| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Brecon and Radnorshire constituency | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout | 59.7%  17.2 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A by-election was held in the UK Parliament constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (Welsh : Brycheiniog a Sir Faesyfed) on 1 August 2019 after Chris Davies, who had held the seat for the Conservatives since the 2015 general election, was unseated by a recall petition. [1] [2] The by-election was won by Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats.
Richard Livsey, a Liberal standing for the SDP–Liberal Alliance, won the seat in the 1985 Brecon and Radnor by-election and retained it in 1987. He lost it narrowly as a Liberal Democrat MP to the Conservative Jonathan Evans in the 1992 general election. The Liberal Democrats regained the seat in the 1997 election and held it until 2015, when Chris Davies won it for the Conservatives. [3] Davies retained his seat at the 2017 general election with an increased majority of 8,038 over the Liberal Democrat candidate.
A seat with the same name and boundaries exists in the Welsh Assembly. At the time of the by-election, the seat had been represented by Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams continuously from its creation in 1999. [4]
In February 2019, Davies was charged with claiming false expenses, pursuant to the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009. [5] He pleaded guilty in March [6] [7] and, in April, was sentenced to a community order of 50 hours unpaid work and a £1,500 fine. [8] Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, this conviction triggered a recall petition. [9] After receiving notice from the sentencing court, the Speaker of the House of Commons indicated on 24 April 2019 that he would be instructing the constituency's petition officer to begin the recall process. [8] The petition opened on 9 May and remained open for signatures until 20 June 2019. [9] It required 5,303 signatures (10% of eligible voters) to be successful. [10] [11] The Conservative Party were officially registered as campaigners for the petition's failure, [12] while the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Plaid Cymru campaigned for its success. [13] [14] [15]
This petition was successful, receiving 10,005 signatures (19%), significantly in excess of the 10% of constituents required. [16] Davies was removed from the seat, [17] creating a vacancy to be filled at a by-election, in which he was permitted to stand.
The by-election occurred shortly after Boris Johnson won the 2019 Conservative leadership election and became Prime Minister, [18] as well as Jo Swinson taking office after winning the 2019 Liberal Democrats leadership election. The result reduced the working majority of the government (including confidence and supply from the DUP) in the House of Commons to one. [17] [19] [lower-alpha 1] This makes him the PM to serve the shortest period before losing a by-election, just 10 days.
The by-election came against the continuing backdrop of Brexit. The constituency lies within the county of Powys, where, at the 2019 European Parliament election, the Brexit Party gained the most votes. [20]
It was the first Westminster by-election to take place in the month of August since the second Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election of 1981. It is to date the last by-election to be held in Wales.
The by-election was administered by Powys County Council. The deadline for candidate nominations was 5 July, by which time a total of six candidates had registered. [21]
Davies wished to stand for re-election as the Conservative Party candidate and was chosen by the local party. [22] The Liberal Democrat candidate was Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. The Labour Party candidate was Brecon town councillor Tom Davies. [1] The Brexit Party candidate was retired police chief superintendent Des Parkinson, [23] who previously stood in Montgomeryshire as a UK Independence Party (UKIP) candidate for election to the UK parliament in May 2015, to the Welsh Assembly in May 2016, [24] and as Dyfed-Powys Police and Crime Commissioner, also in May 2016. [25]
Dodds, the Liberal Democrat candidate, was also supported by Plaid Cymru, the Greens, Change UK and the Renew Party. Plaid Cymru first indicated that it might not stand a candidate in order to support another party supporting a second referendum on Brexit. [3] Change UK called for an independent joint Remain candidate in a letter to the Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens. [26] Plaid and Change UK subsequently confirmed that they were in talks with other Remain-supporting parties. [27] Plaid Cymru decided not to put up a candidate, and instead to support Dodds. [28] The Green Party also chose not to stand a candidate, in order to "maximise the chances of the candidate most likely to beat the Conservatives and the Brexit Party." [29] The Renew Party likewise chose not to stand a candidate for the same reason. [30]
Shortly after the result of the recall petition was announced, bookmakers made the Liberal Democrats odds-on favourites to win. [3] In the final week before the election, Heidi Allen MP, former leader of Change UK and now sitting with The Independents, came to the constituency to campaign for Dodds. [31] The new Liberal Democrat leader, Jo Swinson, visited the constituency four times, but the New Statesman noted that The Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage had not, and described the party's campaign infrastructure as "threadbare". [32]
Days before the election, BBC Cymru Wales reported that, in May 2019, the Conservative Party's Brecon and Radnorshire chairman, Peter Weavers, had discussed a pro-Brexit pact with Nathan Gill, a Welsh Brexit Party MEP. Gill dismissed the idea due to Davies' support for the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May's government. Weavers denied the claim. [33]
Only one poll was conducted, with fieldwork taking place from 10 to 18 July. The poll was completed before Johnson and Swinson were elected as leaders of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats respectively. Commenting on the paucity of polling, Britain Elects noted: "Constituency opinion polling isn’t tried much in the UK these days; it’s difficult to get a sample with such a small electorate, and when it was tried on a large scale in advance of the 2015 election it fell victim to the same polling failures that beset that election." [34]
The poll, by Number Cruncher Politics, was the first UK by-election poll to be conducted entirely online. [35] [36]
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | Con | Lib Dem | Lab | UKIP | Brexit | MRLP | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 by-election result | 1 Aug 2019 | – | 39.0% | 43.5% | 5.3% | 0.8% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| Number Cruncher Politics | 10–18 Jul 2019 | 509 | 28% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 20% | 1% | 0% | 15% |
| 2017 general election | 8 Jun 2017 | – | 48.6% | 29.1% | 17.7% | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | 3.1% | 19.5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | Jane Dodds | 13,826 | 43.5 | +14.4 | |
| Conservative | Christopher Davies | 12,401 | 39.0 | –9.6 | |
| Brexit Party | Des Parkinson | 3,331 | 10.5 | N/A | |
| Labour | Tom Davies | 1,680 | 5.3 | –12.4 | |
| Monster Raving Loony | Lady Lily the Pink | 334 | 1.1 | N/A | |
| UKIP | Liz Phillips | 242 | 0.8 | –0.6 | |
| Majority | 1,425 | 4.5 | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 31,814 | 59.6 | –17.3 | ||
| Registered electors | 53,393 | ||||
| Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative | Swing | +12.0 | |||
The result was announced at around 2:20 a.m. on 2 August. [39] In her victory speech, Jane Dodds said she would urge Prime Minister Boris Johnson to "stop playing with the future of our communities and rule out a no-deal Brexit". [40] By failing to secure at least 5% of the votes cast, both the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (1.05%) and the UK Independence Party (0.76%) forfeited their deposits. [41] [37] The 59.6% turnout figure was the highest recorded in a Westminster by-election since Winchester in 1997. [37]
The Liberal Democrat majority was smaller than the number of votes polled by the Brexit Party, leading many commentators to suggest that vote splitting between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party was a significant threat to the party. [42] [43] The Brexit Party did however underperform relative to polls (although they got nearly twice as many votes as the Labour Party and came a clear third), with the BBC suggesting that the appointment of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister had helped the Conservatives win back some Brexit Party supporters. [43] Meanwhile, the narrow win for the Lib Dems bolstered support for a "Remain Alliance", [43] but the largest increase in Lib Dem votes appeared to come from those who voted Labour in 2017. The Guardian noted that although Labour had prioritised beating the Conservatives over winning the seat themselves, Labour's result was still "at the lower end of what was credible". [42] The extremely small vote share for UKIP was reported as an embarrassment for the party, and their failure to beat even the Official Monster Raving Loony Party was compared to the May 1990 Bootle election in which David Owen's continuing Social Democratic Party received fewer votes than the Loonys and collapsed shortly after. [44] [45]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Christopher Davies | 20,081 | 48.6 | +7.5 | |
| Liberal Democrats | James Gibson-Watt | 12,043 | 29.1 | +0.8 | |
| Labour | Dan Lodge | 7,335 | 17.7 | +3.0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | Kate Heneghan | 1,299 | 3.1 | –1.3 | |
| UKIP | Peter Gilbert | 576 | 1.4 | –6.9 | |
| Majority | 8,038 | 19.5 | +6.7 | ||
| Turnout | 41,334 | 76.9 | +3.1 | ||
| Registered electors | 56,010 | ||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | +3.4 | |||
Brecon and Radnorshire is a county constituency in Wales of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Created in 1918, it elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first-past-the-post system of election. The constituency is represented by Fay Jones of the Conservative Party, who defeated incumbent Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 general election.
Esher and Walton is a constituency in Surrey represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament. Since 2010, it has been represented by Dominic Raab of the Conservative Party, who served as deputy prime minister before resigning from that role in April 2023 due to bullying allegations. In May he announced he would be standing down as an MP at the next general election.
The Welsh Conservatives is the branch of the United Kingdom Conservative Party that operates in Wales. At Westminster elections, it is the second-most popular political party in Wales, having obtained the second-largest share of the vote at every general election since 1931. In Senedd elections, the Conservatives are currently the second-most supported party but have at times been third. They hold 14 of the 40 Welsh seats in the UK Parliament, and 16 of the 60 seats in the Senedd.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats are a branch of the United Kingdom Liberal Democrats that operates in Wales. The party is led by Jane Dodds, who served as MP for Brecon and Radnorshire from August to December 2019, and MS for Mid and West Wales since May 2021. The party currently has 1 elected member in the Senedd and no Welsh seats in the UK House of Commons, but does have several members of the House of Lords. The party had 69 local councilors serving in principal authorities as of the 2022 local authority elections, up 10 from 2017.
The 2011 National Assembly for Wales election was an election for the National Assembly. The poll was held on 5 May 2011 and decided the incumbency for all the Assembly's seats. It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.
The 1985 Brecon and Radnor by-election was a parliamentary by-election held on 4 July 1985 for the British House of Commons constituency of Brecon and Radnor.
The 2007 National Assembly for Wales election was held on Thursday 3 May 2007 to elect members to the National Assembly for Wales. It was the third general election. On the same day local elections in England and Scotland, as well as the Scottish Parliament election took place. This election was preceded by the previous Assembly election in 2003.
Suzy Davies is a Welsh Conservative Party politician, who served as a Member of the Senedd (MS) for South Wales West from 2011 to 2021. She was elected first on the Welsh Conservatives party list for the region in the 2011 election.
William "Bill" Powell is a Welsh Liberal Democrat politician. He has been a Powys County Councillor since 2004, and was a member of the Member of the Welsh Assembly (AM) for the Mid and West Wales Region from 2011 to 2016.
Christopher Paul Davies is a British politician who served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Brecon and Radnorshire from 2015 to 2019. He is a member of the Conservative Party.
Alun Craig Williams is a British politician who has served as Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Prime Minister since October 2022. A member of the Conservative Party, he was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Cardiff North from 2015 to 2017, when he was defeated for reelection by Labour's Anna McMorrin. At the 2019 general election, Williams was elected as the MP for Montgomeryshire.
The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019 to elect members of the House of Commons. The Conservative Party won a landslide victory with a majority of 80 seats, a net gain of 48, on 43.6% of the popular vote, the highest percentage for any party since the 1979 United Kingdom general election.
The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.
Jane Dodds MS is a Welsh politician who has served as Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats since 2017. She was elected as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Brecon and Radnorshire at the seat's 2019 by-election, but was an MP for only three months before being defeated in the general election later the same year. In May 2021, Dodds was elected to the Senedd on the Mid and West Wales list. She is the only Liberal Democrat MS in the Senedd.
Events from the year 2019 in Wales.
A by-election was held in the UK Parliament constituency of Newport West in south Wales on 4 April 2019, following the death of Labour Party MP Paul Flynn. Labour nominated the trade unionist Ruth Jones, who held the seat for the party with 40% of the vote and a reduced majority. The Conservative candidate Matthew Evans came second with 31% of the vote, followed by Neil Hamilton, the UKIP candidate, on 8%. This was the third parliamentary by-election held during the 57th UK Parliament, which was elected at the 2017 general election.
The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on 12 December 2019 to elect all 650 members of the House of Commons, including the 40 Welsh seats.
Unite to Remain was a campaign and electoral pact during the 2019 United Kingdom general election. It involved three parties that supported remaining in the European Union: the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party of England and Wales, and, in Wales, Plaid Cymru. Its stated goal was to avoid the spoiler effect and maximise the number of MPs elected who would oppose Brexit.
Fay Alicia Jones is a British politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Brecon and Radnorshire since 2019. She is a member of the Conservative Party. She has been serving as Assistant Government Whip since October 2022.
