Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

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Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is one of such non-conventional oceanographic parameters influencing the tropical cyclone intensity. [1] [2] The relationship between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and cyclone intensity has been long studied in statistical intensity prediction schemes such as the National Hurricane Center Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) [3] [4] and Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS). [5] STIPS is run at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California, and is provided to Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) to make cyclone intensity forecasts in the western North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Oceans. In most of the cyclone models, SST is the only oceanographic parameter representing heat exchange. However, cyclones have long been known to interact with the deeper layers of ocean rather than sea surface alone. [6] Using a coupled ocean atmospheric model, Mao et al., [7] concluded that the rate of intensification and final intensity of cyclone were sensitive to the initial spatial distribution of the mixed layer rather than to SST alone. Similarly, Namias and Canyan [8] observed patterns of lower atmospheric anomalies being more consistent with the upper ocean thermal structure variability than SST.  

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References

  1. ↑ Mainelli, Michelle; DeMaria, Mark; Shay, Lynn K.; Goni, Gustavo (2008-02-01). "Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes". Weather and Forecasting. 23 (1): 3–16. Bibcode:2008WtFor..23....3M. doi: 10.1175/2007WAF2006111.1 . ISSN   0882-8156.
  2. ↑ Shay, Lynn K.; Brewster, Jodi K. (2010-06-01). "Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting". Monthly Weather Review. 138 (6): 2110–2131. Bibcode:2010MWRv..138.2110S. doi:10.1175/2010MWR3189.1. ISSN   0027-0644. S2CID   17361911.
  3. ↑ DeMaria, Mark; Kaplan, John (1994-06-01). "A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin". Weather and Forecasting. 9 (2): 209–220. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0209:ASHIPS>2.0.CO;2 . ISSN   0882-8156.
  4. ↑ DeMaria, Mark; Mainelli, Michelle; Shay, Lynn K.; Knaff, John A.; Kaplan, John (2005-08-01). "Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)". Weather and Forecasting. 20 (4): 531–543. Bibcode:2005WtFor..20..531D. doi: 10.1175/WAF862.1 . ISSN   0882-8156.
  5. ↑ Knaff, John A.; Sampson, Charles R.; DeMaria, Mark (2005-08-01). "An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific". Weather and Forecasting. 20 (4): 688–699. Bibcode:2005WtFor..20..688K. doi: 10.1175/waf863.1 . ISSN   1520-0434. S2CID   10109308.
  6. ↑ Emanuel, Kerry A. (1986-03-01). "An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 43 (6): 585–605. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2 . ISSN   0022-4928.
  7. ↑ Mao, Qi Verfasser (2000). Influence of large-scale initial oceanic mixed layer depth on tropical cyclones. OCLC   1074227873.{{cite book}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  8. ↑ Namias, J.; Cayan, D. R. (1981-11-20). "Large-Scale Air-Sea Interactions and Short-Period Climatic Fluctuatioins". Science. 214 (4523): 869–876. Bibcode:1981Sci...214..869N. doi:10.1126/science.214.4523.869. ISSN   0036-8075. PMID   17782430. S2CID   10522169.
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