In a 2024 survey to AI researchers, "aggregated forecasts gave at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model." The chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.[3]
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