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Turnout | 53.38% | ||||||||||||||||
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Menendez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hugin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Jersey |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Jersey. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Menendez won reelection to a third term over Republican businessman Bob Hugin.
The candidate filing deadline was April 2, 2018, for Democratic and Republican candidates, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018. [1] The deadline for independent candidates was June 5, 2018. [2]
Despite the race being rated as a tossup by some political pundits, including The Cook Political Report , [3] Menendez was reelected by an 11.2% margin. However, Hugin was the first Republican Senate candidate to carry Atlantic and Gloucester counties since Clifford Case's landslide victory in 1972.
While he never lost support from any major New Jersey officials, after a mistrial was declared in Senator Menendez's corruption trial, party figures across New Jersey lined up with public endorsements of his reelection bid, including the "full support" of Governor Phil Murphy. [4] He formally declared his intention to run for reelection on March 28, 2018, alongside Governor Murphy and Senator Cory Booker. [5]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Menendez (incumbent) | 262,477 | 62.28% | |
Democratic | Lisa McCormick | 158,998 | 37.72% | |
Total votes | 421,475 | 100% |
Bob Hugin launched his primary campaign on February 13 in Springfield. [14] He began advertising on television two weeks later, attacking Menendez on the airwaves, [15] and was soon considered the presumptive nominee. [16] His opponent, Brian Goldberg, attempted to connect himself to President Donald Trump and his supporters by inserting the President's abbreviated slogan, "MAGA", into his ballot slogans and aligning himself with other pro-Trump, anti-establishment candidates. [17] Goldberg also attacked Hugin's running mates, urging Republicans to write in the deceased Charlton Heston in primary races where a Republican congressional candidate was running unopposed. [18] Ultimately, Hugin won overwhelmingly with a majority of votes in each of the state's 21 counties. [19]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bob Hugin | 168,052 | 75.13% | |
Republican | Brian Goldberg | 55,624 | 24.87% | |
Total votes | 223,676 | 100% |
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Bob Hugin (R) | $30,289,561 | $27,714,323 | $2,575,238 |
Bob Menendez (D) | $11,631,183 | $11,225,693 | $1,832,385 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [70] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [71] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [72] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [73] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
CNN [74] | Lean D | October 1, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [75] | Lean D | October 3, 2018 |
Fox News [76] | Lean D | October 30, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Menendez (D) | Bob Hugin (R) | Murray Sabrin (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,006 | – | 51% | 41% | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,115 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 40% | – | 1% | 4% |
Stockton University | October 25–31, 2018 | 598 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
Vox Populi Polling | October 27–29, 2018 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 659 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 4% | 7% |
Rutgers-Eagleton Archived October 21, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | October 12–19, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.1% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% |
896 RV | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 5% | ||
Quinnipiac University | October 10–16, 2018 | 873 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 0% | 5% |
Monmouth University | October 11–15, 2018 | 527 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | 1% | 2% [77] | 8% |
National Research Inc. (R-Hugin) | October 6–9, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | – | – | – |
YouGov | October 2–5, 2018 | 845 | – | 49% | 39% | – | 4% | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | September 25 – October 2, 2018 | 1,058 | ± 4.1% | 53% | 42% | – | 0% | 5% |
Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 794 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 48% | – | – | – |
Fairleigh Dickinson University | September 26–30, 2018 | 508 LV | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 1% | 19% |
746 RV | ± 3.9% | 37% | 32% | – | 1% | 29% | ||
Stockton University | September 19–27, 2018 | 531 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
Quinnipiac University | August 15–20, 2018 | 908 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 37% | – | 2% | 16% |
Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin) | August 14–15, 2018 | 753 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 30% | 7% | – | 22% |
Gravis Marketing | July 6–10, 2018 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 41% | – | – | 16% |
Fairleigh Dickinson University | May 16–21, 2018 | 856 | ± 3.5% | 28% | 24% | – | 1% | 46% |
Monmouth University | April 6–10, 2018 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 53% | 32% | – | 7% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | March 8–12, 2018 | 1,052 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 32% | – | 1% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rob Andrews (D) | Thomas Kean (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | March 24–25, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 17% | 33% | 50% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Richard Codey (D) | Joe Kyrillos (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | March 24–25, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Menendez (incumbent) | 1,711,654 | 54.01% | -4.86% | |
Republican | Bob Hugin | 1,357,355 | 42.83% | +3.46% | |
Green | Madelyn Hoffman | 25,150 | 0.79% | +0.32% | |
Libertarian | Murray Sabrin | 21,212 | 0.67% | +0.17% | |
Independent | Natalie Rivera | 19,897 | 0.63% | N/A | |
Independent | Tricia Flanagan | 16,101 | 0.51% | N/A | |
Independent | Kevin Kimple | 9,087 | 0.29% | N/A | |
Independent | Hank Schroeder | 8,854 | 0.28% | N/A | |
Total votes | 3,169,310 | 100% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
County | Menendez % | Menendez votes | Hugin % | Hugin votes | Other % | Other votes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlantic | 47.43% | 44,617 | 48.85% | 45,954 | 3.72% | 3,502 |
Bergen | 54.69% | 188,235 | 42.54% | 146,406 | 2.77% | 9,542 |
Burlington | 52.78% | 98,749 | 43.96% | 82,240 | 3.26% | 6,111 |
Camden | 61.82% | 113,137 | 34.58% | 63,279 | 3.60% | 6,600 |
Cape May | 35.78% | 14,555 | 61.02% | 24,823 | 3.20% | 1,299 |
Cumberland | 48.29% | 19,386 | 47.93% | 19,244 | 3.78% | 1,517 |
Essex | 76.52% | 194,068 | 21.12% | 53,537 | 2.36% | 6,028 |
Gloucester | 46.41% | 52,303 | 49.77% | 56,090 | 3.82% | 4,309 |
Hudson | 76.35% | 132,180 | 20.84% | 36,087 | 2.81% | 4,863 |
Hunterdon | 39.29% | 24,823 | 57.17% | 36,116 | 3.54% | 2,195 |
Mercer | 63.67% | 80,773 | 32.50% | 41,225 | 3.83% | 4,785 |
Middlesex | 58.21% | 148,806 | 38.64% | 98,764 | 3.15% | 8,051 |
Monmouth | 42.99% | 112,383 | 53.79% | 140,628 | 3.22% | 8,408 |
Morris | 43.60% | 93,763 | 53.38% | 114,783 | 3.02% | 6,492 |
Ocean | 33.72% | 75,597 | 63.29% | 141,902 | 2.99% | 6,723 |
Passaic | 57.75% | 86,242 | 39.10% | 58,382 | 3.15% | 4,700 |
Salem | 38.04% | 9,060 | 57.47% | 13,687 | 4.49% | 1,068 |
Somerset | 51.67% | 70,359 | 45.07% | 61,373 | 3.26% | 4,450 |
Sussex | 33.23% | 20,229 | 61.96% | 37,720 | 4.81% | 2,926 |
Union | 64.22% | 117,937 | 33.09% | 60,758 | 2.69% | 4,938 |
Warren | 35.59% | 14,452 | 60.00% | 24,357 | 4.41% | 1,794 |
Menendez won 6 of 12 congressional districts. Hugin, however, won the remaining 6, including five won by Democrats.
District | Menendez | Hugin | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 58% | 38% | Donald Norcross |
2nd | 43% | 53% | Jeff Van Drew |
3rd | 44% | 52% | Andy Kim |
4th | 41% | 56% | Chris Smith |
5th | 47% | 50% | Josh Gottheimer |
6th | 56% | 41% | Frank Pallone |
7th | 46% | 51% | Tom Malinowski |
8th | 77% | 20% | Albio Sires |
9th | 64% | 33% | Bill Pascrell |
10th | 85% | 13% | Donald Payne Jr. |
11th | 47% | 50% | Mikie Sherrill |
12th | 63% | 34% | Bonnie Watson Coleman |
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