Next Icelandic parliamentary election

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Next Icelandic parliamentary election
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  2021 By 27 September 2025

All 63 seats in the Althing
32 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
Independence Bjarni Benediktsson 17
Progressive Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 13
Left-Green Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson 8
Social Democratic Kristrún Frostadóttir 6
People's Inga Sæland 6
Pirates Collective leadership6
Reform Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir 5
Centre Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 2

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Iceland by Saturday 27 September 2025 to elect the 63 members of the Althing.

Contents

Background

Previous election

The 2021 parliamentary election took place on 25 September, a month before the latest date allowed by law. The government coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the Progressive Party and the Independence Party, led by prime minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, had been in place since the 2017 elections. This unusual coalition of parties from the left wing, the center and the right wing of Icelandic mainstream politics maintained its majority in parliament in the elections as the Independence Party had the same number of seats as before while the Progressive Party added 5 seats and the Left-Green movement lost 3. As for the opposition parties, the People's Party gained two seats and the Reform Party gained 1 seat. The Pirate Party held steady but the Social Democratic Alliance lost 1 seat and the Centre Party lost 4 of its seats in parliament. The Icelandic Socialist Party received 4.1% of the vote but no seats as 5% of the national vote is needed to eligible for the allocation of leveling seats.

The coalition partners from the previous term soon decided that the first option for coalition talks should be to renew their coalition. The second cabinet of Katrín Jakobsdóttir was then formed on 28 November. [1] [2]

Electoral system

The 63 members of the Althing are elected by open list proportional representation in six multi-member constituencies, with 54 seats distributed between parties at the constituency level with no electoral threshold and 9 leveling seats assigned to party lists at the national level with a threshold of 5 percent required in order to ensure proportionality with the election result. [3] The 54 constituency seats are distributed within each constituency according to the D'Hondt method. [4] Election lists are determined by parties; although voters have the option of altering the order of candidates or striking out particular candidates entirely but these rarely have any effect on the result. [3]

The number of voters per parliamentary seats varies significantly between the constituencies of Iceland. The number of seats per constituency was determined by law in 1999 and is not updated before each election except when the number of voters per each representative in the most represented constituency reaches half the number of voters per each representative in the least represented constituency. The constitution stipulates that in this case, a constituency seat should be transferred from the most represented constituency to the least represented constituency. This has already happened twice since 1999, in both cases transferring a constituency seat from the Northwest constituency to the Southwest constituency. In the 2021 election, the number of eligible voters behind each seat in the Southwest was 5671.5, more than double the 2693.5 eligible voters behind each seat in the Northwest. According to the constitution this means another transfer of a constituency seat from the Northwest to the Southwest before the next parliamentary election.

Date

Per Article 23 in Chapter V of Act No. 112 from the 25 June 2021 Elections Law, elections must be held no later than the same weekday of the month four years after the previous elections, counting from the turn of the month; [5] therefore, because the 2021 election took place on the fourth Saturday in September, the latest possible date for the next election is 27 September 2025.

Political parties

The table below lists political parties represented in the Althing after the 2021 parliamentary election and parties which are polled.

NameIdeologyPositionLeader2021 result
Votes (%)Seats
D Independence Party
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Conservatism Centre-right Bjarni Benediktsson 24.4%
16 / 63
B Progressive Party
Framsóknarflokkurinn
Nordic agrarianism Centre to centre-right Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 17.3%
13 / 63
V Left-Green Movement
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Eco-socialism Centre-left to left-wing Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson 12.6%
8 / 63
S Social Democratic Alliance
Samfylkingin
Social democracy Centre-left Kristrún Frostadóttir 9.9%
6 / 63
F People's Party
Flokkur fólksins
Disability rights Centre-left to right-wing Inga Sæland 8.8%
6 / 63
P Pirate Party
Píratar
Pirate politics Syncretic None8.6%
6 / 63
C Reform Party
Viðreisn
Liberalism Centre to centre-right Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir 8.3%
5 / 63
M Centre Party
Miðflokkurinn
Populism Centre-right to right-wing Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 5.4%
3 / 63
J Icelandic Socialist Party
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
Socialism Left-wing Gunnar Smári 4.1%
0 / 63

Opinion polls

Polling for the next Icelandic parliamentary election Next Icelandic Parliamentary Election Polls.svg
Polling for the next Icelandic parliamentary election
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeResp.Parties
GovernmentOppositionOth.Lead
D B V S F P C M J
Háskóli Íslands 22–30 Apr 20242,638-19.010.04.325.47.38.17.913.44.46.4
Gallup 3–28 Apr 20249,92548.118.08.84.429.77.28.27.512.83.411.7
Maskína 5–16 Apr 20241,74617.210.75.027.35.38.510.211.64.110.1
Gallup 1 Mar–2 Apr 202418.27.35.630.96.27.87.112.93.912.7
Maskína 6–12 Mar 20241,75318.09.46.725.65.79.59.711.93.57.6
Gallup 1–29 Feb 20249,96448.119.98.84.728.26.88.07.512.83.58.3
Maskína 7–27 Feb 20241,70618.48.55.927.26.49.09.211.14.38.8
Gallup 2–31 Jan 202410,50346.918.28.45.530.67.98.17.010.93.412.4
Maskína 10–15 Jan 20241,93616.610.35.725.76.57.611.711.84.19.1
Gallup 1 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 20249,63648.918.19.46.028.46.89.18.89.73.610.3
Maskína 19–27 Dec 20231,94517.39.95.626.36.88.112.29.44.39.0
Gallup 1–30 Nov 20239,72147.819.88.65.128.16.99.37.99.44.28.3
Maskína 3–7 Nov & 23–26 Nov 20232,37617.910.46.126.06.410.010.38.44.48.1
Gallup 2–31 Oct 202310,46349.820.57.46.029.16.510.27.58.64.18.6
Maskína 12–24 Oct 20231,93517.79.85.927.86.110.89.38.24.310.1
Gallup 1 Sep–3 Oct 202311,00548.520.48.15.730.15.79.67.98.63.99.7
Maskína 15–29 Sep 20231,46619.68.86.524.46.510.811.67.04.84.8
Gallup 1–31 August 202310,07649.521.17.55.928.56.310.37.28.74.47.4
Maskína 17–22 August 202395417.69.26.426.15.913.19.57.94.28.5
Gallup 3–30 July 202310,49146.121.08.96.128.65.710.57.08.53.67.6
Maskína 6–24 July 202383619.39.68.025.36.011.010.45.94.56.0
Prósent 22 June–22 July 20232,30051.816.17.17.327.48.514.58.97.22.911.3
Gallup 1 June–2 July 202311,33148.820.88.76.228.45.79.78.17.84.67.6
Maskína 1–22 June 20231,69118.58.87.027.26.611.39.76.34.78.7
Gallup 2–31 May 202310,31648.220.810.25.728.45.510.17.66.94.97.6
Maskína 4–16 May 20231,72619.210.06.127.35.611.09.16.45.28.1
Gallup 3 Apr–1 May 20239,91648.721.99.66.627.86.010.07.46.24.35.9
Maskína 13–19 Apr 202385218.710.28.225.74.411.410.66.04.97.0
Gallup 1 Mar–2 Apr 20231,12822.39.97.125.15.69.49.16.35.12.8
Maskína 6–20 Mar 20231,59920.213.26.024.45.210.29.15.76.04.2
Gallup 1–28 Feb 20239,51749.622.510.86.824.05.612.17.75.35.01.5
Maskína 3–13 Feb 20231,89220.112.36.723.35.912.78.25.85.02.2
Prósent 27 Jan–6 Feb 20232,40051.423.211.85.922.19.512.56.94.14.11.1
Maskína 13–18 Jan 202380421.812.18.323.65.110.49.15.93.61.8
Gallup 6–31 Jan 20239,84248.523.511.36.825.35.510.47.35.54.41.8
Gallup 1 Dec 2022–2 Jan 20237,11548.023.812.16.823.46.211.36.94.64.60.2
Prósent 22–30 Dec 20224,00049.623.210.86.720.59.714.36.24.54.02.7
Maskína 16–28 Dec 20221,70320.012.27.820.17.012.57.56.76.10.1
Gallup 1–30 Nov 202210,79850.824.112.27.521.14.512.27.45.65.23.0
Maskína 4–22 Nov 20222,48321.814.87.119.05.013.49.04.95.02.8
Prósent 14–17 Nov 20222,60051.321.114.68.019.16.411.810.64.24.22.0
Gallup 3–31 Oct 20228,26749.924.413.88.416.65.312.98.45.05.07.8
Maskína 30 Sep–17 Oct 20221,63822.815.07.714.44.614.39.55.06.57.8
Gallup 1 Sep–2 Oct 202211,14948.324.113.48.216.35.113.68.55.45.17.8
Maskína 16–27 Sep 20221,87520.815.68.715.25.012.310.45.36.85.2
Gallup 2–31 Aug 202210,71948.921.815.68.415.55.614.88.44.65.16.2
Maskína 12–17 Aug 202289020.919.67.512.94.613.98.94.57.31.3
Gallup 1 Jul–1 Aug 20229,70549.022.115.48.613.76.615.08.64.45.36.7
Maskína 20–25 Jul 202289524.418.07.710.96.912.78.36.05.16.4
Gallup 2–30 Jun 202210,27461.722.817.57.213.77.016.16.74.64.15.3
Maskína 1–23 Jun 20221,65819.318.38.513.46.314.68.84.76.11.0
Prósent 2–13 Jun 20221,78050.118.517.39.013.55.617.57.84.26.32.2
Gallup 2–31 May 202210,54851.920.117.58.114.16.414.79.54.35.02.6
Prósent 13–26 Apr 20223,50050.317.912.49.616.88.016.29.64.15.41.1
Gallup 1–30 Apr 20229,82850.119.815.610.113.77.714.59.64.14.64.2
Maskína 17 Mar–12 Apr 20221,36722.415.58.813.07.713.210.54.24.66.9
Gallup 1–31 Mar 202210,94149.622.718.011.411.28.211.99.13.73.64.7
Gallup 1–28 Feb 20229,67249.721.918.110.511.17.513.29.73.93.93.8
Maskína 28 Jan–16 Feb 20223,03921.916.912.913.47.610.39.73.93.55.0
Gallup 1–31 Jan 202210,91150.422.417.010.710.88.812.59.43.74.35.4
Maskína 6–19 Jan 20221,54820.117.811.212.38.513.59.23.73.73.3
Gallup 1–30 Dec 20217,89051.223.317.710.610.58.612.58.73.44.55.6
Gallup 1–30 Nov 202110,00051.022.717.013.010.78.011.88.43.84.45.7
Gallup 1–31 Oct 20218,89950.622.817.213.49.87.911.08.94.34.65.6
MMR 12–18 Oct 202196721.117.912.110.17.811.710.03.25.53.2
2021 parliamentary election 25 Sep 202124.417.312.69.98.98.68.35.54.10.57.1

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References

  1. "Iceland's left-right coalition agrees to take another term". Reuters. 28 November 2021. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  2. "Katrin Jakobsdottir, Iceland's Staunch Feminist PM, Begins Second Term". Voice of America . 28 November 2021. Retrieved 15 December 2021.
  3. 1 2 Ísland, Alþingiskosningar, 27. April 2013: Úttektarskýrsla (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 24 June 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  4. "Útreikningar við úthlutun jöfnunarsæta". Kosningavefur Dómsmála- og Mannréttindaráðuneytisins. 27 April 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
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