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Voter segments in political polling in the United States consist of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.
| Part of the Politics series |
| Voting |
|---|
| |
| Politicsportal |
Voter segments in political polling in the United States consist of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.
Political opinion polling in the United States usually surveys one of three population segments.
According to the American Association for Public Opinion Research, "there is a consensus in the polling community that it is better to report 'likely' voters than 'registered' voters". [2] Reporting on a Pew study, the Washington Post has noted that polls of "likely voters" represent the "Holy Grail of polling" and are most likely to accurately reflect the outcome of an election. [3]
An analysis of 2010 polling by FiveThirtyEight concluded that polls of "registered voters" that year tended to favor Democratic candidates by a factor of five percentage points over the actual results of the election, while polls of "likely voters" tended to favor Republican candidates by a factor of one percentage point over the actual results of the election. [4] According to the Huffington Post this is because registered voters who are least likely to actually cast a ballot tend to be low-income voters, or persons living in urban areas, which are constituencies that tend to favor Democratic candidates. [5] A 2018 study by the Pew Research Center found that registered voters tend to lean more to the Democratic Party than to the Republican Party, stating that "For those individuals identified as registered to vote by state governments, the voter file has a score (ranging from 0 to 100) describing their likelihood of voting for Democrats or Republicans, with higher numbers indicating a preference for Democrats. According to the full voter file, 55% of all registered voters in the U.S. are likely Democrats and 33% are likely Republicans." [6] An October 2019 report from the Pew Research Center found that, among registered voters, "the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is typically about 3 percentage points smaller than it is among the general public in our surveys... registered voters tend to be older, wealthier and more likely to be non-Hispanic whites and homeowners, all of which are characteristics associated with a higher probability of being a Republican." [7] In addition, a 2017 analysis from the Pew Research Center found that "voter-only polls tend to get somewhat more favorable views of a Republican president or candidate and less favorable views of Democrats. This pattern was evident during Barack Obama’s presidency, with his overall ratings tending to be somewhat higher among the general public than among registered or likely voters." [8]
A 2020 report from the Pew Research Center found that in 2018 and 2019, "34% of registered voters identified as independent, compared with 33% who identify as Democrats and 29% who identify as Republicans. The share of registered voters who identify with the Republican Party is up 3 percentage points, from 26% in 2017, while there has been no change in the share who identify as Democrats." The report found wide differences among partisans based on race, gender, and education. The report notes that women are likelier than men to identify with the Democratic Party. The study found that "underlying the gender gap in leaned party identification is a gender difference in voters’ straight party identification: Men are more likely to identify as Republicans (31%) than Democrats (26%), while the reverse is true among women (39% identify as Democrats, 28% as Republicans)." [9] [10]
Polls targeting "likely voters" generally begin with a list of known registered voters and then ask respondents a series of screening questions before the survey is conducted. Often this can simply be "are you going to vote on Election Day?" with respondents who answer "yes" to the question being included in the survey's final results, and those who answer "no" being excluded. [11] In other cases, complex formulas that account for a variety of demographic and psychographic variables are applied. [11] Pollsters also ask respondents about their past voting history and their intention to vote on Election Day. [12]
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.
Gallup, Inc. is an American multinational analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Gallup provides analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition the company offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
Latino Americans have received a growing share of the national vote in the United States due to their increasing population. As of the 2020 U.S. Census, 62.1 million Latinos live in the United States, representing 18.9% of the total U.S. population. This is a 23% increase since 2010. This racial/ethnic group is the second largest after non-Hispanic whites in the U.S. In 2020, the states with the highest Hispanic or Latino populations were; Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Texas. According to the Brookings Institution, Latinos will become the nations largest minority by 2045 and the deciding population in future elections. With the help of laws and court case wins, Latinos have been able to receive the help needed to participate in American Politics. According to data provided by The Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS), 72% of Latinos believe that it is very/somewhat important to get their voice heard by voting. They have traditionally been a key Democratic Party constituency, but more recently have begun to split between the Democratic and Republican Party. Since the Latino population is large and diverse, a lot of political differences exist between gender, national origin, and generational groups.
Public opinion of same-sex marriage in the United States has significantly changed since the 1990s, and an overwhelming majority of Americans now favor same-sex marriage.
The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
This article lists international opinion polls taken in various countries around the world during 2008 relating to the 2008 United States presidential election. Most polls measured foreign preference for Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain. For international reaction to the election, see International reaction to the United States presidential election, 2008.
A 47-nation global survey of public opinion conducted in June 2007 by the Pew Global Attitudes Project found considerable opposition to the NATO military operations in Afghanistan. In 2 out of the 47 countries was there a majority that favoured keeping troops in Afghanistan – Israel (59%) and Kenya (60%). On the other hand, in 41 of the 47 countries pluralities wanted NATO troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible. In 32 out of 47 countries majorities wanted NATO troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible. Majorities in 7 out of 12 NATO member countries wanted troops withdrawn as soon as possible.
In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The demographics of sexual orientation and gender identity in the United States have been studied in the social sciences in recent decades. A 2022 Gallup poll concluded that 7.1% of adult Americans identified as LGBT. A different survey in 2016, from the Williams Institute, estimated that 0.6% of U.S. adults identify as transgender. As of 2022, estimates for the total percentage of U.S. adults that are transgender or nonbinary range from 0.5% to 1.6%. Additionally, a Pew Research survey from 2022 found that approximately 5% of young adults in the U.S. say their gender is different from their sex assigned at birth.
Statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election include the following. The polls listed here provide early data on opinion polling between the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate, and the Green candidate. Prior to the parties' conventions, presumptive candidates were included in the polls. State polling is not conducted in all states for the election due to various factors. More polls usually are conducted in states that are considered swing states as more attention is given to the results. For determining a statistical tie, the margin of error provided by the polling source is applied to the result for each candidate.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
This page lists nationwide public opinion polling among demographics that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election between prospective Democratic and Republican candidates. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.
Public opinion on gun control in the United States has been tracked by numerous public opinion organizations and newspapers for more than 20 years. There have also been major gun policies that affected American opinion in the 1990s. Throughout these polling years, there are different gun control proposals that show promise for bipartisan action. Over the years listed there have been mass shootings, most notably school shootings, that have affected public opinion. There have also been a growth in states around the United States taking more drastic measures on gun control.
After it went into effect on January 1, 1994, public opinion in the United States on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) varied over time. In 2020, NAFTA was superseded by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
This is a list of opinion polls taken on the Presidency of Donald Trump in 2018.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less accurate than in the 2016 election, and possibly more inaccurate than in any election since 1996.
In the United States, Sanders–Trump voters, also known as Bernie–Trump voters, are Americans who voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 or 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, but who subsequently voted for Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the general election. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, these voters comprised an estimated 12% of Sanders supporters. At least another 12% of Sanders supporters did not vote for Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton, but also did not vote for Trump.
Generation Z, colloquially also referred to as 'zoomers', is the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha. Researchers and popular media use the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years, while they use the early 2010s as the ending birth years.
The Democratic Party of the United States is composed of various demographic groups.
There is a consensus in the polling community that it is better to report "likely" voters than "registered" voters, especially as Election Day approaches.