Scientific wild-ass guess

Last updated

Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) is an American English slang term meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition. It is similar to the slang word guesstimate , a portmanteau of guess and estimate. [1]

Contents

History

The slang term "SWAG" is generally thought to have originated in the US military, either the Army [2] or the Air Force. [3] Journalist Melvin J. Lasky wrote that it was first used casually by US Army General William Westmoreland during the Vietnam War. Westmoreland would sometimes reply "SWAG" to reporters' questions about American failure to neutralize the enemy. [1] Westmoreland's use of the term was affirmed in court by Colonel John Frank Stewart in November 1984 during witness testimony for the lawsuit initiated by Westmoreland against CBS for their TV documentary The Uncounted Enemy: A Vietnam Deception . On the witness stand, Stewart explained that in Vietnam, the military intelligence branch that he commanded would deliver numbers of enemy strength to Westmoreland, the numbers derived from "the SWAG principle". [4] There was laughter in the court when Stewart explained what was meant by the acronym SWAG. [4]

An earlier use of term is mentioned by linguist J. Robert Dumouchel who wrote the 1975 book, Dictionary of Development Terminology. Dumouchel says he first encountered SWAG "in the vernacular of community development" in the US in the 1960s. [2]

Regardless of its origin, the term gained greater prominence in the first half of 1999 in connection with the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Reporter John F. Harris of The Washington Post was the first person to put the term into a newspaper article. Describing the factors that led to President Bill Clinton relying on the US Air Force in Kosovo instead of employing "200,000 NATO troops", [5] Harris wrote that NATO's estimate requiring 200,000 ground troops was regarded by American war planners as politically impossible to achieve; it was quickly removed from consideration. "NATO's analysis, officials said, was not a comprehensive study. Instead, it was an initial review that some officials called a 'SWAG'—military parlance for a 'scientific wild-ass guess.'" [4]

Use

SWAG is used to describe an estimate derived from a combination of factors including past experience, general impressions, and heuristic or approximate calculations rather than an exhaustive search, proof, or rigorous calculation. The SWAG is an educated guess but is not regarded as the best or most accurate estimate. [2] The SWAG is not computed or proven rigorously, but the proponent asserts his or her own judgement suffices to rationalize the estimate; and it may, in time, be viable to produce a rigorous forecast of increased precision. [6]

Various other backronyms of SWAG have been published, including "sophisticated wild-ass guess", "Silly Wild-Ass Guess", "Semi-Wild-Ass Guess", "Stupid Wild-Ass Guess", and "Scientific Wildly Aimed Guess". [7] "Scientific" implies that the "guess" can be justified if necessary or cost-effective. [3] A guess of lesser worth may be called the "Wild-Ass Guess" or "WAG". A slightly better estimate may be called "Back of the Envelope" (BOTE). [8]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Vietnam War</span> Cold War conflict in Southeast Asia from 1955 to 1975

The Vietnam War was a conflict in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975. It was the second of the Indochina Wars and a major conflict of the Cold War. While the war was officially fought between North Vietnam and South Vietnam, the north was supported by the Soviet Union, China, and other countries in the Eastern Bloc, while the south was supported by the US and anti-communist allies. This made the conflict a proxy war between the US and Soviet Union. Direct US military involvement lasted from 1965 until its withdrawal in 1973. The fighting spilled over into the Laotian and Cambodian civil wars, which ended with all three countries becoming communist in 1975.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Viet Cong</span> Revolutionary organization active in South Vietnam and Cambodia from 1960 to 1977

The Viet Cong was an epithet and umbrella term to refer to the communist-driven armed movement and united front organization in South Vietnam. Formally organized as and led by the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam and nominally conducted military operations under the name of the Liberation Army of South Vietnam (LASV), the movement fought under the direction of North Vietnam against the South Vietnamese and United States governments during the Vietnam War. The organization had both guerrilla and regular army units, as well as a network of cadres who organized and mobilized peasants in the territory the Viet Cong controlled. During the war, communist fighters and some anti-war activists claimed that the Viet Cong was an insurgency indigenous to the South that represented the legitimate rights of people in South Vietnam, while the U.S. and South Vietnamese governments portrayed the group as a tool of North Vietnam. It was later conceded by the modern Vietnamese communist leadership that the movement was actually under the North Vietnamese political and military leadership, aiming to unify Vietnam under a single banner.

Scientism is the belief that science and the scientific method are the best or only way to render truth about the world and reality.

A Fermi problem, also known as an order-of-magnitude problem, is an estimation problem in physics or engineering education, designed to teach dimensional analysis or approximation of extreme scientific calculations. Fermi problems are usually back-of-the-envelope calculations. The estimation technique is named after physicist Enrico Fermi as he was known for his ability to make good approximate calculations with little or no actual data. Fermi problems typically involve making justified guesses about quantities and their variance or lower and upper bounds. In some cases, order-of-magnitude estimates can also be derived using dimensional analysis.

Swag, SWAG, or Swagg may refer to:

A back-of-the-envelope calculation is a rough calculation, typically jotted down on any available scrap of paper such as an envelope. It is more than a guess but less than an accurate calculation or mathematical proof. The defining characteristic of back-of-the-envelope calculations is the use of simplified assumptions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses</span> Military tactic

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD, pronounced ), also known in the United States as "Wild Weasel" and (initially) "Iron Hand" operations, are military actions to suppress enemy surface-based air defenses, including not only surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) but also interrelated systems such as early-warning radar and command, control and communication (C3) functions, while also marking other targets to be destroyed by an air strike. Suppression can be accomplished both by physically destroying the systems or by disrupting and deceiving them through electronic warfare. In modern warfare, SEAD missions can constitute as much as 30% of all sorties launched in the first week of combat and continue at a reduced rate through the rest of a campaign. One quarter of American combat sorties in recent conflicts have been SEAD missions. Despite generally being associated with aircraft, SEAD missions may be performed using any means, including through actions by ground forces.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Battle of Ia Drang</span> 1965 battle of the Vietnam War

The Battle of Ia Drang was the first major battle between the United States Army and the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN), as part of the Pleiku campaign conducted early in the Vietnam War, at the eastern foot of the Chu Pong Massif in the central highlands of Vietnam, in 1965. It is notable for being the first large scale helicopter air assault and also the first use of Boeing B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers in a tactical support role. Ia Drang set the blueprint for the Vietnam War with the Americans relying on air mobility, artillery fire and close air support, while the PAVN neutralized that firepower by quickly engaging American forces at very close range.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Acronym</span> Abbreviation consisting of initial letters of a phrase

An acronym is a type of abbreviation consisting of a phrase whose only pronounced elements are the initial letters or initial sounds of words inside that phrase. Acronyms are often spelled with the initial letter of each word in all caps with no punctuation.

Honky is a racial slur used to refer to white people, predominantly heard in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Battle of Hamburger Hill</span> Part of the Vietnam War (1969)

The Battle of Hamburger Hill was fought by US Army and Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) forces against People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) forces during Operation Apache Snow of the Vietnam War. Though the heavily-fortified Hill 937, a ridge of the mountain Dong Ap Bia in central Vietnam near its western border with Laos, had little strategic value, US command ordered its capture by a frontal assault, only to abandon it soon thereafter. The action caused a controversy among both the US armed services and the public back home, and marked a turning point in the U.S. involvement.

Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934 or 1935. It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun. A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States in the Vietnam War</span>

The involvement of the United States in the Vietnam War began in the 1950s and greatly escalated in 1965 until its withdrawal in 1973. The U.S. military presence in Vietnam peaked in April 1969, with 543,000 military personnel stationed in the country. By the end of the U.S. involvement, more than 3.1 million Americans had been stationed in Vietnam, and 58,279 had been killed.

"Stay the course" is a phrase used in the context of a war or battle meaning to pursue a goal regardless of any obstacles or criticism. The modern usage of this term was popularized by United States presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan.

Digger slang, also known as ANZAC slang or Australian military slang, is Australian English slang as employed by the various Australian armed forces throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. There have been four major sources of the slang: the First World War, the Second World War, the Korean War and the Vietnam War. The name Digger slang derives from the cultural stereotype of the Digger in the First World War. Graham Seal AM, Professor of Folklore at Curtin University of Technology, calls the slang Diggerese. It is a combination of an occupational jargon and an in-group argot.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Joint warfare in South Vietnam, 1963–1969</span> Part of the Vietnam War

During the Cold War in the 1960s, the United States and South Vietnam began a period of gradual escalation and direct intervention referred to as the "Americanization" of joint warfare in South Vietnam during the Vietnam War. At the start of the decade, United States aid to South Vietnam consisted largely of supplies with approximately 900 military observers and trainers. After the assassination of both Ngo Dinh Diem and John F. Kennedy close to the end of 1963 and Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 and amid continuing political instability in the South, the Lyndon Johnson Administration made a policy commitment to safeguard the South Vietnamese regime directly. The American military forces and other anti-communist SEATO countries increased their support, sending large scale combat forces into South Vietnam; at its height in 1969, slightly more than 400,000 American troops were deployed. The People's Army of Vietnam and the allied Viet Cong fought back, keeping to countryside strongholds while the anti-communist allied forces tended to control the cities. The most notable conflict of this era was the 1968 Tet Offensive, a widespread campaign by the communist forces to attack across all of South Vietnam; while the offensive was largely repelled, it was a strategic success in seeding doubt as to the long-term viability of the South Vietnamese state. This phase of the war lasted until the election of Richard Nixon and the change of U.S. policy to Vietnamization, or ending the direct involvement and phased withdrawal of U.S. combat troops and giving the main combat role back to the South Vietnamese military.

Heuristics is the process by which humans use mental shortcuts to arrive at decisions. Heuristics are simple strategies that humans, animals, organizations, and even machines use to quickly form judgments, make decisions, and find solutions to complex problems. Often this involves focusing on the most relevant aspects of a problem or situation to formulate a solution. While heuristic processes are used to find the answers and solutions that are most likely to work or be correct, they are not always right or the most accurate. Judgments and decisions based on heuristics are simply good enough to satisfy a pressing need in situations of uncertainty, where information is incomplete. In that sense they can differ from answers given by logic and probability.

References

  1. 1 2 Lasky, Melvin J. (2005). The Language of Journalism: Profanity, obscenity & the media. Vol. 2. Transaction Publishers. p. 106. ISBN   0765802201.
  2. 1 2 3 Safire, William (2004). No Uncertain Terms: More Writing from the Popular "On Language" Column in The New York Times Magazine. Simon and Schuster. pp. 95–96. ISBN   0743258126.
  3. 1 2 "Acronym Finder" . Retrieved July 21, 2012.
  4. 1 2 3 Safire, William (April 25, 1999). "The Way We Live Now: 4-25-99 - On Language; Eye Roller". The New York Times Magazine.
  5. ↑ Harris, John F. (April 1, 1999). "Clinton Saw No Alternative to Airstrikes". Washington Post. p. A1.
  6. ↑ "searchsoftwarequality.techtarget.com" . Retrieved July 21, 2012.
  7. ↑ Black, Ron (2005). The Complete Idiot's Guide To Project Management With Microsoft Project 2003. Penguin. p. 100. ISBN   1592573088.
  8. ↑ Tracy, John A.; Tracy, Tage (2011). Cash Flow For Dummies. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 164–165. ISBN   978-1118018507.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.