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| Author | Jeffrey Lewis |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Houghton Mifflin Harcourt |
Publication date | 2018 |
| ISBN | 9781328573919 |
The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States is a speculative fiction novel by Jeffrey Lewis describing a hypothetical nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States of America, published by Mariner Books. It is written in the style of a government report written in the aftermath of the conflict, in 2023, and uses many real-world figures.
The conflict begins unintentionally, with a North Korean KN-06 unit in Ongjin, near the Korean Demilitarized Zone shooting down a civilian Air Busan Airbus A320, which was flying off-course and without a transponder due to a brief loss of power in the cockpit, having mistaken it for a U.S. stealth aircraft. South Korean President Moon Jae-in orders a retaliatory attack on North Korea without the approval of the United States, firing six missiles at the Headquarters of the Korean People's Army Air and Anti-Air Force near Pyongyang and a residence of Kim Jong-un.
Following the missile attack, North Korea's leadership, lacking communications infrastructure, misinterprets Tweets from U.S. President Donald Trump so as to believe that a decapitation strike is in-progress. [1] North Korea launches nuclear missiles in the hopes of staving off further U.S.-South Korean attacks, with nuclear bombs detonating over Seoul, Busan, Pyeongtaek and Daegu in South Korea and Tokyo and Yokohama in Japan. Missiles launched at Guam and Okinawa fail to reach their targets. Negotiations at the headquarters of the United Nations in New York City fail to resolve the conflict.
The United States launches a retaliatory conventional strike on North Korea, but fail to locate the vehicle-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles in North Korea's arsenal. North Korea proceeds to launch 13 nuclear-tipped missiles at the United States. The Ground-Based Interceptors at Fort Greely fail to intercept the incoming ICBMs, which detonate over Honolulu, Hawaii, Jupiter, Florida, Arlington County, Virginia, and Manhattan, New York. President Trump evacuates from Mar-a-Lago aboard Air Force One, narrowly avoiding the nuclear explosion. Kim Jong-un subsequently commits suicide at a bunker in Myohyangsan, and Mike Pence succeeds Trump as President of the United States.
American
North Korean
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Lewis drew inspiration from John Hersey's reporting on the atomic bombing of Hiroshima when depicting the casualties of nuclear war. [4] [5]
The book received positive reviews, with Julian Borger of The Guardian comparing it to nuclear war stories Dr. Strangelove and On the Beach . [6] The Economist observed that "The terrifying thing about “The 2020 Commission Report” is how much of it is real". [7] The Los Angeles Review of Books described it as "the gut punch everyone needs". [4]
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. It is based on the theory of rational deterrence, which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons. The strategy is a form of Nash equilibrium in which, once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm.
Nuclear blackmail is a form of nuclear strategy in which an aggressor uses the threat of use of nuclear weapons to force an adversary to perform some action or make some concessions. It is a type of extortion that is related to brinkmanship.
North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and, as of June 2023, is estimated to have an arsenal of approximately 30 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year. North Korea has also stockpiled a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. In 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Since 2006, the country has conducted six nuclear tests at increasing levels of expertise, prompting the imposition of sanctions.
Relations between North Korea and the United States have been historically hostile. The two countries have no formal diplomatic relations. Instead, they have adopted an indirect diplomatic arrangement using neutral intermediaries. The Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang is the US protecting power and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens. North Korea, officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), does not have an embassy in Washington, DC, but is represented in the United States through its mission to the United Nations in New York City which serves as North Korea's de facto embassy.
The Korean conflict is an ongoing conflict based on the division of Korea between North Korea and South Korea, both of which claim to be the sole legitimate government of all of Korea. During the Cold War, North Korea was backed by the Soviet Union, China, and other allies, while South Korea was backed by the United States, United Kingdom, and other Western allies.
Formerly a single nation that was annexed by Japan in 1910, the Korean Peninsula has been divided into North Korea and South Korea since the end of World War II on 2 September 1945. The two governments were founded in the two regions in 1948, leading to the consolidation of division. The two countries engaged in the Korean War from 1950 to 1953 which ended in an armistice agreement but without a peace treaty. North Korea is a one-party totalitarian state run by the Kim family. South Korea was formerly governed by a succession of military dictatorships, save for a brief one-year democratic period from 1960 to 1961, until thorough democratization in 1987, after which direct elections were held. Both nations claim the entire Korean Peninsula and outlying islands. Both nations joined the United Nations in 1991 and are recognized by most member states. Since the 1970s, both nations have held informal diplomatic dialogues in order to ease military tensions.
Kim Jong Un is a North Korean politician who has been supreme leader of North Korea since 2011 and the leader of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) since 2012. He is the third son of Kim Jong Il, who was North Korea's second supreme leader from 1994 until his death in 2011, and Ko Yong Hui. He is a grandson of Kim Il Sung, who was the founder and first supreme leader of North Korea from its establishment in 1948 until his death in 1994.
The Third World War is an apocalyptic novel, published in 2003 by the British journalist and author Humphrey Hawksley, portraying the modern world as it deals with the ever-worsening geopolitical situation.
The Korean Armistice Agreement is an armistice that brought about a cessation of hostilities of the Korean War. It was signed by United States Army Lieutenant General William Harrison Jr. and General Mark W. Clark representing the United Nations Command (UNC), North Korea leader Kim Il Sung and General Nam Il representing the Korean People's Army (KPA), and Peng Dehuai representing the Chinese People's Volunteer Army (PVA). The armistice was signed on 27 July 1953, and was designed to "ensure a complete cessation of hostilities and of all acts of armed force in Korea until a final peaceful settlement is achieved."
The Pukguksong-1 or Pukkŭksŏng-1, Bukgeukseong-1, alternatively KN-11 in intelligence communities outside North Korea, is a North Korean, two-stage submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that was successfully flight tested on 24 August 2016.
In the year 2017, North Korea was involved in the 2017 North Korea crisis, along with other events. The country conducted a nuclear test in September, and several missile tests throughout the year. One of these was the country's first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14. Two missiles were launched over Hokkaido in the Japanese archipelago, in August and in September 2017.
U.S. foreign policy during the presidency of Donald Trump (2017–2021) was noted for its unpredictability and reneging on prior international commitments, upending diplomatic conventions, embracing political and economic brinkmanship with most adversaries, and stronger relations with traditional allies. Trump's "America First" policy pursued nationalist foreign policy objectives and prioritized bilateral relations over multinational agreements. As president, Trump described himself as a nationalist while espousing views that have been characterized as isolationist, non-interventionist, and protectionist, although the "isolationist" label has been disputed, including by Trump himself, and periods of his political career have been described by the alternative term “semi-isolationist.” He personally praised some populist, neo-nationalist, illiberal, and authoritarian governments, while antagonizing others, even as administration diplomats nominally continued to pursue pro-democracy ideals abroad.
Throughout 2017, 17 missile tests were conducted by North Korea. These tests ranged in success, and included first tests of the DPRK's new missile, the Hwasong-12, which was the most-tested missile type over the course of the year. 2017's missile tests are especially notable due to the several instances of North Korean missiles passing over Japan, provoking a response from the Japanese government, as well as the test of an ICBM, the range of which prompted an Emergency Debate of the UN Security Council.
The 2017–2018 North Korea crisis was a period of heightened tension between North Korea and the United States throughout 2017. The crisis began early in 2017 when North Korea conducted a series of missile and nuclear tests that demonstrated the country's ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region, suggesting their nuclear weapons capability was developing at a faster rate than had been assessed by U.S. intelligence. Both countries started exchanging increasingly heated rhetoric, including nuclear threats and personal attacks between the two leaders, which, compounded by a joint U.S.–South Korea military exercise undertaken in August and North Korea's sixth nuclear test in September, raised international tensions in the region and beyond and stoked fears about a possible nuclear conflict between the two nations. In addition, North Korea also threatened Australia twice with nuclear strikes throughout the year for their allegiance with the United States.
The 2018 North Korea–United States Singapore Summit, commonly known as the Singapore Summit, was a summit meeting between North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump, held at the Capella Hotel, Sentosa, Singapore, on June 12, 2018. It was the first-ever meeting between leaders of North Korea and the United States. They signed a joint statement, agreeing to security guarantees for North Korea, new peaceful relations, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, recovery of soldiers' remains, and follow-up negotiations between high-level officials. Both leaders also met separately with Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
The leaders of some countries or their representatives or spokespersons released public statements about the 2018 North Korea–United States summit. The summit received a mixed international reaction, with many countries expressing praise or hope for achieving a peace deal from the summit.
The Peace Treaty on Korean Peninsula is a proposed settlement to formally end military hostilities on the Korean Peninsula as a follow-up to the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement implemented by the United Nations after the Korean War. During the inter-Korean summit on April 27, 2018, Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in signed the Panmunjom Declaration; the declaration involved an agreement about mutual efforts and action items for transforming the armistice agreement into a peace treaty with the cooperation of the United States and China. During the 2018 Trump–Kim summit, US president Donald Trump and Kim signed a Joint Statement which reaffirmed the Panmunjom Declaration. On November 23, 2023, North Korea terminated its 2018 agreement with South Korea.
The 2019 North Korea–United States Hanoi Summit, commonly known as the Hanoi Summit, was a two-day summit meeting between North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. president Donald Trump, held at the French Colonial Hôtel Métropole in Hanoi, Vietnam, during February 27–28, 2019. It was the second meeting between the leaders of North Korea and the United States following their first meeting in Singapore the year prior.
The 2018–19 Korean peace process was initiated to resolve the long-running Korean conflict and denuclearize Korea. International concerns about North Korea's nuclear weapons came to a head in 2017, when they posed a direct threat to the United States. At the same time, Moon Jae-in was elected president of South Korea with the promise of returning to the Sunshine Policy, favoring good relations with North Korea. A series of summits were held between North Korea's Kim Jong Un, South Korea's Moon, and Donald Trump of the United States. Trump became the first sitting US President to meet a North Korean leader and to enter North Korean territory. Kim became the first North Korean leader to enter South Korean territory. Moon became the first South Korean President to give a speech in North Korea. In parallel to this, a number of cultural exchanges began. Tensions were lowered on both sides of the DMZ.
The 2019 Koreas–United States DMZ Summit was a one-day summit held at the Korean Demilitarized Zone between North Korean chairman Kim Jong Un, U.S. president Donald Trump, and South Korean president Moon Jae-in, following the 2019 G20 Osaka summit. Trump briefly stepped over the border at 3:45 PM (GMT+9) on June 30, marking the first time a sitting U.S. president had set foot on North Korean soil. It was also the second time since the end of the Korean War in 1953 that a North Korean leader entered the South's territory, following the April 2018 inter-Korean summit. Senior White House advisors Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner also attended the summit, with Ivanka Trump and U.S. envoy to South Korea Harry B. Harris Jr. holding a meeting with Kim later broadcast on North Korean television.