Shy Tory factor

Last updated

The term was coined after John Major was returned to power in 1992. Major PM full.jpg
The term was coined after John Major was returned to power in 1992.

"Shy Tory factor" is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the "Tories") was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls. [1] The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has allegedly affected the overall results, but has also been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States or the continued electoral victories of the People's Action Party in Singapore. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

Examples

1992 general election

In the 1992 general election, the final opinion polls gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind the Labour Party – suggesting that the election would produce a hung parliament or a narrow Labour majority and end 13 years of Tory rule. In the final results, the Conservatives received almost 42% (a lead of 7.6% over Labour) and won their fourth successive general election, though they now had a 21-seat majority compared to the 102-seat majority they had gained in the election five years previously. As a result of this failure to "predict" the result, the Market Research Society held an inquiry into the reasons why the polls had been so much at variance with actual public opinion. The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions; it cited as evidence the fact that exit polls on election day also underestimated the Conservative lead.

Following the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate. [1] The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus, YouGov and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election and then assuming that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate. [4] Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls. [4]

2015 general election

Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election underestimated the Conservative vote. UK Polling results vs actual.png
Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election underestimated the Conservative vote.

Opinion polls for the 2015 general election underestimated the Conservative vote, with most polls predicting a hung parliament, and exit polls suggesting Conservatives as the largest party but not majority, whereas the actual result was a slim Conservative majority of 12 seats. [5] Of the 92 election polls which met the standards of the British Polling Council in the six weeks before the 2015 election, none foresaw the 6.5% difference in the popular vote between the Conservative Party and Labour Party. One poll had Labour leading by 6%, two polls had Labour ahead by 4%, 7 polls had Labour ahead by 3%, 15 polls had Labour ahead by 2%, 17 polls had Labour ahead by 1%, 17 polls had a dead heat, 15 polls had the Conservatives ahead by 1%, 7 polls had the Conservatives ahead by 2%, 3 polls had the Conservatives ahead by 3%, 5 polls had the Conservatives ahead by 4%, one poll had the Conservatives ahead by 5% and two polls had the Conservatives ahead by 6%. The two polls that gave the Conservatives a 6% lead were published two weeks before the voting, and the final polls from those polling companies, published on the eve of the voting, gave a dead heat and a 1% Labour lead. [6] The result was eventually a Conservative Party majority with a popular vote share of 36.8% with the Labour Party achieving 30.4%. It was later widely claimed in the media that the "Shy Tory effect" had again occurred as it had done in 1992. [7]

The British Polling Council subsequently launched an independent enquiry into how polls were so wrong amid widespread criticism that polls are no longer a trustworthy avenue of measuring voting intentions. [8] [9] This enquiry found that, contrary to the popular reporting, there was no Shy Tory Factor in the election, and the polling had been incorrect for other reasons, most importantly unrepresentative samples. [10]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1992 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 1992 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 9 April 1992, to elect 651 members to the House of Commons. The election resulted in the fourth consecutive victory for the Conservative Party since 1979, with a majority of 21 and would be the last time that the Conservatives would win an overall majority at a general election until 2015. It was also the last general election to be held on a day which did not coincide with any local elections until 2017. This election result took many by surprise, as opinion polling leading up to the election day had shown a narrow but consistent lead for the Labour Party under leader Neil Kinnock.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1970 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 1970 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 18 June 1970. It resulted in a surprise victory for the Conservative Party under leader Edward Heath, which defeated the governing Labour Party under Prime Minister Harold Wilson. The Liberal Party, under its new leader Jeremy Thorpe, lost half its seats. The Conservatives, including the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), secured a majority of 30 seats. This general election was the first in which people could vote from the age of 18, after passage of the Representation of the People Act the previous year, and the first UK election where party, and not just candidate names were allowed to be put on the ballots.

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours to count.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United Kingdom general election</span> General election held in the United Kingdom

The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, with 45,597,461 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system.

Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bradley effect</span> Theory about discrepancies between opinion polls and election results in the United States

The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1982 Glasgow Hillhead by-election</span>

A Glasgow Hillhead by-election was held on 25 March 1982. The by-election was caused by the death of the Conservative Party Member of Parliament for Glasgow Hillhead Tam Galbraith on 2 January 1982.

In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.

In the run up to the general election of 2001, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the only general election held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and was the last general election to be held before the United Kingdom would vote to end its membership to the European Union (EU). Local elections took place in most areas of England on the same day.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Matt Singh</span> British polling/election analyst)

Matt Singh is an election and opinion polling analyst and was founder of the website and polling company Number Cruncher Politics, based in London. Singh rose to prominence in mid-2015 for his analysis which correctly predicted the opinion polling failure and Conservative victory at the 2015 UK general election.

Number Cruncher Politics is a political analysis and polling consultancy and website launched in 2014. The site is non-partisan and focused on UK opinion polling, psephology, and statistical analysis. It became known for correctly predicting the polling failure at the 2015 general election.

Prior to the 2019 United Kingdom general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Opinion polling about attitudes to the leaders of various political parties can be found in a separate article.

In the run up to the 1992 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in the United Kingdom. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the election to 8 April.

In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Mount, Harry (4 November 2004). "Republicans shyly make their presence felt". www.telegraph.co.uk . Retrieved 3 November 2010.
  2. ↑ "Singapore Elections: All Sunshine for the PAP?". 15 September 2015.
  3. ↑ WEISS, MEREDITH L., et al. “The 2015 General Election and Singapore's Political Forecast: White Clouds, Blue Skies.” Asian Survey, vol. 56, no. 5, 2016, pp. 859–878. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26364391. Accessed 10 May 2021.
  4. 1 2 Sexton, Richard (8 April 2010). "Election 2010: Tackling the Shy Tory problem". www.guardian.co.uk . Retrieved 3 November 2010.
  5. ↑ Cowling, David (8 May 2015). "Election results: How did pollsters get it so wrong?". BBC News.
  6. ↑ Cowling, David (17 May 2015). "Election 2015: How the opinion polls got it wrong". BBC News. Retrieved 17 May 2015.
  7. ↑ Elgot, Jessica (8 May 2015). "How 'shy Tories' confounded the polls and gave David Cameron victory". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 9 August 2016.
  8. ↑ "Why did the election pollsters get it so wrong?". The Guardian. 14 May 2015. Retrieved 17 May 2015.
  9. ↑ Stone, Jon (8 May 2015). "There's going to be an independent inquiry into why the pre-election polls were so inaccurate". The Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2015.
  10. ↑ "Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls" (PDF).
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.