The cyclical theory refers to a model used by historians Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. to explain the fluctuations in politics throughout American history. [1] [2] In this theory, the United States's national mood alternates between liberalism and conservatism. Each phase has characteristic features, and each phase is self-limiting, generating the other phase. This alternation has repeated itself several times over the history of the United States.
A similar theory for American foreign policy was proposed by historian Frank J. Klingberg. [3] He proposed that the United States has repeatedly alternated between foreign-policy extroversion and introversion, willingness to go on international adventures and unwillingness to do so.
Several other cycles of American history have been proposed, with varying degrees of support. [4]
From | To | Duration | Type | Name |
---|---|---|---|---|
1776 | 1788 | 12 | Lib | Liberal Movement to Create Constitution |
1788 | 1800 | 12 | Con | Hamiltonian Federalism |
1800 | 1812 | 12 | Lib | Liberal Period of Jeffersonianism |
1812 | 1829 | 17 | Con | Conservative Retreat After War of 1812 |
1829 | 1841 | 12 | Lib | Jacksonian Democracy |
1841 | 1861 | 20 | Con | Domination of National Government by Slaveowners |
1861 | 1869 | 8 | Lib | Abolition of Slavery and Reconstruction |
1869 | 1901 | 32 | Con | The Gilded Age |
1901 | 1919 | 18 | Lib | Progressive Era |
1919 | 1931 | 12 | Con | Republican Restoration |
1931 | 1947 | 16 | Lib | The New Deal |
1947 | 1962 | 15 | Con | |
1962 | 1978 | 16 | Lib | |
1978 | Con |
The features of each phase in the cycle can be summarized with a table. [1] [2] [6]
Liberal | Conservative |
---|---|
Wrongs of the Many | Rights of the Few |
Increase Democracy | Contain Democracy |
Public Purpose | Private Interest |
Human Rights | Property Rights |
The Schlesingers proposed that their cycles are "self-generating", meaning that each kind of phase generates the other kind of phase. This process then repeats, causing cycles. Arthur Schlesinger Jr. speculated on possible reasons for these transitions. [2] He speculated that since liberal phases involve bursts of reform effort, such bursts can be exhausting, and the body politic thus needs the rest of a conservative phase. He also speculates that conservative phases accumulate unsolved social problems, problems that require the efforts of a liberal phase. He also speculated on generational effects, since most of the liberal-conservative phase pairs are roughly 30 years long, roughly the length of a human generation.
The Schlesingers' identified phases end in a conservative period, and in a foreword written in 1999, Schlesinger Jr. speculated about why it has lasted unusually long, instead of ending in the early 1990s. One of his speculations was the continuing Computer Revolution, as disruptive as the earlier Industrial Revolution had been. Another of them was wanting a long rest after major national traumas. The 1860s Civil War and Reconstruction preceded the unusually-long Gilded Age, and the strife of the 1960s likewise preceded the recent unusually-long conservative period.
An alternative identification is due to Andrew S. McFarland. [7] He identifies the liberal phases as reform ones and conservative phases as business ones, and he additionally identifies transitions from the reform ones to the business ones. From his Figure 1,
Reform | Trans. | Business |
---|---|---|
1890's | ||
1901-14 | 1915-18 | 1919-33 |
1933-39 | 1940-48 | 1949-61 |
1961-74 | 1974-80 | 1980- |
Roughly agreeing with Schlesinger's identifications.
Historian Samuel P. Huntington has proposed that American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion". [4] [7] [8] [9] Huntington described the "American Creed" of government in these terms: "In terms of American beliefs, government is supposed to be egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups. Yet no government can be all these things and still remain a government." This contradiction produces an unavoidable gap between ideals and institutions, an "IvI" gap. This gap is normally tolerable, but it is a gap that sometimes leads to bursts of "creedal passion" against existing systems and institutions, bursts that typically last around 15 years. He identified four of them:
Huntington described 14 features of creedal-passion eras. [9] Nine of them describe the general mood:
The remaining five describe the resulting changes:
The United States has gone through several party systems, where in each system, the two main parties have characteristic platforms and constituencies. Likewise, the United States has had several realigning elections, elections that bring fast and large-scale changes. These events are mentioned here because their repeated occurrence may be interpreted as a kind of cycle.
Begin | End | System |
---|---|---|
1792 | 1824 | First Party System |
1828 | 1854 | Second Party System |
1856 | 1894 | Third Party System |
1896 | 1930 | Fourth Party System |
1932 | ? | Fifth Party System |
? | Sixth Party System |
Opinions differ on the timing of the transition from the fifth to the sixth systems, opinions ranging from the 1960's to the 1990's. Some political scientists argue that it was a gradual transition, one without any well-defined date.
Date | President |
---|---|
1800 | Thomas Jefferson |
1828 | Andrew Jackson |
1860 | Abraham Lincoln |
1896 | William McKinley |
1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |
Other dates sometimes cited are 1874, 1964, 1968, 1980, 1992, 1994, 2008, and 2016.
Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has proposed four main types of presidencies, and these types of presidencies also fit into a cycle. [4] [10] [11] [12] [13] He proposes that the United States has had several political regimes over its history, regimes with a characteristic cycle of presidency types. Each political regime has had a dominant party and an opposition party, and presidents can be in either the dominant party or the opposition party.
Dominant Party | President's Party | Type |
---|---|---|
Vulnerable | Opposition | Reconstruction |
Vulnerable | Dominant | Disjunction |
Resilient | Opposition | Preemption |
Resilient | Dominant | Articulation |
The cycle begins with a reconstruction president, one who typically serves more than one term. He establishes a new regime, and his party becomes the dominant one for that regime. He is usually succeeded by his vice president, his successor is usually an articulation one, and he usually serves only one term. This president is usually followed by a preemption president, and articulation and preemption presidents may continue to alternate. The cycle ends with one or more disjunction presidents, presidents who usually serve only one term.
Some of the presidency types have been inferred from party affiliation, and George Washington has been classified as a reconstruction president because he was the first one.
From | To | Duration | Type | Events |
---|---|---|---|---|
1776 | 1798 | 22 | Int | Revolution, establishment of government |
1798 | 1824 | 26 | Ext | French naval war, Louisiana Purchase, War of 1812 |
1824 | 1844 | 20 | Int | Nullification Crisis, Texas question |
1844 | 1871 | 27 | Ext | Texas and Oregon annexations, Mexican War, Civil War |
1871 | 1891 | 20 | Int | |
1891 | 1919 | 18 | Ext | Spanish-American War, World War I |
1919 | 1940 | 21 | Int | League of Nations rejections, Neutrality Acts |
1940 | 1967 | 27 | Ext | World War II, Cold War, Korean and Vietnam Wars |
1967 | 1987 | 20 | Int | Vietnamization, détente, dissolution of Soviet Union |
1987 | Ext | Post-Cold-War assertion, Gulf War, War on Terror |
Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. concluded that this cycle is not synchronized with the liberal-conservative cycle, and therefore that these two cycles have separate causes. [2]
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