Warn-on-Forecast

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Warn-on-Forecast (WoF or WoFS) is an ongoing research project being conducted by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, designed to increase the lead time for tornado warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and flash flood warnings. [1] [2] [3] [4]

Contents

Timeline

The Warn-on-Forecast run at 17z on May 21, 2024, showing a high probability of low-level updraft helicity near Adair County three hours before the Greenfield tornado formed WOFS21May17zAdair.png
The Warn-on-Forecast run at 17z on May 21, 2024, showing a high probability of low-level updraft helicity near Adair County three hours before the Greenfield tornado formed

The research project was started in 2016 in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. [5]

On May 16, 2017, a deadly EF2 tornado struck Elk City, Oklahoma. Before the tornado formed, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma (NWS Norman) office saw storms form in Texas. NSSL, who works in the same building as NWS Norman, had a meteorologist embedded with the NWS Norman meteorologists. The Warn-on-Forecast system, which was being monitored by the NSSL meteorologist, noted a high chance of a tornado occurring in the Elk City area well before the tornado occurred. As a result, the National Weather Service issued a Significant Weather Advisory which stated, “Severe weather is likely with these storms as they move into Oklahoma and there is a high probability that tornado warnings will be issued.” Following the advisory being issued, the Elk City Emergency Manager, Lonnie Risenhoover, activated the tornado sirens to warn residents of Elk City nearly 30 minutes before the tornado struck. NWS Norman subsequently issued a tornado warning for Elk City, which was in place 28 minutes before the tornado struck. This was the first time WoFS influenced real time tornado warnings from the National Weather Service. [6]

In May 2018, tests were conducted alongside meteorologists at the NWS Norman office. [5]

On May 21, 2024, a violent EF4 tornado struck the city of Greenfield, Iowa. A few weeks after the tornado, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released details about an experimental warning system which was tested before and during the tornado. This new warning system, named Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), was created by the Hazardous Weather Testbed housed in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the experiment and test, the WoFS gave a high indication of “near-ground rotation” in and around the area of Greenfield, Iowa between 2-4 p.m. According to the press release, 75-minutes later, the violent EF4 tornado touched down. Scientists with the National Severe Storms Laboratory were able to give local National Weather Service forecasters a 75-minute lead time for the tornado. [7] [8]

Related Research Articles

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A tornado warning is a public warning that is issued by weather forecasting agencies to an area in the direct path of a tornado, or a severe thunderstorm capable of producing one, and advises individuals in that area to take cover. Modern weather surveillance technology such as Doppler weather radar can detect rotation in a thunderstorm, allowing for early warning before a tornado develops. They are also commonly issued based on reported visual sighting of a tornado, funnel cloud, or wall cloud, typically from weather spotters or the public, but also law enforcement or local emergency management. When radar is unavailable or insufficient, such ground truth is crucial. In particular, a tornado can develop in a gap of radar coverage, of which there are several known in the United States.

These are some notable tornadoes, tornado outbreaks, and tornado outbreak sequences that have occurred around the globe.

  1. Exact death and injury counts are not possible; especially for large events and events before 1955.
  2. Prior to 1950 in the United States, only significant tornadoes are listed for the number of tornadoes in outbreaks.
  3. Due to increasing detection, particularly in the U.S., numbers of counted tornadoes have increased markedly in recent decades although the number of actual tornadoes and counted significant tornadoes has not. In older events, the number of tornadoes officially counted is likely underestimated.
<span class="mw-page-title-main">Storm Prediction Center</span> American severe weather forecasting center

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC).

The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather research laboratory under the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. It is one of seven NOAA Research Laboratories (RLs).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tornado emergency</span> Severe weather statement indicating an observed violent tornado in the warned area

A tornado emergency is an enhanced version of a tornado warning, which is used by the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States during imminent, significant tornado occurrences in highly populated areas. Although it is not a new warning type from the NWS, issued instead within a severe weather statement or in the initial tornado warning, a tornado emergency generally means that significant, widespread damage is expected to occur and a high likelihood of numerous fatalities is expected with a large, strong to violent tornado.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">VORTEX projects</span> Field experiments that study tornadoes

The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment are field experiments that study tornadoes. VORTEX1 was the first time scientists completely researched the entire evolution of a tornado with an array of instrumentation, enabling a greater understanding of the processes involved with tornadogenesis. A violent tornado near Union City, Oklahoma was documented in its entirety by chasers of the Tornado Intercept Project (TIP) in 1973. Their visual observations led to advancement in understanding of tornado structure and life cycles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1999 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado</span> 1999 tornado in Oklahoma, US

The 1999 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado was a large, long-lived and exceptionally powerful F5 tornado in which the highest wind speed ever measured globally was recorded at 321 miles per hour (517 km/h) by a Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radar. Considered the strongest tornado ever recorded to have affected the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, the tornado devastated southern portions of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States while near peak intensity, along with surrounding suburbs and towns to the south and southwest of the city during the early evening of Monday, May 3, 1999. Parts of Bridge Creek were rendered unrecognizable. The tornado covered 38 miles (61 km) during its 85-minute existence, destroying thousands of homes, killing 36 people, and leaving US$1 billion in damage, ranking it as the fifth-costliest on record not accounting for inflation. Its severity prompted the first-ever use of the tornado emergency statement by the National Weather Service.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tornado outbreak of May 18–21, 2013</span> Tornado outbreak that struck the Midwestern United States on May 18–21, 2013

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma</span> Weather Forecast Office of the National Weather Service

National Weather Service - Norman, Oklahoma is a Weather Forecast Office (WFO) of the National Weather Service based in Norman, Oklahoma, which is responsible for forecasts and the dissemination of weather warnings and advisories for central and most of western Oklahoma, and western portions of north Texas. It is located in the National Weather Center on the University of Oklahoma campus, where it acts as one of the NOAA Weather Partners, a group of close-together weather-related agencies of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NWS Norman is currently overseen by Mark Fox, who serves as the Meteorologist In Charge of the office.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Erik N. Rasmussen</span> American meteorologist (born 1957)

Erik Nels Rasmussen is an American meteorologist and leading expert on mesoscale meteorology, severe convective storms, forecasting of storms, and tornadogenesis. He was the field coordinator of the first of the VORTEX projects in 1994-1995 and a lead principal investigator for VORTEX2 from 2009-2010 and VORTEX-SE from 2016-2017, as well as involved in other smaller VORTEX offshoots and many field projects.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tornado outbreak of June 16–18, 2014</span> Summer tornado outbreak in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Greenfield tornado</span> 2024 EF4 tornado in southwestern Iowa

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References

  1. National Severe Storms Laboratory. "Warn on Forecast: WoFS". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  2. Heinselman, Pamela L.; Burke, Patrick C.; Wicker, Louis J.; Clark, Adam J.; Kain, John S.; Gao, Jidong; Yussouf, Nusrat; Jones, Thomas A.; Skinner, Patrick S.; Potvin, Corey K.; Wilson, Katie A.; Gallo, Burkely T.; Flora, Montgomery L.; Martin, Joshua; Creager, Gerry; Knopfmeier, Kent H.; Wang, Yunheng; Matilla, Brian C.; Dowell, David C.; Mansell, Edward R.; Roberts, Brett; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Stratman, Derek R.; Guerra, Jorge; Reinhart, Anthony E.; Kerr, Christopher A.; Miller, William (January 2024). "Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality". Weather and Forecasting . 39 (1). American Meteorological Society: 75–95. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0147.1 . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  3. Howard, Brian Clark. "How Scientists Hope to Improve Tornado Forecasting". National Geographic . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  4. "What is the future of severe weather forecasting? Iowa's devastating derecho, 1 year later". WOI-DT . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  5. 1 2 "NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Warn-on-Forecast" (PDF). National Severe Storms Laboratory . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  6. National Severe Storms Laboratory. "Tornado event at Elk City, OK, May 16, 2017". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  7. Moody, Wes. "SCIENCE IMPACT: Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System yields 75-minute lead time on violent tornado – NSSL News". National Severe Storms Laboratory . National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  8. Dennis, Hannah (5 September 2024). "Weather organization that gave Greenfield advance warning before tornado celebrates 60 years". West Des Moines, Iowa: WOI-DT . Retrieved 20 November 2024.