Blue-chip ratio in college football
In 2013, national recruiting analyst Bud Elliott created a concept known as the "Blue-Chip Ratio" (BCR), which calculates which college football teams have enough talent to win the national championship in any given season. Essentially, the Blue-Chip Ratio is the ratio of blue chips to non-blue chips a team signs over the previous four recruiting classes. Put more simply, it is the percentage of four-star and five-star players on a team. Furthermore, Elliott posits that teams need to have a Blue-Chip Ratio of at least 50% to be able to win a national championship. Since 2011, every national champion has had a BCR of 50% or higher. [6] [7] [8]
According to Elliott, the Blue-Chip Ratio has been referenced by all major broadcast networks and is closely monitored by head coaches and administrators. [9] It has also been covered and referenced by many other sports journalists. [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]
Busting the blue-chip ratio
Elliott has acknowledged: "I don't actually think that the Blue-Chip Ratio will hold forever. Standards are made to be broken." He posits that a team with 45-49% BCR, a transcendent QB, and great injury luck could eventually win a national championship. He has cited 2014 Oregon, 2015 Clemson, 2021 Cincinnati, 2022 TCU, and 2023 Florida State as examples of teams that came close to winning it all despite having a BCR less than 50%. [15] [16]
In fact, it is possible that a team has already busted the Blue-Chip Ratio. According to Elliott, "either due to data changing after the fact, via industry contraction/expansion/merger, or perhaps due to an error of my own, 2010 Auburn no longer seems to meet 50% in the BCR . . . while I am confident that Auburn did meet the threshold when I was back-testing the model a half-decade ago, I can no longer back it up with proof." [17]
Although the expanded twelve-team College Football Playoff will allow greater access to the playoff for less talented teams, the expansion will also require those less talented teams to win three or even four difficult games to win the national championship, possibly making it even more difficult for them to bust the ratio. [18]
For the 2024 season, Elliott believes that Tennessee (46% BCR) is the most likely candidate to bust the ratio. [19]
Transfers
Elliott does not include transfers in his calculations. Even with the transfer portal and the removal of transfer limitations in the early 2020s, national champions have not relied on outside players thus far. 2021 Georgia and 2022 Georgia made either few or no additions through the use of the portal. 2023 Michigan had nine transfers, regarded as important on the team, but most of the team was still recruited out of high school. The majority of transfers are used to fill holes in a roster, rather than adding talent. Most elite players are recruited out of high school and remain at the school with which they signed. [20] [21]
An analysis in 2023 showed that almost every top team's Blue-Chip Ratio decreased when including transfers. [22]
Blue-chip ratio by year
The following are lists of all the teams that had enough talent to win the national championship (BCR of 50% or higher) in recent seasons. Many Blue-Chip Ratios prior to 2014 are unreliable or unavailable, due to a lack of articles listing them, errors or discrepancies in older recruiting rankings, etc. [23] Elliott has listed Blue-Chip Ratios of several national champions before 2014, but not non-champions. Teams that won the national championship are highlighted in bold.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
- Florida State – 53% [31]
2014
Eleven teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2014 season. [32]
- Alabama – 73%
- Ohio State – 68%
- USC – 64%
- Notre Dame – 63%
- LSU – 62%
- Texas – 60%
- Florida State – 56%
- Michigan – 55%
- Florida – 54%
- Auburn – 53%
- Georgia – 51%
2015
Twelve teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2015 season. [33]
- Alabama – 77%
- USC – 70%
- Ohio State – 68%
- Notre Dame – 67%
- LSU – 61%
- Florida State – 60%
- Michigan – 59%
- Auburn – 56%
- Texas – 55%
- Texas A&M – 54%
- UCLA – 53%
- Georgia – 51%
2016
Thirteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2016 season. [34]
- Alabama – 77%
- USC – 70%
- Ohio State – 70%
- LSU – 66%
- Notre Dame – 63%
- Florida State – 60%
- Michigan – 59%
- Auburn – 57%
- UCLA – 55%
- Texas A&M – 53%
- Georgia – 52%
- Clemson – 52%
- Texas – 50%
2017
Ten teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2017 season. [35]
- Alabama – 80%
- Ohio State – 71%
- LSU – 65%
- Florida State – 65%
- Georgia – 63%
- USC – 63%
- Michigan – 61%
- Auburn – 59%
- Clemson – 56%
- Notre Dame – 56%
2018
Thirteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2018 season. [36]
- Alabama – 77%
- Ohio State – 76%
- USC – 71%
- Georgia – 69%
- Florida State – 67%
- LSU – 63%
- Auburn – 62%
- Clemson – 61%
- Michigan – 57%
- Texas – 55%
- Oklahoma – 53%
- Penn State – 53%
- Notre Dame – 51%
2019
Sixteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2019 season. [37]
- Ohio State – 81%
- Alabama – 80%
- Georgia – 79%
- LSU – 64%
- Florida State – 61%
- Clemson – 60%
- USC – 60%
- Penn State – 60%
- Michigan – 60%
- Texas – 60%
- Oklahoma – 60%
- Auburn – 58%
- Washington – 54%
- Notre Dame – 54%
- Florida – 53%
- Miami – 51%
2020
Fifteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2020 season. [38]
- Alabama – 83%
- Georgia – 82%
- Ohio State – 80%
- Texas – 64%
- LSU – 63%
- Oklahoma – 63%
- Clemson – 63%
- Florida – 63%
- Michigan – 59%
- Auburn – 59%
- Penn State – 59%
- Notre Dame – 56%
- Washington – 54%
- USC – 50%
- Texas A&M – 50%
2021
Sixteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2021 season. [39]
2022
Fifteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2022 season. [40]
- Alabama – 89%
- Ohio State – 80%
- Georgia – 77%
- Oklahoma – 71%
- Texas A&M – 70%
- Texas – 68%
- LSU – 66%
- Clemson – 63%
- Notre Dame – 62%
- Florida – 60%
- Oregon – 60%
- Michigan – 59%
- Penn State – 55%
- Miami – 55%
- Auburn – 54%
2023
Sixteen teams had enough talent to win the national championship during the 2023 season. [41]
2024
Sixteen teams have enough talent to win the national championship during the 2024 season. [42]
