Air pollution forecasting

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Air pollution forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the composition of the air pollution in the atmosphere for a given location and time. An algorithm prediction of the pollutant concentrations can be translated into air quality index, same as actual measurements.

Contents

Countries and cities are given forecasts by state and local government organizations, as well as private companies like Airly, AirVisual, Aerostate, Ambee, BreezoMeter, PlumeLabs, and DRAXIS that provide air pollution forecasts.

Motivation

Air pollution is one of the world’s biggest problems, and it causes respiratory problems, lung diseases, and cardiovascular issues and can contribute to mental health issues and aggravate existing health conditions. It can cause depletion to planetary health equally. Therefore, reducing and making people aware of these problems caused by air pollution becomes essential.

With the accurate method of forecasting air pollution, it becomes easier to manage and mitigate the risks of air pollution and ensure a safe level of pollutant concentration in the region. It also helps assess risks to the environment and the climate caused by poor air quality standards. Accurate forecasting can also lead to ease in planning day-to-day activities, avoiding locations with high alert areas, and implementing effective pollution control measures.

Techniques

As with weather forecasting, air pollution forecasting involves the central idea of taking a current snapshot of the atmosphere and using computer simulation to predict what happens next. A typical algorithm uses the following components: [1]

The forecast temporally resolution is usually daily or hourly and the spatial resolution can change from block resolution to dozens of km resolution.

Most forecasts of air quality cover two to five days. [1]

Advanced approaches in air quality forecasting combine historical data with data generated via on-ground sensors and satellite observations to provide insights, analysis, and forecasts from global to street-level air pollution. It also takes into consideration local factors like traffic, regional weather patterns, or emissions in the atmosphere.

Challenges

Meteorological conditions such as thermal inversions can prevent surface air from rising, trapping pollutants near the surface, [6] which makes accurate forecasts of such events crucial for air quality modeling.

Urban air quality models require a very fine computational mesh, requiring the use of high-resolution mesoscale weather models; in spite of this, the quality of numerical weather guidance is the main uncertainty in air quality forecasts. [2]

Uses

By knowing the air quality forecast one can decide how to act, e.g. due to air pollution health effects, one can prepare ahead of time and choose the best time to do an outdoor activity.

See also

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References

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