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Anticipatory action is a form of humanitarian assistance that aims to save lives before a natural hazard (or other type of hazard) occurs or its impacts fully unfold. It is part of the disaster risk management cycle, bridging a critical gap between disaster preparedness and disaster response.
While anticipatory action takes different forms, there are common parameters to this approach: [1]
In 2024 anticipatory actions were implemented in 45 countries and for 17 types of hazards, with many more countries developing frameworks for different hazards. These actions reached over 17 million people and were supported by financing worth US$110.7m. [2]
Different countries and organizations take different approaches to anticipatory action. However, experience to date indicates that it works best when several core elements are agreed in advance, namely:
By acting ahead of a hazard, based on a forecast, it is possible to reduce the humanitarian needs caused by the hazard, leading to a reduced overall impact. [3] However, establishing these elements ahead of a hazard requires funding, time, resources and collaboration across sectors and between partners. Ideally, the process of setting up an anticipatory action system or framework should include stakeholders from the humanitarian and development sectors. For weather- and climate-related hazards, involvement by hydrometeorological services and/or the climate sector is also necessary. [4]
Theoretically, any financing for disaster management could be pre-arranged to support anticipatory action. To date, however, the majority of 'activations' – when a trigger threshold is reached, the framework is activated and the pre-agreed anticipatory actions are implemented – have been financed from three sources: the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund, the IFRC's Disaster Response Emergency Fund, and Start Network's Start Fund.
As more organizations include anticipatory action in their work, more diverse funding sources will be needed; the funding available for anticipatory action frameworks increased in 2023, but still comprised just 0.7% of total international humanitarian assistance in 2024. [5]
Benefits of anticipatory action include the fact that it helps to preserve people's dignity, provides value for money, and protects wider development gains. [6] It can also contribute to the broader sustainability of the humanitarian system by reducing humanitarian needs after a hazard and thereby saving costs. [7]
There are also sector-specific benefits. For example, an impact evaluation by the World Food Programme, of anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Nepal in 2022, indicated an overall net gain in food security for people targeted by the actions, as well as positive impacts on the coping strategies they used and their psychological wellbeing. [8]
Despite its positive impacts, there have been notable criticisms of anticipatory action:
These and other criticisms have been aired during events focused on this approach, such as the annual dialogue platforms on anticipatory action. [10]
Communities have been preparing for weather-related hazards, including through the use of forecasts (whether scientific or traditional), for centuries. However, the use of forecasts to trigger financing for humanitarian actions began in 2014, when the concept of forecast-based financing was conceptualized by humanitarian actors. [11] In 2015, the German Federal Foreign Office financed pilot projects in Togo and Uganda to test this principle, with the focusing being acting ahead of floods. [12]
Since then, a number of humanitarian organizations and non-governmental organizations have begun to implement this approach (which quickly became known as 'anticipatory action'), in more countries and for an increasing number of weather- and climate-related hazards. In 2024, at least 295 organizations and government ministries were involved in anticipatory action. [2]
Since 2020, there have been targeted efforts among humanitarian actors to involve governments in anticipatory action. This has led to increasing efforts to formalize anticipatory action as a disaster management approach. In 2024, the 'State of Imminent Disaster' was formally introduced in the Philippines, which allows the application of preventive actions before the striking of natural disasters, based on risk assessments by agencies such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. [13]
Another development in recent years has been projects that implement anticipatory actions ahead of non-weather events, such as disease outbreaks and epidemics, [14] while research is under way to explore the feasibility of this approach to mitigate the impacts of livestock diseases, locust swarms and population movement/displacement.