Opinion polling for the 2017 French legislative election

Last updated

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2017 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 11 and 18 June 2017.

Contents

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the nine major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

No total for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV) was provided by the Ministry of the Interior in the 2017 legislative elections. According to statistics compiled by Laurent de Boissieu, 454 EELV candidates collected 3.41% of the vote in the first round. [1]

Opinion polling for the French legislative election, 2017.png

First round

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. EXG PCF FI ECO EELV PS PRG DVG LREM MoDem UDI LR DVD UPR DLF FN EXD REG DIV
2017 election 11 Jun 201751.30%0.77%2.72%11.03%4.30%7.44%0.47%1.60%28.21%4.12%3.03%15.77%2.76%(DIV)1.17%13.20%0.30%0.90%2.21%
Ipsos 7–8 Jun 20171,11240%1%2%11.5%3%8%31.5%22%1.5%17%2.5%
Harris Interactive 6–8 Jun 20179311%3%12%3%7%1%30%19%2%1%17%1%3%
OpinionWay 6–8 Jun 20173,08046%1%3%12%3%7%1%30%21%2%18%2%
Ifop-Fiducial 6–8 Jun 20171,00339%0.5%3%11%3.5%8%1%30%20%2%1.5%18%1.5%
Elabe 5–8 Jun 20171,91851%0.5%2%11%3%9%29%23%2%17%3.5%
BVA 2–5 Jun 20174,77241%1%2%12.5%3%8%1%30%20%1.5%2%18%1%
Ipsos 2–4 Jun 20171,12640%1%2%12.5%2.5%8.5%29.5%23%1.5%17%2.5%
Odoxa 31 May–1 Jun 201769748%1%3%11%3%8%33%19%2.5%18%1.5%
Harris Interactive 30 May–1 Jun 20178852%2%11%3%8%1%31%18%2%2%18%<0.5%2%
OpinionWay 30 May–1 Jun 20171,94045%1%3%13%2%9%1%29%20%2%18%2%
Ifop 29–31 May 20172,80238%0.5%2.5%12%3%7.5%1%31%19%1.5%2%18%2%
Ipsos 27–30 May 20178,77839%0.5%2%11.5%3%8.5%31%22%2%18%1.5%
Ipsos 26–28 May 20171,1270.5%2%11.5%3%9%29.5%22%2.5%18%2%
Kantar Sofres 24–28 May 20172,02237%1%2%12%3.5%8%1%31%18%1.5%0.5%2.5%17%2%
Harris Interactive 23–26 May 20179052%2%14%3%7%31%18%3%19%1%
OpinionWay 23–24 May 20172,1031%2%15%10%28%20%2%19%3%
Elabe 23–24 May 20171,01149%0.5%2%12%2.5%6.5%33%20%1.5%19%3%
Ifop-Fiducial 18–19 May 20179500.5%1.5%15%2.5%7%31%19%2.5%18%3%
Harris Interactive 16–18 May 20179401%2%16%3%6%32%18%3%19%
OpinionWay 16–18 May 20171,9971%2%14%11%27%20%2%20%3%
Harris Interactive 15–17 May 20174,5981%2%15%3%6%32%19%3%19%
Harris Interactive 9–11 May 20179412%2%14%3%7%29%20%3%20%
Harris Interactive 7 May 20172,3761%2%13%3%8%26%22%3%22%
Kantar Sofres 4–5 May 20171,5072%1%15%3.5%9%24%22%2.5%21%
Ifop-Fiducial 4–5 May 20171,4051%2%16%3%9%22%2.5%20%1.5%20%3%
OpinionWay 24 Apr–1 May 20175,0321%10%13%26%24%3%19%4%
2012 election 10 Jun 201242.78%0.98%6.91% (FG)0.96%5.46%29.35%1.65%3.40%1.77%27.12%7.54%(DVD)13.60%0.19%0.56%0.52%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) were constructed for 535 out of 577 constituencies, including only metropolitan France only and excluding Corsica as well as overseas territories and residents. [2]

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. PCF FI PS PRG DVG EELV LREM MoDem UDI LR DVD DLF FN EXD REG DIV
2017 election 18 Jun 201757.36%10173031213084218112618153
Odoxa 14–15 Jun 201794853%8–1725–35430–46070–951–63–7
Harris Interactive 13–15 Jun 201791414–2522–35440–47060–801–63–7
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 20172,90154%5–1520–30440–47070–901–53–10
Ipsos 7–8 Jun 20171,11211–2122–32397–42795–1155–155–10
Harris Interactive 6–8 Jun 201793115–2520–30360–390125–1408–187–9
OpinionWay 6–8 Jun 20173,08012–2215–25370–400120–1508–185–10
Ipsos 2–4 Jun 20171,12612–2225–35385–415105–1255–153–7
Odoxa 31 May–1 Jun 201769715–2525–35350–390120–1605–155–10
Harris Interactive 30 May–1 Jun 201788515–2530–44330–360135–1508–227–9
OpinionWay 30 May–1 Jun 20171,94024–3120–35335–355145–1657–175–10
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 20172,80215–2520–35350–380133–1539–168–12
Ipsos 27–30 May 20178,77810–2025–35395–42595–1155–155–10
Kantar Sofres 24–28 May 20172,02220–3040–50320–350140–15510–155–10
OpinionWay*23–24 May 20172,10325–3025–30310–330140–16010–15
OpinionWay*16–18 May 20171,99720–2540–50280–300150–17010–15
OpinionWay*24 Apr–1 May 20175,0326–828–43249–286200–21015–25
2012 election 17 Jun 201244.60%10 (FG)280122217219435(DVD)2120

By second round configuration

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Left LREM Right FN
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 20172,90141%59%
58%42%
60%40%

By first round vote

In each case, results were based on interviews in which respondents were presented with a list of candidates in their constituency.

LREM/MoDem–LR/UDI/DVD

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round vote LREM/
MoDem
LR/UDI/
DVD
No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 20172,901 FI 33%8%59%
PS 45%10%45%
FN 8%30%62%

PS/FI/DVG–LREM/MoDem

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round vote PS/FI/
DVG
LREM/
MoDem
No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 20172,901 LR/UDI 18%50%32%
FN 28%6%66%

LREM/MoDem–FN

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round vote LREM/
MoDem
FN No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 20172,901 FI 27%11%62%
PS 64%4%32%
LR/UDI 35%32%33%

By constituency

First round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon
FI
Patrick Mennucci
PSEELV
Corinne Versini
LREM
Solange Biaggi
LRUDI
Jeanne Marti
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201757.86%34.31%12.43%22.66%10.63%10.92%9.07%
Harris Interactive 17–18 May 201761635%13%26%9%12%5%
Ifop-Fiducial 17–18 May 201760238%13%24%10%12%3%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Cédric Ruffié
FI
Jean-Marc Soubeste
EELV
Olivier Falorni
DVG
Otilia Ferreira
MoDemLREM
Bruno Léal
LR
Jean-Marc de Lacoste-Lareymondie
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201748.84%10.92%3.91%36.54%26.99%9.83%7.03%4.79%
Ifop-Fiducial 2–6 Jun 201768515%3%34%25%12%8%3%

Eure's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Michaël Després
FI
Bruno Le Maire
LREM
Coumba Dioukhané
LR
Fabienne Delacour
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201752.01%11.43%44.46%6.16%22.09%15.86%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–24 May 201760316%48%7%20%9%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Danielle Floutier
FI
Béatrice Leccia
EELV
Marie Sara
MoDemLREM
Pascale Mourrut
LR
Gilbert Collard
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201750.24%13.07%2.99%32.16%14.22%32.27%5.30%
Ifop-Fiducial 30–31 May 201760014%3%31%17.5%32%2.5%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Servane Crussière
PCF
Aude Darchy
FI
Michèle Delaunay
PS
Pierre Hurmic
EELV
Catherine Fabre
LREM
Anne Walryck
LRUDI
Guillaume Boraud
DVD
Julie Rechagneux
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201748.92%1.90%13.28%10.69%8.04%39.78%15.79%1.22%3.76%5.54%
Ifop-Fiducial 5–7 Jun 20176912%17%14%5.5%35%15%1.5%5%5%

Landes's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Céline Piot
FI
Renaud Lagrave
PS
Geneviève Darrieussecq
MoDemLREM
Marie-Françoise Nadau
LRUDI
Christophe Bardin
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201745.72%12.04%13.46%43.34%11.60%11.48%8.07%
Ifop-Fiducial 1–5 Jun 201768713%12%43%10%12%10%

Pas-de-Calais's 11th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Hervé Poly
PCF
Jean-Pierre Carpentier
FI
Philippe Kemel
PS
Marine Tondelier
EELV
Anne Roquet
LREM
Alexandrine Pintus
LRUDI
Marine Le Pen
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201753.33%5.00%9.97%10.83%3.55%16.43%4.18%46.02%4.01%
Ifop-Fiducial 1–3 Jun 20176014%13.5%14.5%2.5%15.5%4%44%2%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Robert Bareille
PCF
Didier Bayens
FI
Bernard Uthurry
PS
Véronique Zenoni
EELV
Loïc Corrégé
LREM
Jean Lassalle
Résistons!
Laurent Inchauspé
UDI
Marc Oxibar
LR
Gilles Hustaix
FN
Anita Lopepe
EH Bai
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201741.47%3.35%7.67%12.63%2.69%25.41%17.71%5.42%9.66%4.28%8.51%2.68%
Ifop-Fiducial 29 May–2 Jun 20176894.5%9%16%1.5%24.5%16%3.5%11.5%5%7%1.5%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Laurent Legendre
FI
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
PS
Béatrice Vessiller
EELV
Bruno Bonnell
LREM
Emmanuelle Haziza
LRUDI
Stéphane Poncet
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201753.24%14.71%16.54%4.75%36.69%10.67%9.03%7.60%
Ifop-Fiducial 16–18 May 201760117%19%4%30%13%12%5%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Lorraine Questiaux
PCF
Anne-Françoise Prunières
FI
Marine Rosset
PS
Gilles Seignan
EELV
Gilles Le Gendre
LREM
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
LRUDI
Henri Guaino
DVD
Jean-Pierre Lecoq
DVD
Pauline Betton
PCD
Manon Bouquin
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201737.91%1.35%5.96%6.11%4.72%41.81%18.13%4.51%9.17%1.26%2.31%4.66%
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 20175521%7.5%7%3%42%24%3%7%1%3%1.5%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Michel Nouaille
PCFEELV
Farida Amrani
FI
Manuel Valls
DVG
Alban Bakary
DVD
Caroline Varin
LRUDI
Jean-Luc Raymond
DVD
David Soullard
DLF
Danielle Oger
FN
Dieudonné
SE
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201759.89%7.58%17.61%25.45%7.83%11.93%6.89%2.40%10.20%3.84%6.27%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–23 May 20176056.5%26%30%2.5%12%0.5%3%12%3%4.5%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings. [3]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Fabienne Gambiez
PRGUDEPS
Aminata Niakate
EELV
Thierry Solère
LRUDI
Marie-Laure Godin
DVD
Nina Smarandi
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 201746.66%6.37%5.01%42.60%31.38%3.21%11.43%
Ifop 2–3 Jun 20175978%4.5%44%29%4%10.5%
PollingVox 24–31 May 20175647%32%42%9%

Second round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon
FI
Patrick Mennucci
PSEELV
Corinne Versini
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 201764.22%59.85%40.15%
Harris Interactive 17–18 May 201761656%44%
Ifop-Fiducial 17–18 May 201760253%47%
61%39%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Cédric Ruffié
FI
Olivier Falorni
DVG
Otilia Ferreira
MoDemLREM
2017 election 18 Jun 201756.58%69.02%30.98%
Ifop-Fiducial 2–6 Jun 201768555%45%
20%41%39%

Eure's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Bruno Le Maire
LREM
Fabienne Delacour
FN
2017 election 18 Jun 201757.74%64.53%35.47%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–24 May 201760376%24%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Marie Sara
MoDemLREM
Pascale Mourrut
LR
Gilbert Collard
FN
2017 election 18 Jun 201751.79%49.84%50.16%
Ifop-Fiducial 30–31 May 201760056%44%
41%22%37%

Landes's 3rd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Boris Vallaud
PS
Jean-Pierre Steiner
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 201746.78%50.75%49.25%
Ifop-Fiducial 13–14 Jun 201765146%54%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Bernard Uthurry
PS
Loïc Corrégé
LREM
Jean Lassalle
Résistons!
2017 election 18 Jun 201746.63%47.21%52.79%
Ifop-Fiducial 29 May–2 Jun 201768931%35%34%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Laurent Legendre
FI
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
PS
Bruno Bonnell
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 201759.58%39.82%60.18%
Ifop-Fiducial 16–18 May 201760140%60%
38%62%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Gilles Le Gendre
LREM
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
LRUDI
2017 election 18 Jun 201748.47%54.53%45.47%
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 201755268%32%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Farida Amrani
FI
Manuel Valls
DVG
2017 election 18 Jun 201763.45%49.70%50.30%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–23 May 201760550%50%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings. [3]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Thierry Solère
LRUDI
Marie-Laure Godin
DVD
2017 election 18 Jun 201755.62%56.53%43.47%
PollingVox 24–31 May 201756443%57%

Pre-2017 polling

First round

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist, ecologist, and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.52%.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. EXG FG MRC PS PRG DVG EELV MoDem UDI UMP DVD DLF FN DIV
CSA 18–20 Nov 20149551%8%18%7%12%24%1%23%6%
2012 election 10 Jun 201242.78%0.98%6.91%(DVG)29.35%1.65%3.40%5.46%1.77%27.12%7.54%(DVD)13.60%2.23%

Second round seat projections

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. FG MRC PS PRG DVG EELV MoDem UDI UMP DVD DLF FN DIV
CSA 18–20 Nov 201495556–66485–50514–241–3
2012 election 17 Jun 201244.60%10(DVG)280122217219435(DVD)23

See also

References

  1. Laurent de Boissieu (2 January 2018). "Plaidoyer pour la rationalisation de l'offre électorale". Revue politique et parlementaire. Retrieved 26 February 2018.
  2. "Législatives 2017 : " En Marche " vers une majorité ?". OpinionWay. 3 May 2017. Retrieved 26 February 2018.
  3. 1 2 Jean-Baptiste Garat (5 June 2017). "Édouard Philippe en campagne pour Solère, un candidat LR "constructif"". Le Figaro. Retrieved 26 February 2018.