2024 Thuringian state election

2024 Thuringian state election

←  2019 1 September 2024
All 88 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia, plus overhang and leveling seats 45+ seats needed for a majority
Leader Bodo Ramelow Björn Höcke & Stefan Möller Christian Hirte Party Left AfD CDU Leader's seat Erfurt III List List – Last election 29 seats, 31.0% 22 seats, 23.4% 21 seats, 21.7%   Greens Leader Georg Maier Ann-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt & Bernhard Stengele Thomas Kemmerich Party SPD Greens FDP Leader's seat – [lower-alpha 1] – – List Last election 8 seats, 8.2% 5 seats, 5.2% 5 seats, 5.0%
Incumbent Government Second Ramelow cabinet Left–SPD–Green

The next election to the Landtag of Thuringia is scheduled for 1 September 2024. ^[1]

The current government is a minority government consisting of The Left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister-President Bodo Ramelow of The Left. As a result of the 2020 Thuringian government crisis, there was a cross-party agreement to hold an early Landtag election on 25 April 2021. ^[2] In January 2021, the parties involved agreed to postpone the election to 26 September due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. ^[3] All plans for a snap election were later shelved when it became clear there were not sufficient votes to dissolve the Landtag. ^[4] Minister-President Ramelow proposed 1 September as a date for the 2024 state elections, ^[5] that was later approved by his cabinet and the Landtag. ^[6]

Election date

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag, ^[7] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 5 February 2020 and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest in August 2024 and at the latest December 2024. ^[8]

According to the Thuringian Constitution, an early election may be held if, at the request of one-third of its members, the Landtag votes with a two-thirds majority to dissolve itself. This may also occur if the Landtag does not vote confidence in a Minister President within three weeks of a failed vote of confidence in the incumbent. The motion to dissolve the Landtag may only be voted on between the eleven and thirty days after its submission. If passed, the election must then take place within 70 days.

On 21 February 2020, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens came to an agreement to schedule a new election for 25 April 2021. ^[2] On 14 January 2021, the four parties agreed to postpone the election to 26 September 2021, the same date as the upcoming federal election. ^[3]

The vote to dissolve the Landtag was scheduled for 19 July. However, the motion was withdrawn on 16 July after four CDU and two Left members informed party leaders they would vote against it, leaving it clearly short of the required two-thirds majority. Left parliamentary leader Stefan Dittes announced there would not be another effort to dissolve the Landtag, and the red-red-green minority government would continue. ^{[4] [9]}

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2019 Thuringian state election

In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its voteshare by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes. ^[10]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis

Main article: 2020 Thuringian government crisis

On 5 February, the Landtag narrowly elected the FDP's state leader Thomas Kemmerich as Minister President, with 45 votes to incumbent Bodo Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU and, controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, who described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement. ^{[11] [12]} Kemmerich announced his pending resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He submitted his resignation 8 February, but remained in office in an interim capacity. ^[13]

Following discussions, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens announced on 21 February that they had reached an agreement to hold a new election for Minister President on 4 March 2020, and a new state election on 25 April 2021. The four parties stated that they would support Ramelow for Minister President, and that he would lead an interim government for the next 13 months until the election is held. This government would comprise the same red-red-green arrangement which governed Thuringia from 2014 to February 2020 but would not seek to pass a budget before the election. ^[2] Between them, the four parties hold 63 of the 90 seats in the Landtag (70%), more than the two-thirds required to dissolve the Landtag and trigger an early election. Ramelow was elected Minister President by the Landtag after three rounds of voting on 4 March. In the first two rounds, The Left, SPD, and Greens voted for Ramelow, while AfD voted for Höcke, the CDU abstained, and the FDP did not vote or abstain. In the third round, Höcke withdrew, and Ramelow was elected with 43 in favour, 23 against, and 20 abstentions. ^[14]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Thuringia.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2019 result		Current seats
					Votes (%)	Seats
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Heike Werner Steffen Dittes	31.0%	29 / 90	29 / 90
	AfD	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland	Right-wing populism	Björn Höcke Stefan Möller	23.4%	22 / 90	19 / 90
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Christian Hirte	21.3%	21 / 90	21 / 90
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Georg Maier  [ de ]	8.2%	8 / 90	8 / 90
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Ann-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt Bernhard Stengele	5.2%	5 / 90	5 / 90
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Thomas Kemmerich	5.0%	5 / 90	4 / 90
	BfT	Alliance for Thuringia Bündnis für Thüringen	National conservatism	TBD	Did not exist		2 / 57
	IND	Independents Parteilose	Birger Gröning  [ de ], Lars Schütze  [ de ]				2 / 57

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position. ^[15]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February. ^[16] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate. ^[17]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he would not stand as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election. ^[18]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2023 Thuringian State Election.

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Linke	AfD	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Infratest dimap	14–18 Mar 2024	1,182	16	29	20	9	5	–	15	6	9
INSA	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	18	31	21	6	5	2	13	4	10
INSA	8–15 Jan 2024	1,000	15	31	20	6	5	3	17	3	11
Forsa	6–10 Jan 2024	1,253	17	36	20	9	5	3	4	6	16
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	20.5	27.5	12.5	6	2.5	3	22.5	5.5	5
			27	36.5	16	7	3	4	–	6.5	9.5
INSA	30 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,000	20	34	22	9	4	4	–	7	12
INSA	7–13 Sep 2023	1,000	22	32	21	10	6	4	–	5	10
INSA	3–10 Jul 2023	1,000	22	32	20	10	5	4	–	7	10
			18	22	16	9	5	3	25	2	3
Infratest dimap	28 Jun – 3 Jul 2023	1,193	20	34	21	10	5	4	–	6	13
Wahlkreisprognose	16–28 May 2023	904	25	30	17.5	10	4	6	–	7.5	5
INSA	17–24 Apr 2023	1,000	22	28	21	11	6	5	–	7	6
INSA	20–27 Jan 2023	1,000	25	26	22	10	6	5	–	6	1
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec 2022	1,016	27	30	15	10	5	6	–	7	3
INSA	1–8 Nov 2022	1,108	23	25	21	11	7	5	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	25–31 Oct 2022	1,008	24	28	17.5	12	6	6	–	6.5	4
INSA	7–15 Sep 2022	1,081	23	26	20	11	8	5	–	7	3
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Aug–6 Sep 2022	1,000	22	28	20.5	11	5.5	5	–	8	6
Infratest dimap	28 Jul–2 Aug 2022	1,172	22	25	22	11	7	5	–	8	3
INSA	4–11 Jul 2022	1,019	24	24	20	13	8	5	–	6	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	7–15 Jun 2022	1,031	24	26	16	14	7	5	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	23–30 May 2022	1,000	24	23	18	16	7	4	–	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	6–14 Apr 2022	994	20	21	19	20	5	8	–	7	1
INSA	4–11 Apr 2022	1,027	24	22	20	16	7	5	–	6	2
INSA	1 Mar 2022	1,000	25	23	19	16	6	6	–	5	2
Infratest dimap	17–22 Feb 2022	1,158	23	24	19	15	5	7	–	7	1
INSA	24–30 Nov 2021	1,000	24	23	15	18	7	7	–	6	1
INSA	29 Sep–4 Oct 2021	1,074	20	24	15	21	7	8	–	5	3
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	11.4	24.0	16.9	23.4	6.6	9.0	–	8.7	0.6
Infratest dimap	20–23 Jul 2021	1,162	27	22	21	11	6	6	–	7	5
INSA	9–15 Jul 2021	1,006	27	22	21	9	7	8	–	6	5
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Jun 2021	–	28	22	21	10.5	6.5	7	–	5	6
INSA	7–14 Jun 2021	1,006	26	23	22	9	6	7	–	7	3
Wahlkreisprognose	18 May 2021	–	26	23	16	10.5	10.5	8	–	6	3
INSA	8–16 Mar 2021	1,036	30	23	19	9	8	6	–	5	7
Infratest dimap	25 Feb–1 Mar 2021	1,000	29	23	22	10	5	6	–	6	6
INSA	27 Jan–2 Feb 2021	1,000	31	23	22	7	8	6	–	3	8
Wahlkreisprognose	23–31 Jan 2021	–	29	22.5	25	10	6	5	–	2.5	4
Wahlkreisprognose	10–17 Nov 2020	–	33.5	22.5	24	8	5	3.5	–	3.5	9.5
INSA	2–5 Nov 2020	1,032	33	22	22	9	6	5	–	3	11
INSA	5–12 Oct 2020	1,004	33	22	22	8	7	4	–	4	11
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	33	22	22	9	5	4	–	5	11
Wahlkreisprognose	9–18 Aug 2020	–	34	20.5	20	10	5.5	5	–	5	13.5
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	32	20	24	10	6	4	–	4	8
Wahlkreisprognose	17–22 Jun 2020	–	35.5	21	19	8	6	6	–	4.5	14.5
INSA	15–22 Jun 2020	1,016	35	22	22	8	6	3	–	3	13
INSA	14–19 May 2020	1,010	34	22	21	8	7	5	–	3	12
Wahlkreisprognose	2–10 May 2020	–	35	25	17.5	8	3.5	8	–	3	10
Wahlkreisprognose	14–19 Apr 2020	–	34	26	20.5	8	4	4	–	3.5	8
INSA	25–31 Mar 2020	1,018	37	23	18	7	7	4	–	4	14
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	38	25	15	8	6	4	–	4	13
Wahlkreisprognose	13 Feb 2020	–	41	25.5	10	10.5	5	4	–	4	15.5
INSA	10–13 Feb 2020	1,006	40	25	14	7	6	4	–	4	15
Infratest dimap	7–10 Feb 2020	1,007	39	24	13	10	5	4	–	5	15
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	37	24	12	9	7	4	–	7	13
INSA	5–6 Feb 2020	1,006	34	23	19	6	6	7	–	5	11
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	32	24	19	8	6	6	–	5	8
2019 state election	27 Oct 2019	–	31.0	23.4	21.7	8.2	5.2	5.0	–	4.9	7.6

Hypothetical scenarios

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Ramelow list	AfD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	35 [lower-alpha 2]	37	15	4.5	3.5	[lower-alpha 2]	5	2
			25.5 [lower-alpha 3]	33	14.5	[lower-alpha 3]	3.5	17.5	6	7.5

Minister President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size										None/ Unsure	Lead
			Ramelow Linke	Höcke AfD	Mohring CDU	Voigt CDU	Maier SPD	Siegesmund Grüne	Kemmerich FDP	Kindervater Independent	Wagenknecht BSW
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	40	30	–	11	4	–	6	–	–	9	10
			33	26		10	4		5		13	9	7
			50	27		–	–		–		–	23	23
			45	–		24						31	21
			49			–	13					38	36
			–	20			25					55	5
				28		30	–					42	2
			45	–		–					15	40	30
INSA	30 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,000	34	18		12	4				–	31	16
INSA	17–24 Apr 2023	1,000	35	16		12	6					31	19
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec 2022	1,016	41	31		8	8					12	10
Wahlkreisprognose	25–31 Oct 2022	1,008	35	26		11	14					14	9
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Aug–6 Sep 2022	1,000	32	26		14	14					14	6
INSA	4–11 Jul 2022	1,019	38	11		4	3					44	27
Wahlkreisprognose	23–30 May 2022	1,000	40	18		15	16					11	22
Wahlkreisprognose	6–14 Apr 2022	994	38	16		13	18					15	20
INSA	4–11 Apr 2022	1,027	37	9		5	–					49	28
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	42	9		7	3	2	5			32	33
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	56	16		–	–	–	–			21	40
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	64	–	9				6	3		18	55
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	60	9	19				–	–		10	41

Preferred coalition

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Assessment	Linke SPD BSW			Linke SPD Grüne			Linke SPD		Linke CDU BSW			Linke CDU SPD			Linke CDU		Linke CDU SPD FDP				Linke AfD		CDU SPD Grüne			CDU SPD Grüne FDP				CDU SPD FDP			AfD BSW		AfD CDU FDP			AfD CDU
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	Positive	33			32			–		32			33			31		27				17		–			19				28			32		29			41
Infratest dimap	28 Jun–3 Jul 2023	1,193	Positive	–			27			–		–			–			26		–				–		21			13				27			–		–			31
			Negative				67											67								73			81				67								63
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	Positive	–			45			43		–			–			32		–				–		36			–				–			–		21			19
			Negative				52			52								63								60												76			78
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	Positive	–			43			–		–			–			33		–				–		–			–				–			–		–			19
			Negative				54											64																							79

Notes

1. Georg Maier was elected on the SPD list in the 2019 election but resigned from the Landtag in June 2020.
2. Linke, SPD and BSW within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.
3. Linke, SPD and Grüne within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.

References

1. Ramelow, Bodo (16 January 2024). "Für alle X Accounts, die mich dauernd fragen wann denn nun die Landtagswahlen in Thüringen wären". X.
2. "Troubled Thuringia gets fresh election dates". Deutsche Welle. 21 February 2020.
3. "State election in Thuringia postponed to September". Mdr.de. 14 January 2021.
4. Lehmann, Timo; Winter, Steffen (16 July 2021). "Weiter Chaos in Thüringen: Warum nichts aus der vorgezogenen Neuwahl des Landtags wurde". www.spiegel.de (in German).
5. "Landtagswahl in Thüringen 2024: Ramelow schlägt Termin 1. September vor". MDR THÜRINGEN (in German). 14 June 2023.
6. "Neuer Landtag wird am 1. September 2024 gewählt". MDR THÜRINGEN (in German). 9 September 2023.
7. landesrecht.thueringen.de
8. Wahltermine in Thüringen, auf wahlen.thueringen.de
9. "Landtagswahl abgesagt: Thüringer Landtag wird nicht aufgelöst". MDR (in German). 16 July 2021.
10. "Wahlen in Thüringen". Thüringer Landesamt für Statistik.
11. "Desolation and hope in German city of Erfurt after far-right vote". Deutsche Welle. 9 February 2020.
12. "Germany AfD: Thuringia PM quits amid fury over far right". BBC. 8 February 2020.
13. "Germany: Thuringia state premier Kemmerich quits, 'effective immediately'". Deutsche Welle. 8 February 2020.
14. "Germany's Thuringia gets left-wing state premier in re-run vote". 4 March 2020.
15. "SPD state executive nominates Maier for state chairmanship and top candidate". Mdr.de. 15 June 2020.
16. "Thuringian CDU still without a top candidate". Mdr.de. 16 November 2020.
17. "Mario Voigt is to become the CDU top candidate for the state election". Mdr.de. 17 November 2020.
18. "Has the FDP's Kemmerich problem now been solved?". Der Tagesspiegel. 11 December 2020.