Thomas Herndon | |
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Born | 25 February, 1985 39) | (age
Education | Economics |
Alma mater | Evergreen State College University of Massachusetts Amherst |
Known for | Exposing fundamental errors in "Growth in a Time of Debt" |
Notable work | Academic paper: Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff [1] |
Thomas Herndon (born 25 February, 1985) is an associate professor of economics at John Jay College, CUNY in New York City, who has previously worked as assistant professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. During his PhD studies at the University of Massachusetts Amherst Herndon became known for critiquing "Growth in a Time of Debt", a widely cited academic paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff supporting the austerity policies implemented by governments in Europe and North America in the early 21st century. His research concluded that these measures may not have been necessary. [2]
Herndon proved that the paper contained multiple errors, provoking widespread international interest. [3] [4] The Reinhart–Rogoff paper was frequently cited during the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign. [5] It was also frequently cited among policymakers in congress, including in the drafting of the Bowles-Simpson report. However, there are differing views on the actual impact the original paper may have had on policy making. [6]
The findings have been described as "shocking" and as having rocked the economics world. Publications such as The Washington Post had for several years taken the conclusions of the Reinhart–Rogoff paper as an "economic consensus view." [7] [8] New York magazine wrote that Herndon "just used part of his spring semester to shake the intellectual foundation of the global austerity movement." [9]
During his graduate studies in a class with Professor Michael Ash, Herndon was assigned to pick an economics paper and try to replicate the results. He chose "Growth in a Time of Debt", and throughout the semester his attempts to replicate the results proved unsuccessful. After further consultation with his professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, Herndon was encouraged to contact the authors Reinhart and Rogoff at Harvard. They provided him with the actual working spreadsheet they had used to obtain their results. Herndon looked into the detail of the original spreadsheet and found several issues: [4]
The basic conclusion that countries with indebtedness rates above 90% of GDP have lower growth rates still held, but the most spectacular results disappeared, the relationship was much gentler and there were numerous exceptions to the rule. These results were published on 15 April 2013 as a draft working paper, and in 2014 in the peer-reviewed Cambridge Journal of Economics . [6] [4] [10]
A spreadsheet is a computer application for computation, organization, analysis and storage of data in tabular form. Spreadsheets were developed as computerized analogs of paper accounting worksheets. The program operates on data entered in cells of a table. Each cell may contain either numeric or text data, or the results of formulas that automatically calculate and display a value based on the contents of other cells. The term spreadsheet may also refer to one such electronic document.
Economic history is the study of history using methodological tools from economics or with a special attention to economic phenomena. Research is conducted using a combination of historical methods, statistical methods and the application of economic theory to historical situations and institutions. The field can encompass a wide variety of topics, including equality, finance, technology, labour, and business. It emphasizes historicizing the economy itself, analyzing it as a dynamic entity and attempting to provide insights into the way it is structured and conceived.
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Kenneth Saul Rogoff is an American economist and chess Grandmaster.
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Carmen M. Reinhart is a Cuban-American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. She is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Founding Contributor of VoxEU, and a member of Council on Foreign Relations. She is also a member of American Economic Association, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, and the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. She became the subject of general news coverage when mathematical errors were found in a research paper she co-authored.
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Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the evidence for the 90%-debt threshold hypothesis provided support for pro-austerity policies.
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The new research suggests that austerity measures may not have been necessary