In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster.
In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose. The employment cost index is also used for wages in the United States.
A consumer confidence index (CCI) is an economic indicator published by various organizations in several countries.
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the oldest, and the largest, supply management association in the world. Founded in 1915, the U.S.-based not-for-profit educational association serves professionals and organizations with a keen interest in supply management, providing them education, training, qualifications, publications, information, and research.
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, consumer price index, Inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and money supply changes.
Consumer spending is the total money spent on final goods and services by individuals and households.
Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. If the consumer has confidence in the immediate and near future economy and his/her personal finance, then the consumer will spend more than save.
Market sentiment, also known as investor attention, is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events. If investors expect upward price movement in the stock market, the sentiment is said to be bullish. On the contrary, if the market sentiment is bearish, most investors expect downward price movement. Market participants who maintain a static sentiment, regardless of market conditions, are described as permabulls and permabears respectively. Market sentiment is usually considered as a contrarian indicator: what most people expect is a good thing to bet against. Market sentiment is used because it is believed to be a good predictor of market moves, especially when it is more extreme. Very bearish sentiment is usually followed by the market going up more than normal, and vice versa. A bull market refers to a sustained period of either realized or expected price rises, whereas a bear market is used to describe when an index or stock has fallen 20% or more from a recent high for a sustained length of time.
Steve Odland is an American businessman. He is the President and CEO of The Conference Board. He also is the former chairman and CEO of Office Depot, Inc. and AutoZone, Inc., and the former president and CEO of Tops Markets and the Committee for Economic Development.
The Conference Board, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit business membership and research group organization. It counts over 1,000 public and private corporations and other organizations as members, encompassing 60 countries. The Conference Board convenes conferences and peer-learning groups, conducts economic and business management research, and publishes several widely tracked economic indicators.
Robert James Shiller is an American economist, academic, and author. As of 2022, he served as a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was vice president of the American Economic Association in 2005, its president-elect for 2016, and president of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006–2007. He is also the co‑founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.
The Canadian Index of Consumer Confidence (ICC) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. In Canada consumer confidence is issued monthly by The Conference Board of Canada, an independent research organization, and is based telephone survey of 2,000 households.
Consumer confidence is a key driver of economic growth and is widely considered a leading economic indicator of household spending on consumption. Consumers tend to increase consumption when they feel confident about the current and future economic situation of the country and their own financial conditions. In economies such as India and the US, where personal consumption accounts for more than 60% and 70% of gross domestic product respectively, consumer confidence has a particularly significant impact on the economy. Measuring it can provide critical insight into the economy's growth prospects. Consumer sentiment indices are essential tools used by global investors and will be an immense aid to individual and institutional investors in India.
George Katona was a Hungarian-born American psychologist who was one of the first to advocate a rapprochement between economics and psychology.
The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research (ISR) is the largest academic social research and survey organization in the world, established in 1949. ISR includes more than 300 scientists from a variety of academic disciplines – including political science, psychology, sociology, economics, demography, history, anthropology, and statistics. The institute is a unit that houses five separate but interdependent centers which conduct research and maintain data archives. In 2021, Kathleen Cagney became the first woman in its history to be named Director of the institute.
Abenomics refers to the economic policies implemented by the Government of Japan led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since the December 2012 general election. They are named after Shinzō Abe, who served a second stint as Prime Minister of Japan from 2012 to 2020. Abe was the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. After Abe resigned in September 2020, his successor, Yoshihide Suga, has stated that his premiership will focus on continuing the policies and goals of the Abe administration, including the Abenomics suite of economic policies.
Med Jones is an American economist. He is the president of International Institute of Management, a U.S. based research organization. His work at the institute focuses on economic, investment, and business strategies.
Morning Consult is a business intelligence company established in 2014. It was named one of the fastest growing technology companies in North America by Deloitte in both 2018 and 2019 and was valued at more than one billion dollars in June 2021. The company specializes in online survey research technology and has offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, Chicago, and San Francisco.
Jason Goepfert is an American researcher and columnist focused on the development of behavioral finance. Prior to founding Sundial Capital Research, he was the manager of back office operations for Deephaven Capital Management, a Minnesota-based hedge fund, and Wells Fargo's online brokerage unit.
Richard T. Curtin is an American economist, academic and researcher. He is a Research Professor and has been the Director of Consumer Sentiment Surveys at University of Michigan since 1976.
