Worst-case analysis

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The worst-case analysis regulation [1] was promulgated in 1979 by the US Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). The regulation is one of many implementing the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 [2] and it sets out the formal procedure a US government agency must follow when confronted with gaps in relevant information or scientific uncertainty about significant adverse effects on the environment from a major federal action. [3]

Synopsis

The regulation requires an agency to make known when it is confronted with gaps in relevant information or scientific uncertainty. [1] The agency then must determine if the missing information is essential to a reasoned choice among the alternatives. When the missing information is material to the decision an agency ordinarily must obtain the information and include it in an environmental impact statement (EIS). [1] If the means for obtaining the missing information are beyond the state of the art or alternatively if the costs of obtaining it are exorbitant the agency must then prepare a worst-case analysis. [1] In this analysis the agency must weigh the need for the action against the risks and in the face of uncertainty. The agency also is to indicate the probability or improbability of the worst case's occurrence. [4]

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Worst case analysis was, from 1978 until 1986, a doctrine under 40 U.S.C. § 1502.22 which mandated that an environmental impact statement include such an analysis:

When an agency is evaluating significant adverse effects on the human environment in an environmental impact statement and there are gaps in relevant information or scientific uncertainty, the agency shall always make clear that such information is lacking or that uncertainty exists.

(a) If the information relevant to adverse impacts is essential to a reasoned choice among alternatives and is not known and the overall costs of obtaining it are not exorbitant, the agency shall include the information in the environmental impact statement.

(b) If (1) the information relevant to adverse impacts is essential to a reasoned choice among alternatives and is not known and the overall costs of obtaining it are exorbitant or (2) the information is relevant to adverse impacts, is important to the decision and the means to obtain it are not known the agency shall weigh the need for the action against the risk and severity of possible adverse impacts were the action to proceed in the face of uncertainty. If the agency proceeds, it shall include a worst case analysis and an indication of the probability or improbability of its occurrence.

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References

PD-icon.svg This article incorporates public domain material from websites or documents of the United States Government .

  1. 1 2 3 4 40 CFR 1502.22
  2. NEPA 42 USC 4321 et seq (1976)
  3. "Northwest Area Noxious Weed Control Program: Environmental Impact Statement". United States. Bureau of Land Management. December 1985.
  4. "Northwest Area Noxious Weed Control Program: Environmental Impact Statement". United States. Bureau of Land Management. December 1985.