2028 Zimbabwean general election

Last updated

2028 Zimbabwean general election
Flag of Zimbabwe.svg
  2023 On or before 3 September 20282033 
 
Party ZANU–PF CCC

Incumbent President

Emmerson Mnangagwa
ZANU–PF




All 280 seats in the National Assembly
141 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderLast election
ZANU–PF Emmerson Mnangagwa 177
CCC Disputed103

60 of the 80 seats in the Senate
41 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderLast election
ZANU–PF Emmerson Mnangagwa 33
CCC Disputed27
Maps
Zimbabwe 2023 Constituencies Blank.svg
The election will be conducted using the constituencies laid out in the 2023 Delimitation Report

The 2028 Zimbabwean general election is scheduled to be held in 2028 in Zimbabwe to elect the president, members of the National Assembly and Senate, and local government officials. The elections are expected to be harmonised, meaning presidential, parliamentary, and local polls will occur simultaneously, as per the Constitution of Zimbabwe. Incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) is constitutionally ineligible to seek a third term, having been elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2023. However, ongoing discussions within ZANU–PF and the political arena have focused on potential constitutional amendments to extend Mnangagwa's tenure until 2030 or allow him to run again, potentially postponing or altering the electoral process. These proposals have sparked debates about democratic backsliding, opposition fragmentation, and the role of figures like Sengezo Tshabangu in shaping the political landscape. [1] [2]

Contents

Background

The previous general election was held on 23 August 2023, resulting in a victory for ZANU–PF and President Mnangagwa, who secured 52.6% of the presidential vote against main opposition candidate Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), who received 44.0%. ZANU–PF also won a majority in the National Assembly. The elections were marred by allegations of irregularities, voter suppression, and delays in urban areas, leading to criticism from international observers, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the European Union. [3] Post-election, Zimbabwe has faced economic challenges, including hyperinflation, currency instability, and efforts to abandon the US dollar by 2030, amid political tensions. [4]

Since 2023, internal divisions within ZANU–PF have intensified, particularly between factions loyal to Mnangagwa and those supporting Vice President Constantino Chiwenga. These rifts have influenced discussions on succession and term extensions. [5]

Electoral system

Zimbabwe operates under a mixed electoral system for the National Assembly, with 210 seats elected via first-past-the-post in single-member constituencies and 60 seats allocated to women and 10 seats allocated to youth through proportional representation based on party lists. The Senate consists of 80 members: 60 elected proportionally, 18 traditional chiefs, and 2 representing people with disabilities. The president is elected directly by absolute majority; if no candidate achieves over 50% in the first round, a runoff is held between the top two candidates.

Local elections for councils use a similar first-past-the-post system. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) oversees the process, although its independence has been questioned in past elections. [6]

Date

According to Section 158 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, general elections must be held every five years, with the next poll due no later than September 2028. However, proposals to amend the constitution could delay or cancel the elections, aligning with Mnangagwa's "Vision 2030" agenda. [7] In September 2025, Mnangagwa initially affirmed the 2028 timetable but later faced party resolutions to extend his term. [8] The precise latest date that the next election can take place is 3 September 2028. This is the latest possible polling day, which must occur not more than thirty days before the expiry of the five-year parliamentary term on 4 September 2028 (the fifth anniversary of President Mnangagwa's inauguration on 4 September 2023), and before the expiry date itself, in accordance with Section 158(1)(a) of the Constitution.

Potential candidates

ZANU-PF

Constantino Chiwenga

Within ZANU–PF, if Mnangagwa steps down, Vice President Chiwenga is seen as a frontrunner, though factional rivalries persist. In October 2025, Vice President Chiwenga authored and circulated a critical dossier accusing Mnangagwa's administration of systemic corruption, including claims that Tagwirei had diverted at least US$3.2 billion from ZANU–PF's treasury through opaque deals. [9] [10] [11] The document also lambasted Mnangagwa's push for term extensions under the "2030 Agenda," warning of authoritarian consolidation. [12] Within ZANU–PF, the dossier was met with fierce backlash; Mnangagwa and allies like spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa labeled it as treasonous and incitement, escalating intra-party turmoil and calls for Chiwenga's dismissal. [13] [14] [15] Nationally, it resonated amid public frustration with economic woes but drew mixed reactions, with critics seeing it as a bold anti-corruption stance while supporters of Mnangagwa dismissed it as a power grab. [16] The episode is broadly perceived as Chiwenga's maneuver to assert dominance in the succession race, positioning himself as the primary candidate for ZANU–PF's 2028 presidential ticket by opposing extensions and appealing to anti-corruption sentiments. [17] [18]

Kudakwashe Tagwirei

Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a prominent Zimbabwean businessman with significant interests in the energy, mining, and fuel sectors, has wielded considerable influence in national politics, often described as a key financier and ally to President Mnangagwa. [19] [20] Tagwirei, who has faced international sanctions from the United States and United Kingdom over allegations of corruption, was co-opted into ZANU–PF's Central Committee in 2025, a strategic move interpreted as bolstering Mnangagwa's control amid factional struggles. [21] Political discussions and analyses suggest Mnangagwa is grooming Tagwirei as a potential successor, potentially sidelining Vice President Chiwenga, whose once-close relationship with Tagwirei has deteriorated over disputes involving resource allocation and party influence. [22] [23] [24] This positioning has fueled tensions within ZANU–PF, with some viewing Tagwirei's rise as a shift toward business-oriented leadership over traditional military-backed figures.

Opposition

The opposition remains fragmented in 2025. The CCC, the main opposition party, has been weakened by internal recalls initiated by Tshabangu, leading to boycotts of by-elections and demands for electoral reforms. Nelson Chamisa resigned from CCC in January 2024, announcing plans for a new movement, but progress has been slow. [25] [26] While Chamisa may lead a new party, to date he has not made any commitments.

Other parties, like the Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai remnants, are marginal. Analysts note persistent divisions hinder effective challenge to ZANU–PF. [27] [28]

Potential constitutional amendments

Since early 2025, ZANU–PF has actively pursued constitutional changes to allow Mnangagwa a third term or extend his current mandate until 2030. The party's annual conference in October 2025 resolved to amend the constitution, citing the need for continuity in achieving economic goals. Critics argue this undermines the 2013 constitution's two-term limit, introduced after the Mugabe era. [29] [30]

These efforts have led to violence and intra-party tensions, with reports of assaults on dissenters. Opposition groups have vowed legal challenges, viewing the amendments as a power grab. [31]

Vision 2030 and political implications

Vision 2030 is Zimbabwe's national development strategy aiming for upper-middle-income status by 2030 through economic reforms, infrastructure, and innovation. Launched under Mnangagwa, it has been linked to his political longevity, with supporters arguing his leadership is essential for its success. The "2030 agenda" has become synonymous with term extension campaigns within ZANU–PF. [32] [33] Critics contend it masks authoritarian consolidation, with economic policies like de-dollarisation tied to political control. [34]

Discussions on cancelling or postponing the elections

Proposals to suspend or postpone the 2028 elections have emerged, ostensibly to focus on economic recovery and Vision 2030. Figures like Sengezo Tshabangu have lobbied for suspension, aligning with ZANU–PF interests. Exiled politicians and analysts have accused the regime of plotting to scrap the polls, potentially through a government of national unity or emergency measures. [35] [36] Mnangagwa has denied such plans, but party resolutions suggest otherwise. [37]

Role of Sengezo Tshabangu

Sengezo Tshabangu, a self-proclaimed CCC secretary-general, has played a controversial role in Zimbabwean politics. Since 2023, he has orchestrated recalls of CCC legislators, significantly weakening the opposition and allowing ZANU–PF to gain parliamentary seats without contests. In 2025, Tshabangu has advocated for suspending the 2028 elections, supporting Mnangagwa's extension and proposing a transitional authority. Critics accuse him of colluding with ZANU–PF to undermine democracy. [38] [39] [40]

See also

References

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