Kenneth Rogoff

Last updated
Evelyn Brody
(m. 19791989)
Natasha Lance
(m. 1995)
[1]
Ken Rogoff
Kenneth Rogoff.jpg
Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund
In office
August 2001 September 2003
Education Yale University (BA, MA)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (PhD)
Website University website
Academic career
Institution Harvard University
Field Financial economics
Doctoral
advisor
Rudi Dornbusch [2]
Doctoral
students
Gita Gopinath [3]
Information at IDEAS / RePEc
Chess career
Country United States
Title Grandmaster (1978)
Peak rating 2520 (January 1977)

Kenneth Saul Rogoff (born March 22, 1953) is an American economist and chess Grandmaster.

Contents

He is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. During the Great Recession, Rogoff was an influential proponent of austerity. [4] [5]

Early life

Rogoff grew up in Rochester, New York. His father was a professor of radiology at the University of Rochester.

Rogoff received a BA and MA from Yale University summa cum laude in 1975, [6] and a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1980. [6]

Chess

At sixteen Rogoff dropped out of high school to concentrate on chess. At that time he met Bobby Fischer, who was impressed by Rogoff's "self-assured style and his knowing exactly what he wanted over the chessboard". [7] He won the United States Junior Championship in 1969 and spent the next several years living primarily in Europe and playing in tournaments there. However, at eighteen he made the decision to go to college and pursue a career in economics rather than to become a professional player, although he continued to play and improve for several years afterward. Rogoff was awarded the IM title in 1974, and the GM title in 1978. He was 3rd in the World Junior Championship of 1971 and finished 2nd in the US Championship of 1975, which doubled as a Zonal competition, a half point behind Walter Browne; this result qualified him for the 1976 Interzonal at Biel where he finished 13–15th. In other tournaments, he drew for first at Norristown in 1973 and at Orense in 1976. [8] He has also drawn individual games against former world champions Mikhail Tal [9] and Tigran V. Petrosian. [10] In 2012 he drew a blitz game with the world's highest rated player Magnus Carlsen. [11]

Career

Early in his career, Rogoff served as an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Rogoff was the Charles and Marie Robertson Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University. [12]

In 2002, Rogoff was in the spotlight because of a dispute with Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist of the World Bank and 2001 Nobel Prize winner. After Stiglitz criticized the IMF in his book, Globalization and Its Discontents, Rogoff replied in an open letter. [13] He is also a regular contributor to Project Syndicate since 2002.

2008 near-meltdown

Fellow economist Alan Blinder credits both Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart with describing highly relevant aspects of the 2008 financial institution near-meltdown and resulting serious recession. [14]

In a normal recession such as 1991 or 2000, the Keynesian tools of tax cuts and infrastructure spending (fiscal stimulus), as well as lowered interest rates (monetary stimulus), will usually right the economic ship in a matter of months and lead to recovery and economic expansion. Even the serious recession of 1982, which Blinder states "was called the Great Recession in its day," fits comfortably within this category of a normal recession which will respond to the standard tools. [14]

By contrast, the 2008 near-meltdown destroyed parts of the financial system and left other parts reeling and in serious need of de-leveraging. Large amounts of governmental debt, household debt, corporate debt, and financial institution debt were left in its wake. And because of this debt, the normal tools of tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending were somewhat less available and/or politically difficult to achieve. (Fiscal policy at times even ended up becoming pro-cyclical, which it was in some European countries under austerity policies.) In the United States, economist Paul Krugman argued that even the combination of the Oct. 2008 bailout plus the Feb. 2009 bailout was not big enough, although Blinder states that they were large compared to previous bailouts. And, since interest rates were already near zero, the standard monetary tool of lowering rates was not going to provide much help. [14]

Recovery from what Blinder terms a Reinhart-Rogoff recession may require debt forgiveness, either directly, or implicitly through encouraging somewhat higher than normal rates of inflation. "Not your father’s recovery policies," writes Blinder. [14]

During the 2010 United Kingdom general election, Rogoff contributed to an open letter to The Sunday Times endorsing the Conservative Party and Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne's demands for greater austerity during the European debt crisis. [4]

Criticism and controversy

In April 2013, Rogoff was at the center of worldwide attention with Carmen Reinhart (coauthor of the book This Time is Different) when their widely cited study "Growth in a Time of Debt" was shown to contain computation errors which critics claim undermine its central thesis that too much debt causes low growth. [5] [15] An analysis by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin argued that "coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics led to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period." [16] [17] Their calculations demonstrated that some high debt countries grew at 2.2 percent, rather than the −0.1 percent figure initially cited by Reinhart and Rogoff. [16] Rogoff and Reinhart claimed that their fundamental conclusions were accurate after correcting the coding errors detected by their critics. [18] [19] They disavowed their claim that a 90% government debt-to-GDP ratio is a specific tipping point for growth outcomes. [20] The subject remains controversial, because of the political ramifications of the research, though in Rogoff and Reinhart's words "[t]he politically charged discussion ... has falsely equated our finding of a negative association between debt and growth with an unambiguous call for austerity." [20]

Memberships

Publications

His book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, which he co-authored with Carmen Reinhart, was released in October 2009. [21]

In The Curse of Cash, published in 2016, he urged that the United States phase out the 100-dollar bill, then the 50-dollar bill, then the 20-dollar bill, leaving only smaller denominations in circulation. [22]

See also

Related Research Articles

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution funded by 190 member countries, with headquarters in Washington, D.C. It is regarded as the global lender of last resort to national governments, and a leading supporter of exchange-rate stability. Its stated mission is "working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world." Established on December 27, 1945 at the Bretton Woods Conference, primarily according to the ideas of Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, it started with 29 member countries and the goal of reconstructing the international monetary system after World War II. It now plays a central role in the management of balance of payments difficulties and international financial crises. Through a quota system, countries contribute funds to a pool from which countries can borrow if they experience balance of payments problems. As of 2016, the fund had SDR 477 billion.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Joseph Stiglitz</span> American economist (born 1943)

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Austerity</span> Economic policies intended to reduce government budget deficits

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<i>Globalization and Its Discontents</i> 2002 non-fiction book by Joseph E. Stiglitz

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Household debt</span> Combined debt of all people in a household

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<i>American Economic Review</i> Academic journal

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Debt-to-GDP ratio</span> Economic assessment of a countrys debt

In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio between a country's government debt and its gross domestic product (GDP). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that an economy produces goods and services sufficient to pay back debts without incurring further debt. Geopolitical and economic considerations – including interest rates, war, recessions, and other variables – influence the borrowing practices of a nation and the choice to incur further debt.

A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults. Financial crises directly result in a loss of paper wealth but do not necessarily result in significant changes in the real economy.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thomas Herndon</span>

Thomas Herndon is an assistant professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, who became known for critiquing "Growth in a Time of Debt", a widely cited academic paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff supporting the austerity policies implemented by governments in Europe and North America in the early 21st century. His research concluded that these measures may not have been necessary.

At the micro-economic level, deleveraging refers to the reduction of the leverage ratio, or the percentage of debt in the balance sheet of a single economic entity, such as a household or a firm. It is the opposite of leveraging, which is the practice of borrowing money to acquire assets and multiply gains and losses.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Great Recession</span> Global economic decline from 2007 to 2009

The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline observed in national economies globally, i.e. a recession, that occurred in the late 2000s. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carmen Reinhart</span> American economist

Carmen M. Reinhart is a Cuban-American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. She is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Founding Contributor of VoxEU, and a member of Council on Foreign Relations. She is also a member of American Economic Association, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, and the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. She became the subject of general news coverage when mathematical errors were found in a research paper she co-authored.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">European debt crisis</span> Multi-year debt crisis in multiple EU countries since late 2009

The European debt crisis, often also referred to as the eurozone crisis or the European sovereign debt crisis, was a multi-year debt crisis that took place in the European Union (EU) from 2009 until the mid to late 2010s. Several eurozone member states were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or to bail out over-indebted banks under their national supervision without the assistance of third parties like other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greek government-debt crisis</span> Sovereign debt crisis faced by Greece (2009–2018)

Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Widely known in the country as The Crisis, it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis. In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country.

In the United States, the Great Recession was a severe financial crisis combined with a deep recession. While the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, it took many years for the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels of employment and output. This slow recovery was due in part to households and financial institutions paying off debts accumulated in the years preceding the crisis along with restrained government spending following initial stimulus efforts. It followed the bursting of the housing bubble, the housing market correction and subprime mortgage crisis.

The 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis was part of the wider downturn of the Portuguese economy that started in 2001 and possibly ended between 2016 and 2017. The period from 2010 to 2014 was probably the hardest and more challenging part of the entire economic crisis; this period includes the 2011–14 international bailout to Portugal and was marked by intense austerity policies, more intense than the wider 2001-2017 crisis. Economic growth stalled in Portugal between 2001 and 2002, and following years of internal economic crisis, the worldwide Great Recession started to hit Portugal in 2008 and eventually led to the country being unable to repay or refinance its government debt without the assistance of third parties. To prevent an insolvency situation in the debt crisis, Portugal applied in April 2011 for bail-out programs and drew a cumulated €78 billion from the IMF, the EFSM, and the EFSF. Portugal exited the bailout in May 2014, the same year that positive economic growth re-appeared following three years of recession. The government achieved a 2.1% budget deficit in 2016 and in 2017 the economy grew 2.7%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Proposed long-term solutions for the eurozone crisis</span>

The proposed long-term solutions for the Eurozone crisis address ways to deal with the European debt crisis that took place in the European Union from 2009 till the late 2010s, including risks to Eurozone country governments and the Euro.

Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the evidence for the 90%-debt threshold hypothesis provided support for pro-austerity policies.

References

  1. "WEDDINGS; Natasha S. Lance, Kenneth S. Rogoff". The New York Times. 1995-06-25.
  2. "Essays on expectations and exchange rate volatility" (PDF).
  3. "Gita Gopinath's Curriculum Vitae" (PDF).
  4. 1 2 Tooze, Adam (2018). Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World. New York, New York: Viking Press. p. 349. ISBN   978-0-670-02493-3. OCLC   1039188461.
  5. 1 2 Alexander, Ruth (April 19, 2013). "Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs". BBC News . Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  6. 1 2 "Kenneth Rogoff -- Biographical Information". International Monetary Fund . 28 October 2005. Retrieved 28 December 2020.
  7. Soltis, Andrew (2012). What it takes to become a chess master. London: Batsford. p. 13. ISBN   9781849940269.
  8. "Kenneth Rogoff". Chessgames.com. Archived from the original on April 7, 2013. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  9. "Mikhail Tal vs Kenneth Rogoff". Chessgames.com. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  10. "Tigran Vartanovich Petrosian vs Kenneth Rogoff". Chessgames.com. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  11. Kavalek, Lubomir (September 5, 2012). "Magnus Carlsen Storms New York's Chess Scene". The Huffington Post . Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  12. "Kenneth Rogoff". Institute for New Economic Thinking. Archived from the original on June 27, 2013. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  13. Rogoff, Kenneth (July 2, 2002). "An Open Letter". IMF . Retrieved May 4, 2013.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Blinder, Alan S. (2015-04-03). "What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis, the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?" (PDF). The Journal of Economic Education. Princeton University Griswold Center for Economic Policy. 46 (2): 135–149. doi:10.1080/00220485.2015.1015190. ISSN   0022-0485. S2CID   144314357.
  15. "How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff's Arithmetic Mistake?". Center for Economic and Policy Research. April 16, 2013. Archived from the original on April 19, 2013. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  16. 1 2 Herndon, Thomas; Ash, Michael; Pollin, Robert (April 15, 2013). "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff" (PDF). Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2013. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  17. "Austerity's Spreadsheet Error - The Colbert Report (Video Clip)". Comedy Central. 24 April 2013. Retrieved 2019-05-18.
  18. "Reinhart "Reinhart-Rogoff Initial Response" . Financial Times blog. April 16, 2013. Retrieved 2020-07-20.
  19. Inman, Phillip (April 17, 2013). "Rogoff and Reinhart defend their numbers". The Guardian . Retrieved April 18, 2013.
  20. 1 2 Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S. (April 25, 2013). "Opinion | Debt, Growth and the Austerity Debate". The New York Times . ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2020-07-20.. Op-ed by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff.
  21. Rampell, Catherine (July 4, 2010), "They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)", The New York Times
  22. Coy, Peter (September 7, 2016). "This Harvard Economist Is Trying to Kill Cash". bloomberg.com. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 2016-09-07.

Commons-logo.svg Media related to Kenneth Rogoff at Wikimedia Commons

Diplomatic posts
Preceded by Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund
2001–2003
Succeeded by