Warn-on-Forecast

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Warn-on-Forecast (WoF or WoFS) is an ongoing research project being conducted by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, designed to increase the lead time for tornado warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and flash flood warnings. [1] [2] [3] [4]

Timeline

The research project was started in 2016 in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. [5]

On May 16, 2017, a Tornado outbreak sequence of May 15–20, 2017#deadly EF2 tornado struck Elk City, Oklahoma. Before the tornado formed, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma (NWS Norman) office saw storms form in Texas. NSSL, who works in the same building as NWS Norman, had a meteorologist embedded with the NWS Norman meteorologists. The Warn-on-Forecast system, which was being monitored by the NSSL meteorologist, noted a high chance of a tornado occurring in the Elk City area well before the tornado occurred. As a result, the National Weather Service issued a Significant Weather Advisory which stated, “Severe weather is likely with these storms as they move into Oklahoma and there is a high probability that tornado warnings will be issued.” Following the advisory being issued, the Elk City Emergency Manager, Lonnie Risenhoover, activated the tornado sirens to warn residents of Elk City nearly 30 minutes before the tornado struck. NWS Norman subsequently issued a tornado warning for Elk City, which was in place 28 minutes before the tornado struck. This was the first time WoFS influenced real time tornado warnings from the National Weather Service. [6]

In May 2018, tests were conducted alongside meteorologists at the NWS Norman office. [5]

On May 21, 2024, a violent EF4 tornado struck the city of Greenfield, Iowa. A few weeks after the tornado, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released details about an experimental warning system which was tested before and during the tornado. This new warning system, named Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), was created by the Hazardous Weather Testbed housed in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the experiment and test, the WoFS gave a high indication of “near-ground rotation” in and around the area of Greenfield, Iowa between 2-4 p.m. According to the press release, 75-minutes later, the violent EF4 tornado touched down. Scientists with the National Severe Storms Laboratory were able to give local National Weather Service forecasters a 75-minute lead time for the tornado. [7] [8]

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References

  1. ↑ National Severe Storms Laboratory. "Warn on Forecast: WoFS". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  2. ↑ Heinselman, Pamela L.; Burke, Patrick C.; Wicker, Louis J.; Clark, Adam J.; Kain, John S.; Gao, Jidong; Yussouf, Nusrat; Jones, Thomas A.; Skinner, Patrick S.; Potvin, Corey K.; Wilson, Katie A.; Gallo, Burkely T.; Flora, Montgomery L.; Martin, Joshua; Creager, Gerry; Knopfmeier, Kent H.; Wang, Yunheng; Matilla, Brian C.; Dowell, David C.; Mansell, Edward R.; Roberts, Brett; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Stratman, Derek R.; Guerra, Jorge; Reinhart, Anthony E.; Kerr, Christopher A.; Miller, William (January 2024). "Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality". Weather and Forecasting . 39 (1). American Meteorological Society: 75–95. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0147.1 . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  3. ↑ Howard, Brian Clark. "How Scientists Hope to Improve Tornado Forecasting". National Geographic . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  4. ↑ "What is the future of severe weather forecasting? Iowa's devastating derecho, 1 year later". WOI-DT . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  5. 1 2 "NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Warn-on-Forecast" (PDF). National Severe Storms Laboratory . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  6. ↑ National Severe Storms Laboratory. "Tornado event at Elk City, OK, May 16, 2017". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  7. ↑ Moody, Wes. "SCIENCE IMPACT: Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System yields 75-minute lead time on violent tornado – NSSL News". National Severe Storms Laboratory . National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  8. ↑ Dennis, Hannah (5 September 2024). "Weather organization that gave Greenfield advance warning before tornado celebrates 60 years". West Des Moines, Iowa: WOI-DT . Retrieved 20 November 2024.
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