Tanzi effect

Last updated
Vito Tanzi (2019). Professor Vito Tanzi 2019.jpg
Vito Tanzi (2019).

The Tanzi effect is an economic situation involving a period of high inflation in a country which results in a decline in the volume of tax collection and a deterioration of real tax proceeds being collected by the government of that country. This is due to the time elapsed between the moment the taxable event occurs and the collection of the tax becomes effective. The effect was noticed by economists since the 1920s but it was Italian economist Vito Tanzi that explained the actual causes in a 1977 paper. [1]

Contents

Previous hypothesis

The effect has been known since the ending period after World War I. Italian economist Costantino Bresciani Turroni described a similar phenomenon for the German hyperinflation. Previous to the Tanzi paper, a common hypothesis was that the tax administration had somehow become less efficient than before the previous of high inflation. Another hypothesis was that in a period of high inflation people increase their rate of tax evasion. A more sophisticated version of this second hypothesis was that, as inflation rises, banking intermediation shrinks and credit becomes more scarce. [2] In Argentina, the effect is known as the Olivera-Tanzi effect in recognition of Julio Olivera  [ es ], who noticed the association between the fall in tax revenue and high inflation. In Tanzi's words "Mr. Olivera had reported the fall but had not provided an explanation for it; instead he had focused on its implications for macroeconomic developments". [2]

Causes

The legal obligation to pay a tax (tax liability) takes place when certain events occur. For example, the obligation to pay a tax on income takes place when income is earned. The obligation to pay a tax on sales occurs when an item subject to the sales tax is sold. The obligation to pay a tax on imports occurs when goods cross the frontier. All these taxable events establish a claim by the government from taxpayers and an obligation by the taxpayers with the government. However, for practical or administrative reasons, the actual tax payments were not being made immediately at the time the taxable event occurred, but some time later. In some cases, much later. For example, taxes on this year's income may not be due until next year. Taxes due on the sale of goods and services may not be paid to the government, by the seller of the goods who withholds the taxes from the consumers (say a shop), until sometime later perhaps 30 or 60 days later. These delays in payment (these collection lags) have little importance when there is no inflation or when the rate of inflation is low. However, the higher the rate of inflation becomes, the lower the real value of the payment received by the government is compared with the value it would have if it had been made immediately after the taxable event; that is, without any delay. Thus, the collection lag becomes a fundamental variable in the determination of real tax revenue in situations of high inflation. [2] When inflation is very high, and a country tries to finance public spending by printing more money, the act of printing more money, by increasing the rate of inflation, could reduce tax revenue by more than the real value of the income from inflationary finance (from the printing of money). [2]

Consequences

A collection lag of two months, which was normal for the payment of sales taxes such as the value-added tax, combined with a monthly rate of inflation of 10%, would lead to a reduction in real tax revenue of about 20%. A monthly inflation rate of 20% would lead to a fall in real tax revenue of about 40%.

Examples

Examples of the Tanzi effect includes all countries with have experienced hyperinflation or very high inflation. Chile under Salvador Allende, Argentina in 1975.

Solution

Although efforts in reducing the collection lag can help, controlling the inflation is the recommended policy. A decrease in inflation will lead to an increase in tax revenue. For example, in 1991, Argentina introduced the convertibility plan that tied the peso to the dollar, abruptly reducing the rate of inflation. The great deceleration in the rate of inflation led to a large increase in real tax revenue. [2] Some countries such as Brazil and Chile went as far as indexing the tax liability for the rate of inflation so as to reduce or neutralize the impact of the tax collection lag on tax revenue. [2]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hyperinflation</span> Rapidly accelerating inflation

In economics, hyperinflation is a very high and typically accelerating inflation. It quickly erodes the real value of the local currency, as the prices of all goods increase. This causes people to minimize their holdings in that currency as they usually switch to more stable foreign currencies. Effective capital controls and currency substitution ("dollarization") are the orthodox solutions to ending short-term hyperinflation; however there are significant social and economic costs to these policies. Ineffective implementations of these solutions often exacerbate the situation. Many governments choose to attempt to solve structural issues without resorting to those solutions, with the goal of bringing inflation down slowly while minimizing social costs of further economic shocks.

A tax is a mandatory financial charge or levy imposed on a taxpayer by a governmental organization to support government spending and public expenditures collectively or to regulate and reduce negative externalities. Tax compliance refers to policy actions and individual behavior aimed at ensuring that taxpayers are paying the right amount of tax at the right time and securing the correct tax allowances and tax relief. The first known taxation occurred in Ancient Egypt around 3000–2800 BC. Taxes consist of direct or indirect taxes and may be paid in money or as labor equivalent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Inflation</span> Devaluation of currency over a period of time

In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fiscal policy</span> Use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a countrys economy

In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.

Supply-side economics is a macroeconomic theory postulating that economic growth can be most effectively fostered by lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade. According to supply-side economics theory, consumers will benefit from greater supply of goods and services at lower prices, and employment will increase. Supply-side fiscal policies are designed to increase aggregate supply, as opposed to aggregate demand, thereby expanding output and employment while lowering prices. Such policies are of several general varieties:

  1. Investments in human capital, such as education, healthcare, and encouraging the transfer of technologies and business processes, to improve productivity. Encouraging globalized free trade via containerization is a major recent example.
  2. Tax reduction, to provide incentives to work, invest and take risks. Lowering income tax rates and eliminating or lowering tariffs are examples of such policies.
  3. Investments in new capital equipment and research and development (R&D), to further improve productivity. Allowing businesses to depreciate capital equipment more rapidly gives them an immediate financial incentive to invest in such equipment.
  4. Reduction in government regulations, to encourage business formation and expansion.
<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government budget balance</span> Difference between revenues and spending

The government budget balance, also referred to as the general government balance, public budget balance, or public fiscal balance, is the difference between government revenues and spending. For a government that uses accrual accounting the budget balance is calculated using only spending on current operations, with expenditure on new capital assets excluded. A positive balance is called a government budget surplus, and a negative balance is a government budget deficit. A government budget presents the government's proposed revenues and spending for a financial year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1998–2002 Argentine great depression</span> Economic disaster

The 1998–2002 Argentine great depression was an economic depression in Argentina, which began in the third quarter of 1998 and lasted until the second quarter of 2002. It followed fifteen years of stagnation and a brief period of free-market reforms. The depression, which began after the Russian and Brazilian financial crises, caused widespread unemployment, riots, the fall of the government, a default on the country's foreign debt, the rise of alternative currencies and the end of the peso's fixed exchange rate to the US dollar. The economy shrank by 28 per cent from 1998 to 2002. In terms of income, over 50 per cent of Argentines lived below the official poverty line and 25 per cent were indigent ; seven out of ten Argentine children were poor at the depth of the crisis in 2002.

Indexation is a technique to adjust income payments by means of a price index, in order to maintain the purchasing power of the public after inflation, while deindexation is the unwinding of indexation. It is often used to make sure regular payments, such as pension payments keep pace with inflation, so that they have the same value in real terms over time.

The Convertibility plan was a plan by the Argentine Currency Board that pegged the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar between 1991 and 2002 in an attempt to eliminate hyperinflation and stimulate economic growth. While it initially met with considerable success, the board's actions ultimately failed. The peso was only pegged to the dollar until 2002.

Chronic inflation is an economic phenomenon occurring when a country experiences high inflation for a prolonged period due to continual increases in the money supply among other things. In countries with chronic inflation, inflation expectations become 'built-in', and it becomes extremely difficult to reduce the inflation rate because the process of reducing inflation by, for example, slowing down the growth rate of the money supply, will often lead to high unemployment until inflationary expectations have adjusted to the new situation.

Inflation accounting comprises a range of accounting models designed to correct problems arising from historical cost accounting in the presence of high inflation and hyperinflation. For example, in countries experiencing hyperinflation the International Accounting Standards Board requires corporations to implement financial capital maintenance in units of constant purchasing power in terms of the monthly published Consumer Price Index. This does not result in capital maintenance in units of constant purchasing power since that can only be achieved in terms of a daily index.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic</span> Occurrence of hyperinflation in early 20th century Germany

Hyperinflation affected the German Papiermark, the currency of the Weimar Republic, between 1921 and 1923, primarily in 1923. The German currency had seen significant inflation during the First World War due to the way in which the German government funded its war effort through borrowing, with debts of 156 billion marks by 1918. This national debt was substantially increased by 50 billion marks of reparations payable in cash and in-kind under the May 1921 London Schedule of Payments agreed after the Versailles treaty.

Due to the absence of the tax code in Argentina, the tax regulation takes place in accordance with separate laws, which, in turn, are supplemented by provisions of normative acts adopted by the executive authorities. The powers of the executive authority include levying a tax on profits, property and added value throughout the national territory. In Argentina, the tax policy is implemented by the Federal Administration of Public Revenue, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Economy. The Federal Administration of Public Revenues (AFIP) is an independent service, which includes: the General Tax Administration, the General Customs Office and the General Directorate for Social Security. AFIP establishes the relevant legal norms for the calculation, payment and administration of taxes:

Constant purchasing power accounting (CPPA) is an accounting model that is an alternative to model historical cost accounting under high inflation and hyper-inflationary environments. It has been approved for use by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Under this IFRS and US GAAP authorized system, financial capital maintenance is always measured in units of constant purchasing power (CPP) in terms of a Daily CPI during low inflation, high inflation, hyperinflation and deflation; i.e., during all possible economic environments. During all economic environments it can also be measured in a monetized daily indexed unit of account or in terms of a daily relatively stable foreign currency parallel rate, particularly during hyperinflation when a government refuses to publish CPI data.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fiat money</span> Currency not backed by any commodity

Fiat money is a type of government issued currency that is not backed by a precious metal, such as gold or silver, nor by any other tangible asset or commodity. Fiat currency is typically designated by the issuing government to be legal tender, and is authorized by government regulation. Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the major currencies in the world are fiat money.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hyperinflation in Brazil</span>

Hyperinflation in Brazil occurred between the first three months of 1990. The monthly inflation rates between January and March 1990 were 71.9%, 71.7% and 81.3% respectively. As accepted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), hyperinflation is defined as a period of time in which the average price level of goods and services rise by more than 50% a month.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glossary of economics</span>

This glossary of economics is a list of definitions containing terms and concepts used in economics, its sub-disciplines, and related fields.

A distributional effect is the effect of the redistribution of the final gains and costs derived from the direct gains and cost allocations of a project. A project has a direct-profit redistribution effect and a direct-cost redistribution effect. But whether it is profit or cost, the redistribution effect can be expressed as a benefit to a group of people or department or region, and the loss to another party. In theory, the indirect profit and indirect costs can also be derived from the redistribution effect, and valued.

The BONEX Plan was a forced conversion of bank time deposits to Treasury bonds performed by the Argentine government in January 1990.

References

  1. Tanzi, Vito, "Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue", Staff Papers, vol. 24, march 1977, IMF, 1977, pp. 154-167.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Tanzi, Vito (2007). Argentina: An Economic Chronicle. How one of the richest countries in the world lost its wealth. Jorge Pinto Books. p. 34. ISBN   978-0979557606.

Bibliography