Peso problem (finance)

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The peso problem in finance is a problem which arises when "the possibility that some infrequent or unprecedented event may occur affects asset prices". The difficulty or impossibility of predicting such an event creates problems in modeling the economy and financial markets by using the past. [1]

Contents

It is useful in various contexts, in particular, in analyzing the forward premium anomaly. [1]

History

The precise origin of the term is unknown, but it is generally attributed to Milton Friedman. Mexico in the 1970s, had pegged the Mexican peso to the US dollar, a peg which had held for more than 20 years. Friedman noted the large gap between the interest rate on Mexican bank deposits and the interest rate on comparable US bank deposits. Friedman reasoned that interest differential reflected concern in the market that the peso would be devalued. This was eventually realized in 1976 when the peso, allowed to float, fell 46 percent. [1]

Since the currency value had been pegged for a long time, the differential in interest rate looked like an anomaly or flaw in financial markets – an investor could exploit the difference by simple currency conversion and make a profit from the arbitrage opportunity. The anomaly could be explained once the possibility of a large drop in the value of the peso is admitted.

The empirical work first discussing this was by Kenneth Rogoff in 1977 which was part of his Ph.D. dissertation.[ citation needed ] The first treatment in academic literature was by Krasker in 1980. [2] [3]

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Interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage. Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets. Given foreign exchange market equilibrium, the interest rate parity condition implies that the expected return on domestic assets will equal the exchange rate-adjusted expected return on foreign currency assets. Investors then cannot earn arbitrage profits by borrowing in a country with a lower interest rate, exchanging for foreign currency, and investing in a foreign country with a higher interest rate, due to gains or losses from exchanging back to their domestic currency at maturity. Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: uncovered interest rate parity refers to the parity condition in which exposure to foreign exchange risk is uninhibited, whereas covered interest rate parity refers to the condition in which a forward contract has been used to cover exchange rate risk. Each form of the parity condition demonstrates a unique relationship with implications for the forecasting of future exchange rates: the forward exchange rate and the future spot exchange rate.

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The forward exchange rate is the exchange rate at which a bank agrees to exchange one currency for another at a future date when it enters into a forward contract with an investor. Multinational corporations, banks, and other financial institutions enter into forward contracts to take advantage of the forward rate for hedging purposes. The forward exchange rate is determined by a parity relationship among the spot exchange rate and differences in interest rates between two countries, which reflects an economic equilibrium in the foreign exchange market under which arbitrage opportunities are eliminated. When in equilibrium, and when interest rates vary across two countries, the parity condition implies that the forward rate includes a premium or discount reflecting the interest rate differential. Forward exchange rates have important theoretical implications for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Financial economists have put forth a hypothesis that the forward rate accurately predicts the future spot rate, for which empirical evidence is mixed.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:

The forward premium anomaly in currency markets refers to the well documented empirical finding that the domestic currency appreciates when domestic nominal interest rates exceed foreign interest rates. This is perceived as puzzling in the context of the hypothesis that the expected future change in the exchange rate between two countries is equal to the interest-rate differential between these two countries; this hypothesis suggests that if all currencies are equally risky, investors would demand higher interest rates on currencies expected to fall in value. See: Forward exchange rate# Unbiasedness hypothesis. Thus, appreciation of the domestic currency when domestic interest rates are greater than foreign interest rates is called an anomaly.

Domestic liability dollarization (DLD) refers to the denomination of banking system deposits and lending in a currency other than that of the country in which they are held. DLD does not refer exclusively to denomination in US dollars, as DLD encompasses accounts denominated in internationally traded "hard" currencies such as the British pound sterling, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and the Euro.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Sill, Keith. "Understanding Asset Values: Stock Prices, Exchange Rates, And the "Peso Problem"" (PDF). Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Retrieved 13 October 2015.
  2. Krasker, WS (1980). "The 'peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets". Journal of Monetary Economics. 6 (2): 269–276. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(80)90031-8 . Retrieved 13 October 2015.
  3. Evans, Martin D. D. (1996-01-01), "21 Peso problems: Their theoretical and empirical implications", Handbook of Statistics, Statistical Methods in Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14, pp. 613–646, retrieved 2022-12-12

See also