Sri Lanka sovereign default

Last updated
Economy of Sri Lanka - Sovereign debt crisis
April 2022 on going
Statistics
GDP 80.7 billion (2020) [1]
GDP growth
-3.6% 2020 [1]
GDP per capita
3,682 (2020) [1]
External
$54.3bn with private [2]
Public finances
-12.8 % (2021 est) [2]
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

Sri Lanka declared the country was suspending payment on most foreign debt from April 12, 2022, kindling the Indian Ocean island's first sovereign default event and ending an unblemished record of repaying external debt despite experiencing milder currency crises in the past. [3] [4] By April Sri Lanka was suffering the worst monetary crisis in its history with a steeply falling rupee, high inflation and forex shortages which triggered shortfalls of fuel, power and medicine. Widespread public protests led to a political crisis. In March, the International Monetary Fund released a report saying publicly for the first time that the country's debt was unsustainable and required re-structuring. Authorities had advertised for financial and legal advisors to help negotiate with creditors shortly before the suspension was announced. [2] [5]

Contents

Sri Lanka bonds spiked in 2022
Inverted yield curve in the first half of 2022
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15 year bonds
10 year bonds
5 year bonds
1 year bonds
6 month bonds Sri Lanka bonds.webp
Sri Lanka bonds spiked in 2022
Inverted yield curve in the first half of 2022
  15 year bonds
  10 year bonds
  5 year bonds
  1 year bonds
  6 month bonds

Overview

Sri Lanka has seen external instability from around late 2014 suffering two currency crises and low growth with the rupee falling from 131 to 182 to the US dollar by 2018. [6] Foreign debt rose from 30% of gross domestic product in 2014 to 41.3% in 2019 while total debt went up from 76% to 86% as growth slowed amid [7] Sovereign bond borrowings also expanded. In December 2019, Sri Lanka's newly elected government cut taxes in a fiscal stimulus, sharply lowering state revenues and followed up in the first quarter of 2020 with policy rate cuts which were enforced by large scale money printing, unleashing unprecedented volumes of liquidity in to money markets. [8] The Coronavirus pandemic hit the country and a lockdown started in March 2020. Though Sri Lanka drew praise for its handling of the pandemic and swift vaccination of the population, money printing worsened with unusually large central bank financing of the government triggering the worst balance of payments crisis in the country's history. [9] Then central bank Governor W D Lakshman was said to have been following Modern Monetary Theory. Sri Lanka's sovereign rating was progressively downgraded and the country was locked out of capital markets and was unable to roll-over maturing sovereign bonds. [10] [11]

The IMF in its 2021 Article IV Consultations report concluded that Sri Lanka's public debt was unsustainable. "The country has started experiencing a combined debt and BoP crisis...", the report asid. "Staff assesses that Sri Lanka's public debt is unsustainable." The report warned that continued central bank financing will worsen inflation and could lead to an external trade collapse and even higher inflation. "[T]he country could experience significant contractions in imports and private credit growth, or monetary instability in case of further central bank financing of fiscal deficits. And continued reliance on central bank financing would eventually lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations." [12] An attempt to float the currency in March 2022 did not succeed and forex shortages continued to persist with the rupee falling from 202 to below to 300 the dollar. Forex shortages had triggered power, fuel and medicine shortages leading to widespread protests. On April 3 the Cabinet of ministers resigned. Sri Lanka's newly appointed Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe sharply raised policy rates on April 8 allowing interest rates to go up and reduce money printing. [13] By end March foreign reserves were down to US$1.9bn and there were concerns over their actual usability since about US$1.5bn which had come from a Renminbi swap from China. On April 12, the Finance Ministry announced a halt to payments of most foreign debt, ahead of restructuring. [3] After the technical agreement on a IMF programme (staff-level agreement), the Paris Club invited major creditors to form an official creditor committee on September 2, 2022. [14] On January 25, 2023, the Creditor committee formed by Paris Club, India and Hungary provided its financing assurances to the IMF to allow for the programme to be formally approved by the IMF Board. [15] On February 3, 2023, China provided Sri Lanka with an offer of extending its debt and requested other major debt leaders to do the same. [16]

Chronology

Restructuring process

The re-structuring would apply to bilateral and multilateral debt and sovereign bond holders. Domestically sold dollar denominated bonds would be exempt. [26] Until a restructuring proposal can be presented arrears would be capitalized and a new debt instrument issued at the same interest rate. Creditors could opt to receive suspended payments in Sri Lanka rupees. [3]

As for the official bilateral creditors, a committee formed by the Paris Club, India and Hungary was formed. Other bilaterals negotiate bilaterally with Sri Lanka.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economy of Sri Lanka</span>

The mixed economy of Sri Lanka was worth $84 billion by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 and $296.959 billion by purchasing power parity (PPP). The country had experienced an annual growth of 6.4 percent from 2003 to 2012, well above its regional peers. This growth was driven by the growth of non-tradable sectors, which the World Bank warned to be both unsustainable and unequitable. Growth has slowed since then. In 2019 with an income per capita of 13,620 PPP Dollars or 3,852 (2019) nominal US dollars, Sri Lanka was re-classified as a lower middle income nation with the population around 22 million (2021) by the World Bank from a previous upper middle income status.

A country's gross external debt is the liabilities that are owed to nonresidents by residents. The debtors can be governments, corporations or citizens. External debt may be denominated in domestic or foreign currency. It includes amounts owed to private commercial banks, foreign governments, or international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

The debt of developing countries usually refers to the external debt incurred by governments of developing countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government debt</span> Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

A country's gross government debt is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paris Club</span> International organization

Paris Club is a group of major creditor countries aiming to provide a sustainable way to tackle debt problems in debtor countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Latin American debt crisis</span> Financial crisis during the 1970s and 1980s

The Latin American debt crisis was a financial crisis that originated in the early 1980s, often known as La Década Perdida, when Latin American countries reached a point where their foreign debt exceeded their earning power, and they could not repay it.

Global debt refers to the total amount of money owed by all sectors, including governments, businesses, and households worldwide.

A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full when due. Cessation of due payments may either be accompanied by that government's formal declaration that it will not pay its debts (repudiation), or it may be unannounced. A credit rating agency will take into account in its gradings capital, interest, extraneous and procedural defaults, and failures to abide by the terms of bonds or other debt instruments.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ajith Cabraal</span> Sri Lankan account and former Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (born 1954)

Ajith Nivard Cabraal is a Sri Lankan accountant and politician who was also the 16th Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He is also the former State Minister of Finance, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms and a national list member of parliament since 12 August 2020. He served as the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, holding the post from 1 July 2006 until his resignation on 9 January 2015. He again became the Governor of Central Bank of Sri Lanka in September 2021, replacing W. D. Lakshman, and resigned again in April 2022.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greek government-debt crisis timeline</span>

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Punchi Banda Jayasundara is a Sri Lankan economist. He was the former Secretary to the President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and former Secretary of the Treasury on multiple occasions.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sri Lankan economic crisis (2019–present)</span> Ongoing economic crisis in Sri Lanka

The Sri Lankan economic crisis is an ongoing crisis in Sri Lanka that started in 2019. It is the country's worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948. It has led to unprecedented levels of inflation, near-depletion of foreign exchange reserves, shortages of medical supplies, and an increase in prices of basic commodities. The crisis is said to have begun due to multiple compounding factors like tax cuts, money creation, a nationwide policy to shift to organic or biological farming, the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter bombings, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka. The subsequent economic hardships resulted in the 2022 Sri Lankan protests. Sri Lanka received a lifeline in the form of an Indian line of credit amounting to $4 billion. This substantial credit infusion served to cover the costs of importing essential goods and fuel. As a result, the foreign currency reserves of debt-ridden Sri Lanka experienced a notable improvement, reaching $2.69 billion.

P. Nandalal Weerasinghe is a Sri Lankan economist and banker who is also currently serving as the 17th Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. A career officer in the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, serving as its chief economist and senior deputy governor. He has also served as an alternative executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC representing the countries such as Sri Lanka, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh from January 2010 to August 2012. He has also previously acted as a chairman of the monetary policy committee and foreign reserve management committee of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pakistani economic crisis (2022–present)</span> 2022-2024 economic crisis in Pakistan

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sri Lanka and the International Monetary Fund</span>

Sri Lanka joined the International Monetary Fund on August 29, 1950. Since June 1965, Sri Lanka has taken 16 loans from the IMF, with a total value of 3,586,000,000 SDR's. The most recent of these loans was agreed to in June 2016, with an agreed total of 1,070,780 SDR's, and 715,230,000 SDR's being withdrawn. Of this total, 715,230,000 SDR's remain outstanding. Notwithstanding the receipt of substantial soft loans from China, the island nation of Sri Lanka finds itself ensnared in a foreign currency crisis, prompting concerns among experts that it may be driven towards default. The current year places a heavy burden on Sri Lanka, with debt repayments amounting to approximately $4.5 billion, commencing with an initial payment of $500 million towards an international sovereign bond. It is worth noting that Sri Lanka holds a position of significant importance in China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

References

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