Opinion polling for the 2019 Guatemalan general election

Last updated

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 Guatemalan general election, which was held in on 16 June 2019. Because no candidate won a majority, a run-off occurred on 11 August 2019. [1]

Contents

Second round

Polling FirmDateSample size Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		NoneLead
Second round 11 August—57.9542.05—15.90
Average [2] 10 July–10 August6,02153.2346.76(N/A)6.47
CID-Gallup [3] 29 July–5 August1.21654.945.1----
Prodatos [4] 27 July–3 August1.20150.332.117.618.2
OPol Consultores [5] 24–26 July2.40044.749.16.14.4
CID-Gallup [6] 9–14 July1.20440.633.425.97.2
First round 16 June—12.122.1—10.0
CID-Gallup [7] 1–7 June1.20411.622.622.91.0
Prodatos [8] 27 May–5 June1.00454.032.014.022.0

Alternative scenarios

Polling firmDateSample sizeArzú
PAN–Podemos 		Mulet
Humanist 		Torres
UNE 		NoneLead
First round 16 June——11.225.5—14.3
First round 16 June—6.1—25.5—19.4
Prodatos [8] 13 June1,004—42.036.022.06.0
Prodatos [8] 13 June1,00446.0—33.021.013.0
CID-Gallup [7] 1–7 June1,20436.0—33.031.03.0

First round

After resolutions

Polling firmDateSample size Torres
UNE 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Mulet
PHG 		T. Cabrera
MLP 		Farchi
VIVA 		F. Cabrera
Todos 		Estrada
CREO 		OthersNoneLead
Presidential election 16 June—25.5413.956.0811.2110.375.903.133.75
Prodatos [8] 13 June1,00420.214.48.08.57.63.23.02.816.615.75.8
CID-Gallup [7] 30 May–7 June1,20422.611.69.26.45.52.82.81.315.122.711.0
CID-Gallup [9] 21 May-25 May1,20221.012.09.07.05.04.02.02.010.028.09.0
OPol Consultores [10] 20 May-23 May2,20023.3610.7713.188.633.221.720.631.2211.9925.2810.18

Before resolutions

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor 		N/AOthersLead
CID-Gallup [11] 15 May1,7478.08.02.09.021.014.024.022.07.0
On May 15, 2019, Thelma Aldana is out of the elections.
On May 13, 2019, Zury Rios is out of the elections.
TResearch15 April1,00023.7——10.817.115.7—32.76.6
TResearch14 April1,00024.1——11.016.516.0—32.47.6
TResearch13 April1,00024.4——11.516.315.7—32.18.1
TResearch12 April1,00024.1——11.514.816.2—33.47.9
TResearch11 April1,00024.5——10.814.816.1—33.88.4
TResearch10 April1,00024.6——11.714.115.8—33.88.8
TResearch9 April1,00024.9——11.814.215.7—33.49.2
TResearch8 April1,00025.2——12.114.815.6—32.39.6
TResearch7 April1,00025.1——11.714.415.4—33.49.7
TResearch6 April1,00025.3——11.814.314.7—33.910.6
TResearch5 April1,00025.0——11.614.714.3—34.610.3
TResearch4 April1,00025.1——11.615.313.8—34.29.6
TResearch3 April1,00024.6——12.014.513.5—35.410.1
TResearch2 April1,00024.2——12.215.013.4—35.29.2
TResearch1 April1,00023.8——12.515.513.3—34.98.3
Prodatos [12] 19–27 March1,2009.53.81.17.420.715.926.1244.8
March 18, 2019, the electoral campaign begins.
CID-Gallup [13] 16–25 February1,25810.72.83.15.817.77.940.911.17
Consulta Mitofsky [14] 8–11 February1,00028.1——14.46.117.68.521.210.5
CID-Gallup [15] 24 January–4 February1,8151023517746107

Favorable or unfavorable opinions

Favorable opinions

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Estrada
UCN 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky [14] 8–11 February1,000368—1122212931

Unfavorable opinions

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Estrada
UCN 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Mulet
PHG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky [14] 8–11 February1,0002756—30622532—6628

Most favorite for president

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Mulet
PHG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky [14] 8–11 February1,00035——————9—

Least favorite for president

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
CID-Gallup [7] 1–7 June1,204—3.3—1.82.234.1—
CID-Gallup [11] 8–13 May1,747102———283
CID-Gallup [13] 16–25 February1,2586.23.5—3.23.421.26.5
Consulta Mitofsky [14] 8–11 February1,00012.6———2.0404.4

References

  1. ↑ Fernanda Nunes (6 June 2019). "Explainer: Guatemala's Presidential Election". AS/COA. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  2. ↑ GEUN, GEUN (11 August 2019). "Final Polling Average". youtube.com.
  3. ↑ Gramajo, Jessica (7 August 2019). "Esto revela la encuesta electoral entre Torres y Giammattei". soy502.com (in Spanish).
  4. ↑ "Encuesta Libre: Intención de voto segunda vuelta elecciones Guatemala". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 8 August 2019.
  5. ↑ Marín, Claudia (6 August 2019). "Sandra Torres encabeza segunda ronda en elecciones de Guatemala". elmundo.cr (in Spanish).[ permanent dead link ]
  6. ↑ Gramajo, Jessica (17 July 2019). "Encuesta revela quién va a la cabeza en la Segunda Vuelta". soy502.com (in Spanish).
  7. 1 2 3 4 Segunda Encuesta Electoral (junio de 2019)
  8. 1 2 3 4 Segunda Encuesta Libre (junio de 2019)
  9. ↑ "Opinión Pública Guatemala" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 30 May 2019.
  10. ↑ Torres, Arzú, Giammattei y Mulet lideran intención de votos, según estudio.
  11. 1 2 Estos son los resultados de la reciente encuesta de Cid Gallup
  12. ↑ Cuatro candidatos acaparan mayor intención de voto
  13. 1 2 Nueva encuesta electoral de Cid-Gallup hasta finales de febrero
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 "ASÍ VAN... ESTUDIO ELECTORAL GUATEMALA (FEB/2019)". Consulta Mitofsky (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 12 April 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
  15. ↑ "Carrera por la presidencia de Guatemala inicia". CID-Gallup (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 15 February 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
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