giuliana; Arellano, Jose Carlos (21 March 2011). "El avance de Humala y PPK" (PDF). opinión|data – Resumen de Encuestas a la opinión pública (in Spanish). Ipsos APOYO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  41. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL Archived 16 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine . Datum Internacional Peru. March 2011
  42. ↑ "CIA" (PDF) (in Spanish). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  43. ↑ Pelea ya es historica. Instituto de Opinión Publica. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. 25 March 2011
  44. ↑ "Ultima encuesta de CPI posiciona a Ollanta Humala en el primer lugar" (in Spanish). LaRepublica.pe. Archived from the original on 30 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  45. ↑ "Ipsos Apoyo da triple empate: Humala 22,8%, Keiko 22,3% y Toledo 21,6% | El Comercio Perú" (in Spanish). Elcomercio.pe. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  46. ↑ Dan (4 April 2011). "Peru Election Special: Toledo back from the dead?". Therealperu.co.uk. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  47. ↑ "Ahora solo son 4 candidatos en carrera| Perú21" (in Spanish). Instituto de Opinión Publica. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Archived from the original on 30 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  48. ↑ ENCUESTA DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA A NIVEL NACIONAL. Datum Internacional Peru. March 2011
  49. ↑ "Encuesta Ipsos Apoyo: Humala 27,2%, Keiko 20,5%, Toledo 18,5% y PPK 18,1% | El Comercio Perú" (in Spanish). Elcomercio.pe. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  50. ↑ Torres Guzmán, Alfredo; Loli, Guillermo; Ponce, Carlos; Sánchez, Ricardo; Agüero, Jessica; Aliaga, Geraldine; Montoro, Giuliana; Pizarro, Alejandro; Ruiz, Antonio (3 April 2011). "Humala en la segunda vuelta" (PDF) (in Spanish). Peru: Ipsos Apoyo. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  51. ↑ "Sondeo de CPI: Toledo, Keiko y PPK empatan en el segundo lugar | El Comercio Perú". El Comercio (in Spanish). Elcomercio.pe. 3 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  52. ↑ "Ollanta Humala y Alejandro Toledo van primeros" (in Spanish). LaRepublica.pe. 29 October 2000. Archived from the original on 6 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  53. ↑ "Peru run-off likely to pit Humala against Fujimori". Reuters. 7 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  54. ↑ "Private Peru Polls Show Leftist Still Leading For President". Nasdaq.com. 8 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  55. ↑ "Peru run-off to pit Humala against Fujimori-poll". Reuters. 8 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  56. ↑ "News » Peru's Electoral Jury reverses criticized poll regulations". Living in Peru. 16 February 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  57. ↑ "JNE no variará restricción a encuestas| Perú21" (in Spanish). Peru21.pe. Archived from the original on 10 April 2011. Retrieved 19 April 2011.
  58. ↑ Ollanta a la cabeza para segunda vuelta. Elcomercio.pe. 24 April 2011
  59. ↑ "Carrera a Palacio de Gobierno: Humala 40.6% y Fujimori 36.8%, según CPI" (in Spanish). Radio Programas del Perú. 28 April 2011. Archived from the original on 1 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  60. ↑ Keiko le pisa los talones a Humala Archived 1 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine Peru21. Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  61. ↑ ELECCIONES PRESIDENCIALES – 2 VUELTA ELECTORAL. Encuesta de Opinión Pública a Nivel Nacional. Datum Internacional Peru. April 2011
  62. ↑ "Encuesta de Ipsos Apoyo: Ollanta Humala 39% y Keiko Fujimori 38%" (in Spanish). El Comercio (Peru). 4 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  63. ↑ INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PRESIDENCIAL 2011. SEGUNDA VUELTA. Instituto de Opinión Publica. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. May 2011
  64. ↑ Keiko le saca ventaja a Ollanta Humala Archived 12 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine Peru21. Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  65. ↑ ELECCIONES PRESIDENCIALES −2ª VUELTA ELECTORAL. Encuesta de Opinión Pública a Nivel Nacional. Datum Internacional Peru. May 2011
  66. ↑ "ACTUALIZA 3-Fujimori mantiene ventaja carrera presidencia Perú". Reuters. 15 May 2011.
  67. ↑ "Ipsos Apoyo: Keiko Fujimori 51,1% y Ollanta Humala 48,9%" (in Spanish). El Comercio (Peru). 15 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  68. ↑ Se rompe el empate entre los candidatos Archived 19 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine Peru21. Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  69. ↑ Keiko sigue adelante en las preferencias Archived 22 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine Peru21. Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  70. ↑ "Ipsos Apoyo: Keiko Fujimori 51,4% y Ollanta Humala 48,6%" (in Spanish). El Comercio (Peru). 23 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  71. ↑ "CPI da diferencia de 7,4% entre Keiko y Ollanta" (in Spanish). El Comercio (Peru). 23 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  72. ↑ SIMULACRO DE VOTACIÓN A NIVEL NACIONAL. ELECCIONES PRESIDENCIALES −2ª VUELTA ELECTORAL A 14 días de las elecciones. Datum Internacional Peru
  73. ↑ "Última encuesta nacional urbana rural PUCP: Fujimori 50,3%, Humala 49,7%" (in Spanish). Peru: La República. 27 May 2011. Archived from the original on 31 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  74. ↑ "Ipsos Apoyo: Keiko Fujimori 50,5% y Ollanta Humala 49,5%" (in Spanish). El Comercio (Peru). 29 May 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  75. ↑ SEGUNDA VUELTA PARA LA ELECCIÓN PRESIDENCIAL 2011 Archived 22 July 2011 at the Wayback Machine . ESTUDIO DE OPINIÓN. PÚBLICA A NIVEL PERÚ URBANO Y RURAL. 25–28 May 2011
  76. ↑ Datum: Keiko 52,3% y Humala 47,7% Archived 2 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine Peru21 (27 March 2011). Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  77. 1 2 3 4 "Sigue avance de Humala en Perú, según encuestas" (in Spanish). Cuba: Prensa Latina. 4 June 2011. Retrieved 7 June 2011.
  78. ↑ Arroja encuesta que Humala ya supera a Fujimori en Perú Archived 9 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine «Diario Provincia – El Diario Grande de Michoacán. Provincia.com.mx (7 May 2010). Retrieved 28 July 2011.
  79. 1 2 "Factbox: Recent polls in Peru's presidential race". Reuters. 4 June 2011. Retrieved 6 July 2011.
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