Austerity

Last updated

In economic policy, austerity is a set of political-economic policies that aim to reduce government budget deficits through spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination of both. [1] [2] [3] There are three primary types of austerity measures: higher taxes to fund spending, raising taxes while cutting spending, and lower taxes and lower government spending. [4] Austerity measures are often used by governments that find it difficult to borrow or meet their existing obligations to pay back loans. The measures are meant to reduce the budget deficit by bringing government revenues closer to expenditures. Proponents of these measures state that this reduces the amount of borrowing required and may also demonstrate a government's fiscal discipline to creditors and credit rating agencies and make borrowing easier and cheaper as a result.

Contents

In most macroeconomic models, austerity policies which reduce government spending lead to increased unemployment in the short term. [5] [6] These reductions in employment usually occur directly in the public sector and indirectly in the private sector. Where austerity policies are enacted using tax increases, these can reduce consumption by cutting household disposable income. Reduced government spending can reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the short term as government expenditure is itself a component of GDP. In the longer term, reduced government spending can reduce GDP growth if, for example, cuts to education spending leave a country's workforce less able to do high-skilled jobs or if cuts to infrastructure investment impose greater costs on business than they saved through lower taxes. In both cases, if reduced government spending leads to reduced GDP growth, austerity may lead to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than the alternative of the government running a higher budget deficit. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, austerity measures in many European countries were followed by rising unemployment and slower GDP growth. The result was increased debt-to-GDP ratios despite reductions in budget deficits. [7]

Theoretically in some cases, particularly when the output gap is low, austerity can have the opposite effect and stimulate economic growth. For example, when an economy is operating at or near capacity, higher short-term deficit spending (stimulus) can cause interest rates to rise, resulting in a reduction in private investment, which in turn reduces economic growth. Where there is excess capacity, the stimulus can result in an increase in employment and output. [8] [9] Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi argue that austerity can be expansionary in situations where government reduction in spending is offset by greater increases in aggregate demand (private consumption, private investment, and exports). [10]

History

The origin of modern austerity measures is mostly undocumented among academics. [11] During the United States occupation of Haiti that began in 1915, the United States utilized austerity policies where American corporations received a low tax rate while Haitians saw their taxes increase, with a forced labor system creating a "corporate paradise" in occupied Haiti. [12] Another historical example of contemporary austerity is Fascist Italy during a liberal period of the economy from 1922 to 1925. [11] The fascist government utilized austerity policies to prevent the democratization of Italy following World War I, with Luigi Einaudi, Maffeo Pantaleoni, Umberto Ricci and Alberto de' Stefani leading this movement. [11] Austerity measures used by the Weimar Republic of Germany were unpopular and contributed towards the increased support for the Nazi Party in the 1930s. [13]

Justifications

Austerity measures are typically pursued if there is a threat that a government cannot honour its debt obligations. This may occur when a government has borrowed in currencies that it has no right to issue, for example a South American country that borrows in US Dollars. It may also occur if a country uses the currency of an independent central bank that is legally restricted from buying government debt, for example in the Eurozone.

In such a situation, banks and investors may lose confidence in a government's ability or willingness to pay, and either refuse to roll over existing debts, or demand extremely high interest rates. International financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may demand austerity measures as part of Structural Adjustment Programmes when acting as lender of last resort.

Austerity policies may also appeal to the wealthier class of creditors, who prefer low inflation and the higher probability of payback on their government securities by less profligate governments. [14] More recently austerity has been pursued after governments became highly indebted by assuming private debts following banking crises. (This occurred after Ireland assumed the debts of its private banking sector during the European debt crisis. This rescue of the private sector resulted in calls to cut back the profligacy of the public sector.) [15]

According to Mark Blyth, the concept of austerity emerged in the 20th century, when large states acquired sizable budgets. However, Blyth argues that the theories and sensibilities about the role of the state and capitalist markets that underline austerity emerged from the 17th century onwards. Austerity is grounded in liberal economics' view of the state and sovereign debt as deeply problematic. Blyth traces the discourse of austerity back to John Locke's theory of private property and derivative theory of the state, David Hume's ideas about money and the virtue of merchants, and Adam Smith's theories on economic growth and taxes. On the basis of classic liberal ideas, austerity emerged as a doctrine of neoliberalism in the 20th century. [16]

Economist David M. Kotz suggests that the implementation of austerity measures following the 2007–2008 financial crisis was an attempt to preserve the neoliberal capitalist model. [17]

Theoretical considerations

Red: corporate profits after tax and inventory valuation adjustment. Blue: nonresidential fixed investment, both as fractions of U.S. GDP, 1989-2012. US corporate profits and business investment.png
Red: corporate profits after tax and inventory valuation adjustment. Blue: nonresidential fixed investment, both as fractions of U.S. GDP, 1989–2012.

In the 1930s during the Great Depression, anti-austerity arguments gained more prominence. John Maynard Keynes became a well known anti-austerity economist, [16] arguing that "The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury."

Contemporary Keynesian economists argue that budget deficits are appropriate when an economy is in recession, to reduce unemployment and help spur GDP growth. [18] According to Paul Krugman, since a government is not like a household, reductions in government spending during economic downturns worsen the crisis. [19]

Across an economy, one person's spending is another person's income. In other words, if everyone is trying to reduce their spending, the economy can be trapped in what economists call the paradox of thrift, worsening the recession as GDP falls. In the past this has been offset by encouraging consumerism to rely on debt, but after the 2008 crisis, this is looking like a less and less viable option for sustainable economics.

Krugman argues that, if the private sector is unable or unwilling to consume at a level that increases GDP and employment sufficiently, then the government should be spending more in order to offset the decline in private spending. [19] Keynesian theory is proposed as being responsible for post-war boom years, before the 1970s, and when public sector investment was at its highest across Europe, partially encouraged by the Marshall Plan.

An important component of economic output is business investment, but there is no reason to expect it to stabilize at full utilization of the economy's resources. [20] High business profits do not necessarily lead to increased economic growth. (When businesses and banks have a disincentive to spend accumulated capital, such as cash repatriation taxes from profits in overseas tax havens and interest on excess reserves paid to banks, increased profits can lead to decreasing growth.) [21] [22]

Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote in April 2013, "Austerity seldom works without structural reforms – for example, changes in taxes, regulations and labor market policies – and if poorly designed, can disproportionately hit the poor and middle class. Our consistent advice has been to avoid withdrawing fiscal stimulus too quickly, a position identical to that of most mainstream economists."

To help improve the U.S. economy, they (Rogoff and Reinhart) advocated reductions in mortgage principal for 'underwater homes'—those whose negative equity (where the value of the asset is less than the mortgage principal) can lead to a stagnant housing market with no realistic opportunity to reduce private debts. [23]

Multiplier effects

In October 2012, the IMF announced that its forecasts for countries that implemented austerity programs have been consistently overoptimistic, suggesting that tax hikes and spending cuts have been doing more damage than expected and that countries that implemented fiscal stimulus, such as Germany and Austria, did better than expected. [24]

The IMF reported that this was due to fiscal multipliers that were considerably larger than expected: for example, the IMF estimated that fiscal multipliers based on data from 28 countries ranged between 0.9 and 1.7. In other words, a 1% GDP fiscal consolidation (i.e., austerity) would reduce GDP between 0.9% and 1.7%, thus inflicting far more economic damage than the 0.5 previously estimated in IMF forecasts. [25]

In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research.

For these countries, Nicoletta Batini, Luc Eyraud and Anke Weber propose a simple method—dubbed the "bucket approach"—to come up with reasonable multiplier estimates. The approach bunches countries into groups (or "buckets") with similar multiplier values, based on their characteristics, and taking into account the effect of (some) temporary factors such as the state of the business cycle.

Different tax and spending choices of equal magnitude have different economic effects: [26] [27] [28]

For example, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that the payroll tax (levied on all wage earners) has a higher multiplier (impact on GDP) than does the income tax (which is levied primarily on wealthier workers). [29] In other words, raising the payroll tax by $1 as part of an austerity strategy would slow the economy more than would raising the income tax by $1, resulting in less net deficit reduction.

In theory, it would stimulate the economy and reduce the deficit if the payroll tax were lowered and the income tax raised in equal amounts. [30]

Crowding in or out

The term "crowding out" refers to the extent to which an increase in the budget deficit offsets spending in the private sector. Economist Laura Tyson wrote in June 2012, "By itself an increase in the deficit, either in the form of an increase in government spending or a reduction in taxes, causes an increase in demand". How this affects output, employment, and growth depends on what happens to interest rates:

When the economy is operating near capacity, government borrowing to finance an increase in the deficit causes interest rates to rise and higher interest rates reduce or "crowd out" private investment, reducing growth. This theory explains why large and sustained government deficits take a toll on growth: they reduce capital formation. But this argument rests on how government deficits affect interest rates, and the relationship between government deficits and interest rates varies.

When there is considerable excess capacity, an increase in government borrowing to finance an increase in the deficit does not lead to higher interest rates and does not crowd out private investment. Instead, the higher demand resulting from the increase in the deficit bolsters employment and output directly. The resultant increase in income and economic activity in turn encourages, or "crowds in", additional private spending.

Some argue that the "crowding-in" model is an appropriate solution for current economic conditions. [9]

Government budget balance as a sectoral component

Sectoral balances in U.S. economy 1990-2012. By definition, the three balances must net to zero. Since 2009, the U.S. capital surplus and private-sector surplus have driven a government budget deficit. Sectoral Financial Balances in U.S. Economy.png
Sectoral balances in U.S. economy 1990–2012. By definition, the three balances must net to zero. Since 2009, the U.S. capital surplus and private-sector surplus have driven a government budget deficit.

According to economist Martin Wolf, the U.S. and many Eurozone countries experienced rapid increases in their budget deficits in the wake of the 2008 crisis as a result of significant private-sector retrenchment and ongoing capital account surpluses.

Policy choices had little to do with these deficit increases. This makes austerity measures counterproductive. Wolf explained that government fiscal balance is one of three major financial sectoral balances in a country's economy, along with the foreign financial sector (capital account) and the private financial sector.

By definition, the sum of the surpluses or deficits across these three sectors must be zero. In the U.S. and many Eurozone countries other than Germany, a foreign financial surplus exists because capital is imported (net) to fund the trade deficit. Further, there is a private-sector financial surplus because household savings exceed business investment.

By definition, a government budget deficit must exist so all three net to zero: for example, the U.S. government budget deficit in 2011 was approximately 10% of GDP (8.6% of GDP of which was federal), offsetting a foreign financial surplus of 4% of GDP and a private-sector surplus of 6% of GDP. [31]

Wolf explained in July 2012 that the sudden shift in the private sector from deficit to surplus forced the U.S. government balance into deficit: "The financial balance of the private sector shifted towards surplus by the almost unbelievable cumulative total of 11.2 per cent of gross domestic product between the third quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2009, which was when the financial deficit of US government (federal and state) reached its peak.... No fiscal policy changes explain the collapse into massive fiscal deficit between 2007 and 2009, because there was none of any importance. The collapse is explained by the massive shift of the private sector from financial deficit into surplus or, in other words, from boom to bust." [31]

Wolf also wrote that several European economies face the same scenario and that a lack of deficit spending would likely have resulted in a depression. He argued that a private-sector depression (represented by the private- and foreign-sector surpluses) was being "contained" by government deficit spending. [32]

Economist Paul Krugman also explained in December 2011 the causes of the sizable shift from private-sector deficit to surplus in the U.S.: "This huge move into surplus reflects the end of the housing bubble, a sharp rise in household saving, and a slump in business investment due to lack of customers." [33]

One reason why austerity can be counterproductive in a downturn is due to a significant private-sector financial surplus, in which consumer savings is not fully invested by businesses. In a healthy economy, private-sector savings placed into the banking system by consumers are borrowed and invested by companies. However, if consumers have increased their savings but companies are not investing the money, a surplus develops.

Business investment is one of the major components of GDP. For example, a U.S. private-sector financial deficit from 2004 to 2008 transitioned to a large surplus of savings over investment that exceeded $1 trillion by early 2009, and remained above $800 billion into September 2012. Part of this investment reduction was related to the housing market, a major component of investment. This surplus explains how even significant government deficit spending would not increase interest rates (because businesses still have access to ample savings if they choose to borrow and invest it, so interest rates are not bid upward) and how Federal Reserve action to increase the money supply does not result in inflation (because the economy is awash with savings with no place to go). [33]

Economist Richard Koo described similar effects for several of the developed world economies in December 2011: "Today private sectors in the U.S., the U.K., Spain, and Ireland (but not Greece) are undergoing massive deleveraging [paying down debt rather than spending] in spite of record low interest rates. This means these countries are all in serious balance sheet recessions. The private sectors in Japan and Germany are not borrowing, either. With borrowers disappearing and banks reluctant to lend, it is no wonder that, after nearly three years of record low interest rates and massive liquidity injections, industrial economies are still doing so poorly. Flow of funds data for the U.S. show a massive shift away from borrowing to savings by the private sector since the housing bubble burst in 2007. The shift for the private sector as a whole represents over 9 percent of U.S. GDP at a time of zero interest rates. Moreover, this increase in private sector savings exceeds the increase in government borrowings (5.8 percent of GDP), which suggests that the government is not doing enough to offset private sector deleveraging." [34]

Framing of the debate surrounding austerity

Many scholars have argued that how the debate surrounding austerity is framed has a heavy impact on the view of austerity in the public eye, and how the public understands macroeconomics as a whole. Wren-Lewis, for example, coined the term 'mediamacro', which refers to "the role of the media reproducing particularly corrosive forms of economic illiteracy—of which the idea that deficits are ipso facto 'bad' is a strong example." [35] This can go as far as ignoring economists altogether; however, it often manifests itself as a drive in which a minority of economists whose ideas about austerity have been thoroughly debunked being pushed to the front to justify public policy, such as in the case of Alberto Alesina (2009), whose pro-austerity works were "thoroughly debunked by the likes of the economists, the IMF, and the Centre for Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP)." [36] Other anti-austerity economists, such as Seymour [37] have argued that the debate must be reframed as a social and class movement, and its impact judged accordingly, since statecraft is viewed as the main goal.

Further, critics such as Major have highlighted how the OECD and associated international finance organisations have framed the debate to promote austerity, for example, the concept of 'wage-push inflation' which ignores the role played by the profiteering of private companies, and seeks to blame inflation on wages being too high. [38]

Empirical considerations

According to a 2020 study, austerity increases the risk of default in situations of severe fiscal stress, but reduces the risk of default in situations of low fiscal stress. [39]

Europe

Public Debt to GDP Ratio for Selected European Countries - 2008 to 2012. Source Data: Eurostat Eurozone Countries Public Debt to GDP Ratio 2010 vs. 2011.png
Public Debt to GDP Ratio for Selected European Countries – 2008 to 2012. Source Data: Eurostat

A typical goal of austerity is to reduce the annual budget deficit without sacrificing growth. Over time, this may reduce the overall debt burden, often measured as the ratio of public debt to GDP. [40]

Relationship between fiscal tightening (austerity) in Eurozone countries with their GDP growth rate, 2008-12 Eurozone-structural1.jpg
Relationship between fiscal tightening (austerity) in Eurozone countries with their GDP growth rate, 2008–12

Eurozone

During the European debt crisis, many countries embarked on austerity programs, reducing their budget deficits relative to GDP from 2010 to 2011.

According to the CIA World Factbook , Greece decreased its budget deficit from 10.4% of GDP in 2010 to 9.6% in 2011. Iceland, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, France, and Spain also decreased their budget deficits from 2010 to 2011 relative to GDP [42] [43] but the austerity policy of the Eurozone achieves not only the reduction of budget deficits. The goal of economic consolidation influences the future development of the European social model.

With the exception of Germany, each of these countries had public-debt-to-GDP ratios that increased from 2010 to 2011, as indicated in the chart at right. Greece's public-debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 143% in 2010 to 165% in 2011 [43] Indicating despite declining budget deficits GDP growth was not sufficient to support a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio for these countries during this period.

Eurostat reported that the overall debt-to-GDP ratio for the EA17 was 70.1% in 2008, 80.0% in 2009, 85.4% in 2010, 87.3% in 2011, and 90.6% in 2012. [42] [44] [45] Further, real GDP in the EA17 declined for six straight quarters from Q4 2011 to Q1 2013. [46]

Unemployment is another variable considered in evaluating austerity measures. According to the CIA World Factbook, from 2010 to 2011, the unemployment rates in Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and the UK increased. France and Italy had no significant changes, while in Germany and Iceland the unemployment rate declined. [43] Eurostat reported that Eurozone unemployment reached record levels in March 2013 at 12.1%, [47] up from 11.6% in September 2012 and 10.3% in 2011. Unemployment varied significantly by country. [48]

Economist Martin Wolf analyzed the relationship between cumulative GDP growth in 2008 to 2012 and total reduction in budget deficits due to austerity policies in several European countries during April 2012 (see chart at right). He concluded, "In all, there is no evidence here that large fiscal contractions budget deficit reductions bring benefits to confidence and growth that offset the direct effects of the contractions. They bring exactly what one would expect: small contractions bring recessions and big contractions bring depressions."

Changes in budget balances (deficits or surpluses) explained approximately 53% of the change in GDP, according to the equation derived from the IMF data used in his analysis. [49]

Similarly, economist Paul Krugman analyzed the relationship between GDP and reduction in budget deficits for several European countries in April 2012 and concluded that austerity was slowing growth. He wrote: "this also implies that 1 euro of austerity yields only about 0.4 euros of reduced deficit, even in the short run. No wonder, then, that the whole austerity enterprise is spiraling into disaster." [50]

Greece

The Greek government-debt crisis brought a package of austerity measures, put forth by the EU and the IMF mostly in the context of the three successive bailouts the country endured from 2010 to 2018; it was met with great anger by the Greek public, leading to riots and social unrest. [51] On 27 June 2011, trade union organizations began a 48-hour labour strike in advance of a parliamentary vote on the austerity package, the first such strike since 1974. [52]

Massive demonstrations were organized throughout Greece, intended to pressure members of parliament into voting against the package. [53] The second set of austerity measures was approved on 29 June 2011, with 155 out of 300 members of parliament voting in favor. [54] However, one United Nations official warned that the second package of austerity measures in Greece could pose a violation of human rights. [55]

Around 2011, the IMF started issuing guidance suggesting that austerity could be harmful when applied without regard to an economy's underlying fundamentals. [56]

In 2013, it published a detailed analysis concluding that "if financial markets focus on the short-term behavior of the debt ratio, or if country authorities engage in repeated rounds of tightening in an effort to get the debt ratio to converge to the official target", austerity policies could slow or reverse economic growth and inhibit full employment. [57] Keynesian economists and commentators such as Paul Krugman have suggested that this has in fact been occurring, with austerity yielding worse results in proportion to the extent to which it has been imposed. [58] [59]

Overall, Greece lost 25% of its GDP during the crisis. Although the government debt increased only 6% between 2009 and 2017 (from €300 bn to €318 bn) — thanks, in part, to the 2012 debt restructuring —, [60] [61] the critical debt-to-GDP ratio shot up from 127% to 179% [60] mostly due to the severe GDP drop during the handling of the crisis. In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced capitalist economy to date, overtaking the US Great Depression. As such, the crisis adversely affected the populace as the series of sudden reforms and austerity measures led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis. [62] [63] [64] Unemployment shot up from 8% in 2008 to 27% in 2013 and remained at 22% in 2017. [65] As a result of the crisis, Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks left the country. [66] [67]

France

In April and May 2012, France held a presidential election in which the winner, François Hollande, had opposed austerity measures, promising to eliminate France's budget deficit by 2017 by canceling recently enacted tax cuts and exemptions for the wealthy, raising the top tax bracket rate to 75% on incomes over one million euros, restoring the retirement age to 60 with a full pension for those who have worked 42 years, restoring 60,000 jobs recently cut from public education, regulating rent increases, and building additional public housing for the poor. In the legislative elections in June, Hollande's Socialist Party won a supermajority capable of amending the French Constitution and enabling the immediate enactment of the promised reforms. Interest rates on French government bonds fell by 30% to record lows, [68] fewer than 50 basis points above German government bond rates. [69]

Latvia

Latvia's economy returned to growth in 2011 and 2012, outpacing the 27 nations in the EU, while implementing significant austerity measures. Advocates of austerity argue that Latvia represents an empirical example of the benefits of austerity, while critics argue that austerity created unnecessary hardship with the output in 2013 still below the pre-crisis level. [70] [71] While Anders Åslund maintains [72] that internal devaluation was not opposed by the Latvian public, Jokubas Salyga has recently chronicled [73] widespread protests against austerity in the country.

According to the CIA World Fact Book, "Latvia's economy experienced GDP growth of more than 10% per year during 2006–07, but entered a severe recession in 2008 as a result of an unsustainable current account deficit and large debt exposure amid the softening world economy. Triggered by the collapse of the second largest bank, GDP plunged 18% in 2009. The economy has not returned to pre-crisis levels despite strong growth, especially in the export sector in 2011–12. The IMF, EU, and other international donors provided substantial financial assistance to Latvia as part of an agreement to defend the currency's peg to the euro in exchange for the government's commitment to stringent austerity measures.

The IMF/EU program successfully concluded in December 2011. The government of Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis remained committed to fiscal prudence and reducing the fiscal deficit from 7.7% of GDP in 2010, to 2.7% of GDP in 2012." The CIA estimated that Latvia's GDP declined by 0.3% in 2010, then grew by 5.5% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. Unemployment was 12.8% in 2011 and rose to 14.3% in 2012. Latvia's currency, the Lati, fell from $0.47 per U.S. dollar in 2008 to $0.55 in 2012, a decline of 17%. Latvia entered the euro zone in 2014. [74] Latvia's trade deficit improved from over 20% of GDP in 2006 to 2007 [75] to under 2% GDP by 2012. [74]

Eighteen months after harsh austerity measures were enacted (including both spending cuts and tax increases), [75] economic growth began to return, although unemployment remained above pre-crisis levels. Latvian exports have skyrocketed and both the trade deficit and budget deficit have decreased dramatically. More than one-third of government positions were eliminated, and the rest received sharp pay cuts. Exports increased after goods prices were reduced due to private business lowering wages in tandem with the government. [70] [76]

Paul Krugman wrote in January 2013 that Latvia had yet to regain its pre-crisis level of employment. He also wrote, "So we're looking at a Depression-level slump, and 5 years later only a partial bounceback; unemployment is down but still very high, and the decline has a lot to do with emigration. It's not what you'd call a triumphant success story, any more than the partial US recovery from 1933 to 1936—which was actually considerably more impressive—represented a huge victory over the Depression. And it's in no sense a refutation of Keynesianism, either. Even in Keynesian models, a small open economy can, in the long run, restore full employment through deflation and internal devaluation; the point, however, is that it involves many years of suffering". [77]

Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis defended his policies in a television interview, stating that Krugman refused to admit his error in predicting that Latvia's austerity policy would fail. [78] Krugman had written a blog post in December 2008 entitled "Why Latvia is the New Argentina", in which he argued for Latvia to devalue its currency as an alternative or in addition to austerity. [79]

United Kingdom

Post war austerity

Following the Second World War the United Kingdom had huge debts, large commitments, and had sold many income producing assets. Rationing of food and other goods which had started in the war continued for some years.

21st century austerity programme

Following the financial crisis of 2007–2008 a period of economic recession began in the UK. The austerity programme was initiated in 2010 by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition government, despite some opposition from the academic community. [80] In his June 2010 budget speech, the Chancellor George Osborne identified two goals. The first was that the structural current budget deficit would be eliminated to "achieve cyclically-adjusted current balance by the end of the rolling, five-year forecast period". The second was that national debt as a percentage of GDP would fall. The government intended to achieve both of its goals through substantial reductions in public expenditure. This was to be achieved by a combination of public spending reductions and tax increases. Economists Alberto Alesina, Carlo A. Favero and Francesco Giavazzi, writing in Finance & Development in 2018, argued that deficit reduction policies based on spending cuts typically have almost no effect on output, and hence form a better route to achieving a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio than raising taxes. The authors commented that the UK government austerity programme had resulted in growth that was higher than the European average and that the UK's economic performance had been much stronger than the International Monetary Fund had predicted. [81] This claim was challenged most strongly by Mark Blyth, whose 2014 book on austerity claims that austerity not only fails to stimulate growth, but effectively passes that debt down to the working classes. [82] As such, many academics such as Andrew Gamble view Austerity in Britain less as an economic necessity, and more as a tool of statecraft, driven by ideology and not economic requirements. [83] A study published in The BMJ in November 2017 found the Conservative government austerity programme had been linked to approximately 120,000 deaths since 2010; however, this was disputed, for example on the grounds that it was an observational study which did not show cause and effect. [84] [85] More studies claim adverse effects of austerity on population health, which include an increase in the mortality rate among pensioners which has been linked to unprecedented reductions in income support, [86] an increase in suicides and the prescription of antidepressants for patients with mental health issues, [87] and an increase in violence, self-harm, and suicide in prisons. [88] [89]

United States

The United States' response to the 2008 economic crash was largely influenced by Wall Street and IMF interests, who favored fiscal retrenchment in the face of the economic crash. Evidence exists to suggest that Pete Peterson (and the Petersonites) have heavily influenced US policy on economic recovery since the Nixon era, [90] and presented itself in 2008, despite austerity measures being "wildly out of step with public opinion and reputable economic policy...[and showing] anti-Keynesian bias of supply-side economics and a political system skewed to favor Wall Street over Main Street". [91] The nuance of the economic logic of Keynesianism is, however, difficult to put across to the American Public, and compares poorly to the simplistic message which blames government spending, which might explain Obama's preferred position of a halfway point between economic stimulus followed by austerity, which led to him being criticized by economists such as Joseph Stiglitz. [92]

Controversy

Austerity can result in a paradox of thrift. Paradox(es) of Thrift (Austerity).png
Austerity can result in a paradox of thrift.
Austerity protest in Athens, 2011 2011 Greece Uprising.jpg
Austerity protest in Athens, 2011

Austerity programs can be controversial. In the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) briefing paper "The IMF and the Third World", the ODI addresses five major complaints against the IMF's austerity conditions. Complaints include such measures being "anti-developmental", "self-defeating", and tending "to have an adverse impact on the poorest segments of the population".

In many situations, austerity programs are implemented by countries that were previously under dictatorial regimes, leading to criticism that citizens are forced to repay the debts of their oppressors. [95] [96] [97]

In 2009, 2010, and 2011, workers and students in Greece and other European countries demonstrated against cuts to pensions, public services, and education spending as a result of government austerity measures. [98] [99]

Following the announcement of plans to introduce austerity measures in Greece, massive demonstrations occurred throughout the country aimed at pressing parliamentarians to vote against the austerity package. In Athens alone, 19 arrests were made, while 46 civilians and 38 policemen had been injured by 29 June 2011. The third round of austerity was approved by the Greek parliament on 12 February 2012 and met strong opposition, especially in Athens and Thessaloniki, where police clashed with demonstrators.

Opponents argue that austerity measures depress economic growth and ultimately cause reduced tax revenues that outweigh the benefits of reduced public spending. Moreover, in countries with already anemic economic growth, austerity can engender deflation, which inflates existing debt. Such austerity packages can also cause the country to fall into a liquidity trap, causing credit markets to freeze up and unemployment to increase. Opponents point to cases in Ireland and Spain in which austerity measures instituted in response to financial crises in 2009 proved ineffective in combating public debt and placed those countries at risk of defaulting in late 2010. [100]

In October 2012, the IMF announced that its forecasts for countries that implemented austerity programs have been consistently overoptimistic, suggesting that tax hikes and spending cuts have been doing more damage than expected and that countries that implemented fiscal stimulus, such as Germany and Austria, did better than expected. [24] These data have been scrutinized by the Financial Times, which found no significant trends when outliers like Germany and Greece were excluded. Determining the multipliers used in the research to achieve the results found by the IMF was also described as an "exercise in futility" by Professor Carlos Vegh of the University of Michigan. [101] Moreover, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley and Kevin H. O'Rourke of Oxford University write that the IMF's new estimate of the extent to which austerity restricts growth was much lower than historical data suggest. [102]

On 3 February 2015, Joseph Stiglitz wrote: "Austerity had failed repeatedly from its early use under US president Herbert Hoover, which turned the stock-market crash into the Great Depression, to the IMF programs imposed on East Asia and Latin America in recent decades. And yet when Greece got into trouble, it was tried again." [103] Government spending actually rose significantly under Hoover, while revenues were flat. [104]

According to a 2020 study, which used survey experiments in the UK, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Germany, voters strongly disapprove of austerity measures, in particular spending cuts. Voters disapprove of fiscal deficits but not as strongly as austerity. [105] A 2021 study found that incumbent European governments that implemented austerity measures in the Great Recession lost support in opinion polls. [106]

Austerity has been blamed for at least 120,000 deaths between 2010 and 2017 in the UK, [107] with one study putting it at 130,000 [108] and another at 30,000 in 2015 alone. [109] The first study added that "no firm conclusions can be drawn about cause and effect, but the findings back up other research in the field" and campaigners have claimed that cuts to benefits, healthcare and mental health services lead to more deaths including through suicide. [110]

Balancing stimulus and austerity

Strategies that involve short-term stimulus with longer-term austerity are not mutually exclusive. Steps can be taken in the present that will reduce future spending, such as "bending the curve" on pensions by reducing cost of living adjustments or raising the retirement age for younger members of the population, while at the same time creating short-term spending or tax cut programs to stimulate the economy to create jobs.[ citation needed ]

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde wrote in August 2011, "For the advanced economies, there is an unmistakable need to restore fiscal sustainability through credible consolidation plans. At the same time we know that slamming on the brakes too quickly will hurt the recovery and worsen job prospects. So fiscal adjustment must resolve the conundrum of being neither too fast nor too slow. Shaping a Goldilocks fiscal consolidation is all about timing. What is needed is a dual focus on medium-term consolidation and short-term support for growth. That may sound contradictory, but the two are mutually reinforcing. Decisions on future consolidation, tackling the issues that will bring sustained fiscal improvement, create space in the near term for policies that support growth." [111]

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke wrote in September 2011, "the two goals—achieving fiscal sustainability, which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer term, and avoiding creation of fiscal headwinds for the recovery—are not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the long term, while being attentive to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term, can help serve both objectives." [112]

"Age of austerity"

The term "age of austerity" was popularised by UK Conservative Party leader David Cameron in his keynote speech to the Conservative Party forum in Cheltenham on 26 April 2009, in which he committed to end years of what he called "excessive government spending". [113] [114] Theresa May claimed that "Austerity is over" as of 3 October 2018, [115] a statement which was almost immediately met with criticism on the reality of its central claim, particularly in relation to the high possibility of a substantial economic downturn due to Brexit. [116]

Word of the year

Merriam-Webster's Dictionary named the word austerity as its "Word of the year" for 2010 because of the number of web searches this word generated that year. According to the president and publisher of the dictionary, "austerity had more than 250,000 searches on the dictionary's free online [website] tool" and the spike in searches "came with more coverage of the debt crisis". [117]

Examples of austerity

Criticism

According to economist David Stuckler and physician Sanjay Basu in their study The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills, a health crisis is being triggered by austerity policies, including up to 10,000 additional suicides that have occurred across Europe and the U.S. since the introduction of austerity programs. [153]

Much of the acceptance of austerity in the general public has centred on the way debate has been framed, and relates to an issue with representative democracy; since the public do not have widely available access to the latest economic research, which is highly critical of economic retrenchment in times of crisis, the public must rely on which politician sounds most plausible. [154] This can unfortunately lead to authoritative leaders pursuing policies which make little, if any, economic sense.

According to a 2020 study, austerity does not pay off in terms of reducing the default premium in situations of severe fiscal stress. Rather, austerity increases the default premium. However, in situations of low fiscal stress, austerity does reduce the default premium. The study also found that increases in government consumption had no substantial impact on the default premium. [39]

Clara E. Mattei, assistant professor of economics at the New School for Social Research, posits that austerity is less of a means to "fix the economy" and is more of an ideological weapon of class oppression wielded by economic and political elites in order to suppress revolts and unrest by the working class public and close off any alternatives to the capitalist system. She traces the origins of modern austerity to post-World War I Britain and Italy, when it served as a "powerful counteroffensive" to rising working class agitation and anti-capitalist sentiment. In this, she quotes British economist G. D. H. Cole writing on the British response to the economic downturn of 1921:

"The big working-class offensive had been successfully stalled off; and British capitalism, though threatened with economic adversity, felt itself once more safely in the saddle and well able to cope, both industrially and politically, with any attempt that might still be made from the labour side to unseat it." [155]

DeLong–Summers condition

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence Summers explained why an expansionary fiscal policy is effective in reducing a government's future debt burden, pointing out that the policy has a positive impact on its future productivity level. [156] They pointed out that when an economy is depressed and its nominal interest rate is near zero, the real interest rate charged to firms is linked to the output as . This means that the rate decreases as the real GDP increases, and the actual fiscal multiplier is higher than that in normal times; a fiscal stimulus is more effective for the case where the interest rates are at the zero bound. As the economy is boosted by government spending, the increased output yields higher tax revenue, and so we have

where is a baseline marginal tax-and-transfer rate. Also, we need to take account of the economy's long-run growth rate , as a steady economic growth rate may reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio. Then we can see that an expansionary fiscal policy is self-financing: [156]

as long as is less than zero. Then we can find that a fiscal stimulus makes the long-term budget in surplus if the real government borrowing rate satisfies the following condition: [156]

Impacts on short-run budget deficit

Research by Gauti Eggertsson et al. indicates that a government's fiscal austerity measures actually increase its short-term budget deficit if the nominal interest rate is very low. [157] In normal time, the government sets the tax rates and the central bank controls the nominal interest rate . If the rate is so low that monetary policies cannot mitigate the negative impact of the austerity measures, the significant decrease of tax base makes the revenue of the government and the budget position worse. [158] If the multiplier is

then we have , where

That is, the austerity measures are counterproductive in the short-run, as long as the multiplier is larger than a certain level . This erosion of the tax base is the effect of the endogenous component of the deficit. [158] Therefore, if the government increases sales taxes, then it reduces the tax base due to its negative effect on the demand, and it upsets the budget balance.

No credit risk

For a country that has its own currency, its government can create credits by itself, and its central bank can keep the interest rate close to or equal to the nominal risk-free rate. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says that the probability that the US defaults on its debt repayment is zero, because the US government can print money. [159] The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says that the US government's debt is denominated in US dollars; therefore the government will never go bankrupt, though it may introduce the risk of inflation. [159]

Alternatives to austerity

A number of alternative plans have been used and proposed as an alternative to implementing austerity measures, examples include:

Alternatives to implementing austerity measures may utilise increased government borrowing in the short-term (such as for use in infrastructure development and public work projects) to attempt to achieve long-term economic growth. Alternately, instead of government borrowing, governments can raise taxes to fund public sector activity.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Reaganomics</span> Economic policies of Ronald Reagan

Reaganomics, or Reaganism, were the neoliberal economic policies promoted by U.S. President Ronald Reagan during the 1980s. These policies are characterized as supply-side economics, trickle-down economics, or "voodoo economics" by opponents, while Reagan and his advocates preferred to call it free-market economics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fiscal policy</span> Use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a countrys economy

In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% percent and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.

In economics, the fiscal multiplier is the ratio of change in national income arising from a change in government spending. More generally, the exogenous spending multiplier is the ratio of change in national income arising from any autonomous change in spending. When this multiplier exceeds one, the enhanced effect on national income may be called the multiplier effect. The mechanism that can give rise to a multiplier effect is that an initial incremental amount of spending can lead to increased income and hence increased consumption spending, increasing income further and hence further increasing consumption, etc., resulting in an overall increase in national income greater than the initial incremental amount of spending. In other words, an initial change in aggregate demand may cause a change in aggregate output that is a multiple of the initial change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deficit spending</span> Spending in excess of revenue

Within the budgetary process, deficit spending is the amount by which spending exceeds revenue over a particular period of time, also called simply deficit, or budget deficit; the opposite of budget surplus. The term may be applied to the budget of a government, private company, or individual. Government deficit spending was first identified as a necessary economic tool by John Maynard Keynes in the wake of the Great Depression. It is a central point of controversy in economics, as discussed below.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government budget balance</span> Difference between revenues and spending

The government budget balance, also referred to as the general government balance, public budget balance, or public fiscal balance, is the difference between government revenues and spending. For a government that uses accrual accounting the budget balance is calculated using only spending on current operations, with expenditure on new capital assets excluded. A positive balance is called a government budget surplus, and a negative balance is a government budget deficit. A government budget presents the government's proposed revenues and spending for a financial year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government debt</span> Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

A country's gross government debt is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.

In economics, crowding out is a phenomenon that occurs when increased government involvement in a sector of the market economy substantially affects the remainder of the market, either on the supply or demand side of the market.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States federal budget</span> Budget of the U.S. federal government

The United States budget comprises the spending and revenues of the U.S. federal government. The budget is the financial representation of the priorities of the government, reflecting historical debates and competing economic philosophies. The government primarily spends on healthcare, retirement, and defense programs. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office provides extensive analysis of the budget and its economic effects. CBO estimated in February 2024 that Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 99 percent of GDP in 2024 to 116 percent in 2034 and would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2034, pushing federal debt higher still, to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Great Recession</span> Global economic decline from 2007 to 2009

The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline observed in national economies globally, i.e. a recession, that occurred in the late 2000s. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">European debt crisis</span> Multi-year debt crisis in multiple EU countries since late 2009

The European debt crisis, often also referred to as the eurozone crisis or the European sovereign debt crisis, was a multi-year debt crisis that took place in the European Union (EU) from 2009 until the mid to late 2010s. Several eurozone member states were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or to bail out over-indebted banks under their national supervision without the assistance of third parties like other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greek government-debt crisis</span> Sovereign debt crisis faced by Greece (2009–2018)

Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Widely known in the country as The Crisis, it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis. In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country.

Political debates about the United States federal budget discusses some of the more significant U.S. budgetary debates of the 21st century. These include the causes of debt increases, the impact of tax cuts, specific events such as the United States fiscal cliff, the effectiveness of stimulus, and the impact of the Great Recession, among others. The article explains how to analyze the U.S. budget as well as the competing economic schools of thought that support the budgetary positions of the major parties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deficit reduction in the United States</span> Economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the U.S. federal government budget deficit

Deficit reduction in the United States refers to taxation, spending, and economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the federal government budget deficit. Government agencies including the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the U.S. Treasury Department have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, mainly driven by an aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and rising interest payments on the national debt.

The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis predicts that, under certain limited circumstances, a major reduction in government spending that changes future expectations about taxes and government spending will expand private consumption, resulting in overall economic expansion. This hypothesis was introduced by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano in 1990 in a paper that used the fiscal restructurings of Denmark and Ireland in the 1980s as examples.

The 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis was part of the wider downturn of the Portuguese economy that started in 2001 and possibly ended between 2016 and 2017. The period from 2010 to 2014 was probably the hardest and more challenging part of the entire economic crisis; this period includes the 2011–14 international bailout to Portugal and was marked by intense austerity policies, more intense than the wider 2001-2017 crisis. Economic growth stalled in Portugal between 2001 and 2002, and following years of internal economic crisis, the worldwide Great Recession started to hit Portugal in 2008 and eventually led to the country being unable to repay or refinance its government debt without the assistance of third parties. To prevent an insolvency situation in the debt crisis, Portugal applied in April 2011 for bail-out programs and drew a cumulated €78 billion from the IMF, the EFSM, and the EFSF. Portugal exited the bailout in May 2014, the same year that positive economic growth re-appeared following three years of recession. The government achieved a 2.1% budget deficit in 2016 and in 2017 the economy grew 2.7%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Causes of the European debt crisis</span>

The European debt crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic reforms and recovery proposals regarding the eurozone crisis</span>

The eurozone crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sectoral balances</span> Sectoral analysis framework

The sectoral balances are a sectoral analysis framework for macroeconomic analysis of national economies developed by British economist Wynne Godley.

A balance sheet recession is a type of economic recession that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline. The term is attributed to economist Richard Koo and is related to the debt deflation concept described by economist Irving Fisher. Recent examples include Japan's recession that began in 1990 and the U.S. recession of 2007-2009.

Greece is one of the original members of the International Monetary Fund, joining it on December 27, 1945. It has a quota of 2,428.90 million SDRs and 25,754 votes, 0.51% of the total IMF quota and votes. Greece has been represented on the IMF Board of Governors by Minister of Finance Christos Staikouras since 2019. Greece elects an Executive Director on the fund's Executive Board with Albania, Italy, Malta, Portugal and San Marino. Michail Psalidopoulos is the elected alternate director. Greece has signed two loan agreements with the IMF: a Stand-By Arrangement from 2010 to 2012 and an agreement under the Extended Fund Facility from 2012 to 2016, borrowing a total of 27,766.3 million SDR. Greece owes the IMF 6,735.64 million SDR, and is the fund's third-largest borrower. In 2018, the fund began conducting annual post-program monitoring of Greece in addition to its annual Article IV consultation.

References

  1. "Austerity measure". Financial Times Lexicon. Archived from the original on 22 March 2013. Retrieved 1 March 2013.
  2. Traynor, Ian; Katie Allen (11 June 2010). "Austerity Europe: who faces the cuts". London: Guardian News. Retrieved 29 September 2010.
  3. Wesbury, Brian S.; Robert Stein (26 July 2010). "Government Austerity: The Good, Bad And Ugly". Forbes. Archived from the original on 29 September 2010. Retrieved 29 September 2010.
  4. Hayes, Adam (4 March 2021). "Austerity". Investopedia. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  5. "Austerity – Pros and Cons". Economics Help. 5 February 2020.
  6. "What is austerity?". The Economist.
  7. Storm, Servaas (3 July 2019). "Lost in Deflation: Why Italy's Woes Are a Warning to the Whole Eurozone". International Journal of Political Economy. 48 (3): 195–237. doi: 10.1080/08911916.2019.1655943 . ISSN   0891-1916.
  8. Krugman, Paul (15 April 2012). "Europe's Economic Suicide". The New York Times.
  9. 1 2 Laura D'Andrea Tyson (1 June 2012). "Confusion about the Deficit". The New York Times . Retrieved 16 May 2013.
  10. Alesina, Alberto; Favero, Carlo; Giavazzi, Francesco (2019). Austerity: When It Works and When It Doesn't. Princeton University Press. p. 5. ISBN   978-0-691-17221-7. JSTOR   j.ctvc77f4b.
  11. 1 2 3 4 Mattei, Clara Elisabetta (3 September 2017). "Austerity and repressive politics: Italian economists in the early years of the fascist government" (PDF). The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought. 24 (5): 998–1026. doi:10.1080/09672567.2017.1301510. S2CID   88508169.
  12. 1 2 Joos, Vincent (2021). The struggle of non-sovereign Caribbean territories: neoliberalism since the French Antillean Uprisings of 2009. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press. ISBN   9781978815742.
  13. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Meissner, Christopher M.; McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David (March 2021). "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party". The Journal of Economic History . 81 (1): 81–113. doi: 10.1017/S0022050720000601 . S2CID   232199939.
  14. Paul Krugman (6 June 2013). "How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled". New York Times. Retrieved 17 May 2013.
  15. Lewis, Michael (4 October 2011). "How The Financial Crisis Created A 'New Third World'". NPR.org. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
  16. 1 2 Blyth, Mark (2013). Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN   978-0199828302.
  17. David M Kotz, The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism . (Harvard University Press, 2015), ISBN   0674725654
  18. Krugman, Paul (29 December 2011). "Opinion | Keynes Was Right". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  19. 1 2 Krugman, Paul (31 May 2012). "Opinion | The Austerity Agenda". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  20. "Aggregate Demand, Instability and Growth" Review of Keynesian Economics, January 2013 (see also this review of the paper)
  21. "Profits and Business Investment". Paul Krugman Blog. The New York Times. 9 February 2013. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  22. "Still Say's Law After All These Years". Paul Krugman Blog. The New York Times. 10 February 2013. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  23. Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S. (25 April 2013). "Opinion | Debt, Growth and the Austerity Debate". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  24. 1 2 Brad Plumer (12 October 2012) "IMF: Austerity is much worse for the economy than we thought" Archived 11 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine Washington Post
  25. "IMF World Economic Outlook October 2012 - Box 1.1 Pages 41-43" (PDF).
  26. Batini, N., Eyraud, L., Weber, A. (2014) "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers", IMF Working Paper No. 14/93. Link
  27. Zandi, Mark. "A Second Quick Boost From Government Could Spark Recovery". Edited excerpts from congressional testimony 24 July 2008.
  28. "CBO-Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output from Changes in Fiscal Policies-May 2012" (PDF).
  29. "CBO ranks Democratic and Republican stimulus proposals in one chart". Washington Post.
  30. "Congressional Budget Office Report Proves Spending Cuts Won't Boost Economic Growth - ThinkProgress". ThinkProgress .
  31. 1 2 "The balance sheet recession in the US". Financial Times.
  32. Wolf, Martin (10 July 2012). "We still have that sinking feeling". Financial Times.
  33. 1 2 "The Problem". Paul Krugman Blog. The New York Times. 28 December 2011. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  34. "Richard Koo-The world in balance sheet recession-Real World Economics Review-December 2011" (PDF).
  35. Hopkin, Jonathan; Rosamond, Ben (2018). "Post-truth Politics, Bullshit and Bad Ideas: 'Deficit Fetishism' in the UK". New Political Economy. 23 (6): 641–655. doi:10.1080/13563467.2017.1373757. S2CID   149331448.
  36. Berman, A. The Austerity Class, Nation, Vol. 293, Issue 19, (Nov 2011), (pp.11–17), p.14
  37. Seymour, R. Against Austerity: How We Can Fix The Crisis They Made (London: Pluto Press 2014), pp.18-19
  38. Major, A. Architects of Austerity: International Finance and the Politics of Growth (Stanford: Stanford University Press 2014), pp.57-58
  39. 1 2 Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes (26 June 2019). "Does Austerity Pay Off?". The Review of Economics and Statistics. 102 (2): 323–338. doi: 10.1162/rest_a_00844 . ISSN   0034-6535. S2CID   54506811.
  40. EU austerity drive country by country, BBC (21 May 2012)
  41. Martin Wolf (27 April 2012) "The impact of fiscal austerity in the eurozone" Financial Times
  42. 1 2 "Eurostat-Selected Principal European Economic Indicators-Retrieved 15 August 2012".
  43. 1 2 3 "The World Factbook". 29 September 2021.
  44. "Eurostat News Release-Euro indicators-23 April 2012" (PDF).
  45. "Eurostat-Euro area and EU 27 government deficit and debt statistics-22 April 2013" (PDF).
  46. "Eurostat-Flash Estimate for Q1 2013 – May 2013" (PDF).
  47. "Eurostat News Release-Euro area unemployment rate at 12.1%-April 30, 2013" (PDF).
  48. Aaron Smith (31 October 2012). "Eurozone unemployment hits record high". CNNMoney.
  49. "The impact of fiscal austerity in the eurozone". Financial Times.
  50. "Austerity And Growth, Again (Wonkish)". 24 April 2012.
  51. "Greeks clash with riot police as politicans[sic] pass austerity measures" . The Daily Telegraph. 7 November 2012. Archived from the original on 12 January 2022. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  52. "Two-Day Strike in Greece Ahead of Austerity Vote". The New York Times. 28 June 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  53. "Στα χνάρια των Ισπανών αγανακτισμένων". www.skai.gr (in Greek). 25 May 2011. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  54. Weisenthal, Joe (29 June 2011). "Greek Government Wins Huge Austerity Vote". Business Insider. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  55. "Greek austerity measures could violate human rights, UN expert says". United Nations. 30 June 2011. Retrieved 3 July 2011.
  56. Andrew Berg and Jonathan Ostry. (2011) "Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin" IMF Staff Discussion Note No. SDN/11/08 (International Monetary Fund)
  57. Luc Eyraud and Anke Weber. (2013) "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation" IMF Working Paper Series No. WP/13/67 (International Monetary Fund)
  58. "The English Prisoner". Paul Krugman Blog. The New York Times. 9 March 2013. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  59. "The IMF on the Austerity Trap". Paul Krugman Blog. The New York Times. 10 March 2013. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  60. 1 2 "Eurostat (Government debt data)". Eurostat. Retrieved 5 September 2018.
  61. "Eurostat (2017 Government debt data)". Eurostat. 24 April 2018. Retrieved 5 September 2018.
  62. iefimerida.gr (20 July 2015). "BBC: Η Ελλάδα βιώνει ανθρωπιστική κρίση -Εννέα αποκαλυπτικά γραφήματα [εικόνες]" (in Greek).
  63. Naftemporiki (26 March 2015). "Η Ελλάδα και η ανθρωπιστική κρίση" (in Greek).
  64. "BBC : Οι Έλληνες προτιμούν το χάος από τη λιτότητα". NewsIT. 1 November 2011.
  65. "Greece - Unemployment rate". IndexMundi. Retrieved 17 October 2018.
  66. Oxenford, Matthew; Chryssogelos, Angelos (16 August 2018). "Greek Bailout: IMF and Europeans Diverge on Lessons Learnt". Chatham House. Retrieved 20 August 2018.
  67. "Washington Post: Ποιο success story; Άλλα 40 χρόνια λιτότητας στην Ελλάδα!". NewsIT. 4 August 2018.
  68. Bloomberg (2012) French government bond interest rates (graph)
  69. Bloomberg (2012) German government bond interest rates (graph)
  70. 1 2 Higgins, Andrew (1 January 2013). "Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  71. Edward Hugh-A Fistful of Euros-Why The IMF's Decision To Agree A Lavian Bailout Programme Without Devaluation Is A Mistake-December 2008
  72. Åslund, Anders (October 2010). The Last Shall Be the First: The East European Financial Crisis. Peterson Institute for International Economics. ISBN   978-0-88132-599-7.
  73. Salyga, Jokubas (2 January 2023). "Geographies of quiescence? Social movements, panoramas of struggle and Baltic austerity politics". Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe. 31 (1): 171–199. doi:10.1080/25739638.2023.2182510. ISSN   2573-9638. S2CID   257291726.
  74. 1 2 "Europe :: Latvia — The World Factbook - Central Intelligence Agency". www.cia.gov. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  75. 1 2 "Why The IMF's Decision To Agree A Lavian Bailout Programme Without Devaluation Is A Mistake".
  76. "IMF Survey : Latvia's Recovery Continues As It Eyes Euro Adoption".
  77. "Latvia, Once Again". Paul Krugman Blog. 2 January 2013. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  78. Barnato, Katy (15 March 2013). "Krugman Can't Admit He Was Wrong on Austerity: Latvia PM". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  79. "Latvia is the new Argentina (slightly wonkish)". Paul Krugman Blog. 23 December 2008. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  80. Hopkin, J. and Rosamond, B. Post-Truth Politics, Bullshit and Bad Ideas: Deficit Fetishism in the UK, New Political Economy, Issue 23, No.6, (Sep 2017), pp.641–655
  81. Alesina, Alberto; Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco (March 2018). "Climbing Out of Debt". Finance & Development. International Monetary Fund. 55 (1).
  82. Blyth, M. Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2014), p.10
  83. Gamble, A. Austerity as Statecraft, Parliamentary Affairs, vol.68, Issue 1, (Jan 2015), (pp.42–57), p.42
  84. Alex Matthews-King (15 November 2017). "Landmark study links Tory Austerity to 120,000 deaths". The Independent.
  85. Johnson, Emma (15 November 2017). "Health and social care spending cuts linked to 120,000 excess deaths in England". BMJ Open. Retrieved 8 February 2019.
  86. Loopstra, Rachel; McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David (March 2016). "Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007–2013". Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. 109 (3): 109–116. doi:10.1177/0141076816632215. ISSN   0141-0768. PMC   4794969 . PMID   26980412.
  87. Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret (1 December 2015). "Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013". Social Science & Medicine. 147: 324–331. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.11.009. ISSN   0277-9536. PMID   26623942.
  88. Ismail, Nasrul (2019). "Rolling back the prison estate: the pervasive impact of macroeconomic austerity on prisoner health in England". Journal of Public Health. 42 (3): 625–632. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdz058 . PMC   7435213 . PMID   31125072.
  89. Ismail, Nasrul (2019). "Contextualising the pervasive impact of macroeconomic austerity on prison health in England: a qualitative study among international policymakers". BMC Public Health. 19 (1): 1043. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-7396-7 . PMC   6683431 . PMID   31383010.
  90. Berman, A. The Austerity Class, Nation, Vol. 293, Issue 19, (Nov 2011), (pp.11–17), p.12
  91. Berman, A. The Austerity Class, Nation, Vol. 293, Issue 19, (Nov 2011), (pp.11–17), p.11
  92. Berman, A. The Austerity Class, Nation, Vol. 293, Issue 19, (Nov 2011), (pp.11–17), p.17
  93. Kitromilides, Yiannis (1 April 2011). "Deficit reduction, the age of austerity, and the paradox of insolvency". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. 33 (3): 517–536. doi:10.2753/PKE0160-3477330306. ISSN   0160-3477. S2CID   154583008.
  94. Scott, Robert H. (26 January 2023). "Paradox of thrift". Elgar Encyclopedia of Post-Keynesian Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. pp. 324–325. doi:10.4337/9781788973939.paradox.of.thrift. ISBN   978-1-78897-393-9.
  95. Harvey, D. (2005) A Brief History of Neoliberalism
  96. Klein, N. (2007) The Shock Doctrine
  97. Chomsky, N. (2004) Hegemony or Survival
  98. Kyriakidou, Dina (4 August 2010). "In Greece you get a bonus for showing up for work – Arcane benefits add billions to Greece's bloated budget". Toronto Star. Toronto. Retrieved 29 September 2010.
  99. Costas Kantouris and Nicholas Paphitis (10 September 2011). "Greek police, firefighters protest". The Boston Globe . Associated Press . Retrieved 29 September 2011.
  100. Leung, Sophie (11 November 2010). "Stiglitz Says Ireland Has Bleak Prospect of Cutting Deficit, Saving Banks". Bloomberg. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  101. Giles, Chris (12 October 2012). "Robustness of IMF data scrutinised" . Financial Times. Archived from the original on 11 December 2022. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  102. Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H O'Rourke (23 October 2012) "Gauging the multiplier: Lessons from history" VoxEU.org
  103. "A Greek Morality Tale". Project Syndicate. 3 February 2015.
  104. "Hoover Was No Budget Cutter". The Atlantic. 9 July 2011.
  105. Hübscher, Evelyne; Sattler, Thomas; Wagner, Markus (2020). "Voter Responses to Fiscal Austerity". British Journal of Political Science. 51 (4): 1751–1760. doi: 10.1017/S0007123420000320 . ISSN   0007-1234.
  106. Bojar, Abel; Bremer, Björn; Kriesi, Hanspeter; Wang, Chendi (2021). "The Effect of Austerity Packages on Government Popularity During the Great Recession". British Journal of Political Science. 52: 181–199. doi: 10.1017/S0007123420000472 . hdl: 1814/69865 . ISSN   0007-1234.
  107. "Landmark study links Tory austerity to 120,000 deaths".
  108. "Austerity to blame for 130,000 'preventable' UK deaths – report". TheGuardian.com . June 2019.
  109. "New analysis links 30,000 excess deaths in 2015 to cuts in health and social care". 17 February 2017.
  110. "Do cuts kill?". TheGuardian.com . 16 November 2011.
  111. "Don't let fiscal brakes stall global recovery" . Financial Times. 15 August 2011. Archived from the original on 11 December 2022. Retrieved 5 November 2012.
  112. "Speech by Chairman Bernanke on the U.S. economic outlook". Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  113. Deborah Summers (26 April 2009). "David Cameron warns of 'new age of austerity'". The Guardian. . Archived from the original on 29 April 2009. Retrieved 26 April 2009.
  114. M. Nicolas Firzli & Vincent Bazi. "Infrastructure Investments in an Age of Austerity : The Pension and Sovereign Funds Perspective". Revue Analyse Financière, volume 41 (Q4 2011 ed.). Archived from the original on 17 September 2011. Retrieved 30 July 2011.
  115. Inman, Phillip (4 October 2018). "Is austerity really over? Theresa May's promise lacks key details". The Guardian via www.theguardian.com.
  116. Belke, A. Gros, D. The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol.45, Issue 3, (Sep 2017) (pp.317–331), p.329
  117. Contreras, Russell (20 December 2010). "Audacity of 'austerity,' 2010 Word of the Year". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 4 February 2013. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  118. Time (1952), "Argentina: Inflexible Austerity"
  119. "Argentina's Macri imposes new austerity measures". DW.
  120. "First protests in Argentina against Milei's austerity plan". 21 December 2023. Retrieved 29 December 2023.
  121. "Australia unveils austerity budget to tackle deficit". FT. Archived from the original on 11 December 2022.
  122. "China's Leadership Embraces Austerity In All Its Forms". FP.
  123. "Ecuador's Neoliberal Government Announces State Emergency to Impose Austerity". News Click.
  124. Moulds, Josephine (8 June 2012). "Estonia and Latvia: Europe's champions of austerity?". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2 August 2023.
  125. "Clashes as austerity anger drives Europe strikes". CNN.
  126. Kuokkanen, Anna (19 January 2023). "1990-luvun laman talousopit ja tulevan vaalikauden talouspolitiikka · Kalevi Sorsa -säätiö". Kalevi Sorsa -säätiö (in Finnish). Retrieved 14 May 2023.
  127. "Katainen: Uusista sopeutuksista sovittava tänä keväänä". mtvuutiset.fi (in Finnish). 5 February 2014. Retrieved 14 May 2023.
  128. Kuokkanen, Anna (19 January 2023). "1990-luvun laman talousopit ja tulevan vaalikauden talouspolitiikka · Kalevi Sorsa -säätiö". Kalevi Sorsa -säätiö (in Finnish). Retrieved 14 May 2023.
  129. Henley, Jon; correspondent, Jon Henley Europe (16 June 2023). "Finland's 'most rightwing government ever' to cut spending and immigration". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2 August 2023.
  130. "1932 : l'affaire des fraudes fiscales et le gouvernement Herriot". 2007.
  131. "Herodote". 27 November 2018.
  132. "Word Socialist Web Site". 21 November 2013.
  133. "France culture". 29 April 2014.
  134. Sonja Pace (16 June 2010). "Germany Approves Biggest Austerity Plan Since World War II | News | English". Berlin: voanews.com. Archived from the original on 19 June 2010. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  135. "WRAPUP 4-Greek debt costs spike on budget jitters". Reuters. 21 January 2010.
  136. "UPDATE 2-Italy joins Europe's austerity club with deep cuts". Reuters. 25 May 2010.
  137. (AFP) - 27 July 2010 (27 July 2010). "AFP: Japan unveils budget austerity guidelines" . Retrieved 1 July 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  138. "Soros says EU "wrong" to push austerity on Latvia". Reuters. 10 October 2009.
  139. "Mexico's Austerity Plans". The New York Times. 8 February 1985.
  140. "Bloomberg". 1 July 2020.
  141. "Revista Envío – President Arnoldo Alemán Between the Fund and the Front". Envio.org.ni. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  142. "Bankrupt Hamas government unveils austerity package". Americanintifada.com. Archived from the original on 7 July 2011. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  143. "Stability pays". The Economist. 25 March 2004. Retrieved 22 August 2015.
  144. Cambon, Diane (27 June 2008). "Budget, impôts, retraite : la leçon d'austérité du Portugal" [Budget, taxes, reforms: Portugal's lesson of austerity]. Le Figaro (in French). Retrieved 22 August 2015.
  145. Leigh Phillips (20 May 2010). "EUobserver / Romania sees biggest protest since 1989 over austerity measures". Euobserver.com. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  146. Salvadó, Francisco J. Romero (1999) Twentieth-century Spain: politics and society in Spain, 1898–1998
  147. "Fiscal consolidation in Sweden: A role model?". CEPR. 25 September 2012. Retrieved 15 May 2023.
  148. Popovski, Max (29 June 2021). "Austerity and the Swedish Political Economy: A Case Study on the Rise of the Swedish Consolidation State".
  149. "Uk contemporary history sourcebook" (PDF). p. 28. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  150. Coates, Sam; Evans, Judith (7 June 2010). "Cameron fingers culprits for Britains 770bn debt pile". The Times. London.
  151. James Kirkup (5 January 2014). "George Osborne to cut taxes by extending austerity and creating smaller state". Archived from the original on 6 January 2014. Retrieved 24 October 2015.
  152. "Lutte ouvrière". 24 February 2016.
  153. Why Austerity Kills: From Greece to U.S., Crippling Economic Policies Causing Global Health Crisis. Democracy Now! . 21 May 2013.
  154. Hopkin, J. and Rosamond, B. Post-Truth Politics, Bullshit and Bad Ideas: Deficit Fetishism in the UK, New Political Economy, Issue 23, No.6, (Sep 2017), (pp.641-655), p.645
  155. Mattei 2022, pp. 1–7, 288–289.
  156. 1 2 3 J. DeLong and L. Summers, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 233 (2012)
  157. M. Denes, G. Eggertsson and S. Gilbukh, Staff report, FRB of New York, 551 (2012)
  158. 1 2 G. Eggertsson, German Economic Review, 1, 1 (2013)
  159. 1 2 It Is Impossible For The US To Default J. Harvey, Forbes, Leadership, 10 September 2012

Further reading