Denise R. Osborn

Last updated

Denise R. Osborn
Born (1948-11-23) 23 November 1948 (age 75)
NationalityAustralian and British
Academic career
Institution
Field Econometric
Applied Time Series
Seasonality
Inflation
International Business Cycles
Macroeconomic Model
Alma mater

Denise Rae Osborn (born 23 November 1948) is an Australian and British economist who currently works as the Secretary-General at the Royal Economic Society and as an Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the University of Manchester. [1] [2] Her principal research interests have been in applied Time-Series modelling, particularly in seasonality in economic variables and dynamic modelling of macroeconomic relationships. Osborn has over 70 research publications in referred academic journals including Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , Journal of Econometrics , Journal of Applied Econometrics , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , and Journal of the American Statistical Association . [3]

Contents

Education

Denise R. Osborn attended the University of Sydney in 1966, completing the Bachelor of Economics with First Class Honours in 1970, and the Master of Economics in 1972. [3] After that, she left Australia and went to the United Kingdom. She attended the London School of Economics and obtained her PhD in econometrics under the supervision of Professor Kenneth Frank Wallis in 1976 with her thesis title: Time series analysis and dynamic specification in econometric models, with an application to the Australian wool market. [4]

Career

In 1972, Osborn started as a Teaching Fellow at the Department of Economic Statistics in the University of Sydney. While she was pursuing her PhD, she worked as a research Officer for the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London from 1975 to 1977. [3] After that, Osborn arrived at the University of Manchester and took up the role as a Lecturer in Econometrics from 1977 to 1989. [5] She was then promoted and worked as a Senior Lecturer from 1989 to 1992. [5] In 1992, Osborn became a Professor of Econometrics as she was awarded with a personal Chair, and four years later in 1996, she was promoted to the Robert Ottley Chair in Econometrics and became a Robert Ottley Professor of Econometrics. [6] In 2013, Osborn switched up the role and became a part-time Professor of Econometrics until 2015. Since then, she has been an Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the University of Manchester. [3] At the University of Manchester, Osborn has also held various of positions, including the Interim Head of the School of Social Sciences from September to December 2003, the Director of Research for the School of Economic Studies from 1994 to 1997, the Head of the School of Economic Studies from 1997 to 2002, and the Head of Economics from 2009 to 2011. [3] [5]

While primarily working at the University of Manchester, Osborn has had other visiting positions. In May 2004, she arrived at the Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in Monash University as an Academic Visitor. She was also the Adjunct Professor in the Department of Economics at Australian National University from July to September 2006. After, Osborn visited the School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania as a Visiting Fellow in 2012, and as a Visiting Professor from 2013 to 2016. [3]

External roles

Royal Economic Society (RES)

Osborn was the Conference Chair of RES in 1994, and from 1994 to 1999, she acted as a member of council and executive committee. [5] Osborn was the Inaugural Chair of Women's Committee the Council from 1996 to 1998. [7] In 1998, she became a member of the Conference of Heads of University Departments of Economics (CHUDE) steering Committee until 2003, and again in 2007. From 2004 to 2006, she participated as the Chairperson of CHUDE and she was also a member of Women's Committee from 2007 to 2011. [5] In 2015, Osborn took over the role as the Secretary-General at the Royal Economic Society, and she is the first woman Secretary-General since 1890. [1] [5]

Research Assessment Exercises (RAE)

Osborn participated at the UK Research Assessment Exercises 2001 (REA2001) as the Vice Chair and member of the Economics and Econometrics Panel. [8] In the UK RAE 2008, she was originally joined as member of both the Economics and Econometrics, and the Business and Management Studies Sub-Panel. [9] But later, due to the stepped down of Professor David Greenaway, Osborn became the Chair of Economics and Econometrics Sub-Panel and the member of Main Panel I. [10]

Osborn also participated at the Hong Kong Research Assessment Exercises in 2014, as a Deputy Panel Convenor of Business and Economics. [11]

Other

Research publications

Book

Selected refereed journals articles

Selected book chapters

Related Research Articles

Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference." An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships." Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics. The other, Ragnar Frisch, also coined the term in the sense in which it is used today.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lawrence Klein</span> American economist

Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.

Economic statistics is a topic in applied statistics and applied economics that concerns the collection, processing, compilation, dissemination, and analysis of economic data. It is closely related to business statistics and econometrics. It is also common to call the data themselves "economic statistics", but for this usage, "economic data" is the more common term.

Econometric models involving data sampled at different frequencies are of general interest. Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) is an econometric regression developed by Eric Ghysels with several co-authors. There is now a substantial literature on MIDAS regressions and their applications, including Ghysels, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2006), Ghysels, Sinko and Valkanov, Andreou, Ghysels and Kourtellos (2010) and Andreou, Ghysels and Kourtellos (2013).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Granger causality</span> Statistical hypothesis test for forecasting

The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting another, first proposed in 1969. Ordinarily, regressions reflect "mere" correlations, but Clive Granger argued that causality in economics could be tested for by measuring the ability to predict the future values of a time series using prior values of another time series. Since the question of "true causality" is deeply philosophical, and because of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of assuming that one thing preceding another can be used as a proof of causation, econometricians assert that the Granger test finds only "predictive causality". Using the term "causality" alone is a misnomer, as Granger-causality is better described as "precedence", or, as Granger himself later claimed in 1977, "temporally related". Rather than testing whether Xcauses Y, the Granger causality tests whether X forecastsY.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Henri Theil</span> Dutch econometrician (1924–2000)

Henri (Hans) Theil was a Dutch econometrician and professor at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam, known for his contributions to the field of econometrics.

The Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal published by the American Statistical Association. The journal covers a broad range of applied problems in business and economic statistics, including forecasting, seasonal adjustment, applied demand and cost analysis, applied econometric modeling, empirical finance, analysis of survey and longitudinal data related to business and economic problems, the impact of discrimination on wages and productivity, the returns to education and training, the effects of unionization, and applications of stochastic control theory to business and economic problems.

Seasonal adjustment or deseasonalization is a statistical method for removing the seasonal component of a time series. It is usually done when wanting to analyse the trend, and cyclical deviations from trend, of a time series independently of the seasonal components. Many economic phenomena have seasonal cycles, such as agricultural production, and consumer consumption. It is necessary to adjust for this component in order to understand underlying trends in the economy, so official statistics are often adjusted to remove seasonal components. Typically, seasonally adjusted data is reported for unemployment rates to reveal the underlying trends and cycles in labor markets.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eric Ghysels</span> Belgian economist (born 1956)

Eric Ghysels is a Belgian economist with interest in finance and time series econometrics, and in particular the fields of financial econometrics and financial technology. He is the Edward M. Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina and a Professor of Finance at the Kenan-Flagler Business School. He is also the Faculty Research Director of the Rethinc.Labs at the Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Structural break</span> Econometric term

In econometrics and statistics, a structural break is an unexpected change over time in the parameters of regression models, which can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model in general. This issue was popularised by David Hendry, who argued that lack of stability of coefficients frequently caused forecast failure, and therefore we must routinely test for structural stability. Structural stability − i.e., the time-invariance of regression coefficients − is a central issue in all applications of linear regression models.

The methodology of econometrics is the study of the range of differing approaches to undertaking econometric analysis.

Following the development of Keynesian economics, applied economics began developing forecasting models based on economic data including national income and product accounting data. In contrast with typical textbook models, these large-scale macroeconometric models used large amounts of data and based forecasts on past correlations instead of theoretical relations. These models estimated the relations between different macroeconomic variables using regression analysis on time series data. These models grew to include hundreds or thousands of equations describing the evolution of hundreds or thousands of prices and quantities over time, making computers essential for their solution. While the choice of which variables to include in each equation was partly guided by economic theory, variable inclusion was mostly determined on purely empirical grounds. Large-scale macroeconometric model consists of systems of dynamic equations of the economy with the estimation of parameters using time-series data on a quarterly to yearly basis.

Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of an economic indicator. The term is a portmanteau of "now" and "forecasting" and originates in meteorology. Typical measures used to assess the state of an economy, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or inflation, are only determined after a delay and are subject to revision. In these cases, nowcasting such indicators can provide an estimate of the variables before the true data are known. Nowcasting models have been applied most notably in Central Banks, who use the estimates to monitor the state of the economy in real-time as a proxy for official measures.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wim Driehuis</span> Dutch economist

Wim Driehuis is a Dutch economist, Emeritus Professor Economics and Business at the University of Amsterdam.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michael Keane (economist)</span> American/Australian economist (born 1961)

Michael Patrick Keane is an American-born economist; he is the Wm. Polk Carey Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University. Keane was previously a professor at the University of New South Wales and the Nuffield Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford. He is considered one of the world's leading experts in the fields of Choice Modelling, structural modelling, simulation estimation, and panel data econometrics.

Chris Brooks is Professor of Finance in the School of Accounting and Finance at the University of Bristol, United Kingdom.

Andrew Donald Roy was a British economist who is known for the Roy model of self-selection and income distribution and Roy's safety-first criterion.

Barbara Rossi is an ICREA professor of economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, a Barcelona GSE Research Professor, a CREI affiliated professor and a CEPR Fellow. She is a founding fellow of the International Association of Applied Econometrics, a fellow of the Econometric Society and a director of the International Association of Applied Econometrics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Agustín Maravall</span> Spanish economist (born 1944)

Agustín Maravall Herrero is a Spanish economist. He is known for his contributions to the analysis of statistics and econometrics, particularly in seasonal adjustment and the estimation of signals in economic time series. He created a methodology and several computer programs for such analysis that are used throughout the world by analysts, researchers, and data producers. Maravall retired in December 2014 from the Bank of Spain.

Jean-Pierre Florens is an influential French econometrician at Toulouse School of Economics. He is known for his research on Bayesian inference, econometrics of stochastic processes, causality, frontier estimation, and inverse problems.

References

  1. 1 2 "Executive Committee". www.res.org.uk. Retrieved 20 November 2019.
  2. ↑ "Search for people | The University of Manchester". directory.manchester.ac.uk. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Osborn, Denise R.. Curriculum vitae. November 2019.
  4. ↑ "Ken's PhDs". warwick.ac.uk. Retrieved 21 November 2019.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Women in Economics - a talk by Professor Denise Osborn , retrieved 24 November 2019
  6. ↑ "Conference in honour of Denise R Osborn". events.manchester.ac.uk. Retrieved 21 November 2019.
  7. ↑ Mitka, M. (2015). The 10th Royal Economic Society Women's Committee survey the gender balance of academic economics in the UK. Dep. of Economics and Related Studies, Univ. of York. OCLC   931974239.
  8. 1 2 3 Ghysels, Eric, 1956- (2001). The econometric analysis of seasonal time series. Cambridge University Press. ISBN   978-1-139-16400-9. OCLC   817913372.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  9. ↑ "RAE 2008 : Publications : 2007 : 03/2007 - RAE 2008: Membership of RAE2008 panels". www.rae.ac.uk. Retrieved 22 November 2019.
  10. ↑ "RAE 2008 : Publications : 2009 : RAE2008 procedural information". www.rae.ac.uk. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  11. ↑ "Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 2014". www.ugc.edu.hk. Retrieved 22 November 2019.
  12. ↑ Engagement, Crawford; rsvp.crawford@anu.edu.au. "Denise Osborn". Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. Retrieved 22 November 2019.
  13. ↑ "People - The University of Nottingham". www.nottingham.ac.uk. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  14. ↑ "Discover the members of the Essex Centre for Macro and Financial Econometrics | University of Essex". www.essex.ac.uk. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  15. ↑ Methodology (19 March 2010). "GSS methodology advisory committee (MAC) members". Office for National Statistics. Archived from the original on 8 January 2016. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  16. ↑ Hindrayanto, Irma; Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.; Osborn, Denise R.; Tian, Jing (December 2019). "Trend–Cycle–Seasonal Interactions: Identification and Estimation" (PDF). Macroeconomic Dynamics. 23 (8): 3163–3188. doi:10.1017/S1365100517001092. ISSN   1365-1005. S2CID   145041549.
  17. ↑ Bataa, Erdenebat; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne (August 2018). "China's increasing global influence: Changes in international growth linkages". Economic Modelling. 74: 194–206. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.014 .
  18. ↑ Hall, Alastair R.; Osborn, Denise R.; Sakkas, Nikolaos (21 October 2017). "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points". Econometric Reviews. 36 (6–9): 667–698. doi: 10.1080/07474938.2017.1307523 . ISSN   0747-4938.
  19. ↑ Altansukh, Gantungalag; Becker, Ralf; Bratsiotis, George; Osborn, Denise R. (January 2017). "What is the globalisation of inflation?" (PDF). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 74: 1–27. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2016.09.006. S2CID   62814687.
  20. ↑ Bataa, Erdenebat; Izzeldin, Marwan; Osborn, Denise R. (May 2016). "Changes in the global oil market" (PDF). Energy Economics. 56: 161–176. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.009.
  21. ↑ Hall, Alastair R.; Osborn, Denise R.; Sakkas, Nikolaos (22 January 2015). "Structural Break Inference Using Information Criteria in Models Estimated by Two-Stage Least Squares" (PDF). Journal of Time Series Analysis. 36 (5): 741–762. doi:10.1111/jtsa.12107. hdl: 10.1111/jtsa.12107 . ISSN   0143-9782. S2CID   55012382.
  22. ↑ Osborn, Denise R.; Vehbi, Tugrul (February 2015). "Growth in China and the US: Effects on a small commodity exporter economy". Economic Modelling. 45: 268–277. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.046. ISSN   0264-9993.
  23. ↑ del Barrio Castro, Tomás; Osborn, Denise R.; Taylor, A.M. Robert (13 August 2014). "The Performance of Lag Selection and Detrending Methods for HEGY Seasonal Unit Root Tests" (PDF). Econometric Reviews. 35 (1): 122–168. doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.807710. ISSN   0747-4938. S2CID   55543671.
  24. ↑ Dungey, Mardi; Osborn, Denise; Raghavan, Mala (11 June 2014). "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area". Economic Record. 90 (291): 421–446. doi:10.1111/1475-4932.12137. ISSN   0013-0249. S2CID   154544443.
  25. ↑ Dungey, Mardi; Osborn, Denise R. (April 2014). "Modelling Large Open Economies with International Linkages: The USA and Euro Area". Journal of Applied Econometrics. 29 (3): 377–393. doi:10.1002/jae.2323.
  26. ↑ Bataa, Erdenebat; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne; Dijk, Dick van (June 2014). "Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation*: Identifying changes in mean, seasonality, persistence and volatility" (PDF). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 76 (3): 360–388. doi:10.1111/obes.12021. S2CID   1531079.
  27. ↑ Hall, Alastair R.; Osborn, Denise R.; Sakkas, Nikolaos (October 2013). "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria: Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria" (PDF). The Manchester School. 81: 54–81. doi: 10.1111/manc.12017 . S2CID   154703864.
  28. ↑ Bataa, Erdenebat; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne; van Dijk, Dick (May 2013). "Structural Breaks in the International Dynamics of Inflation". Review of Economics and Statistics. 95 (2): 646–659. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00261. ISSN   0034-6535. S2CID   55276643.
  29. ↑ Halunga, Andreea G.; Osborn, Denise R. (November 2012). "Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence". Journal of Econometrics. 171 (1): 24–31. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.024 . ISSN   0304-4076. PMC   3688333 . PMID   23805022.
  30. ↑ Becker, Ralf; Osborn, Denise R.; Yildirim, Dilem (November 2012). "A threshold cointegration analysis of interest rate pass-through to UK mortgage rates". Economic Modelling. 29 (6): 2504–2513. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.004 . ISSN   0264-9993.
  31. ↑ Ghysels, Eric; Osborn, Denise R.; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. (2006), "Chapter 13 Forecasting Seasonal Time Series", Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1, pp. 659–711, doi:10.1016/s1574-0706(05)01013-x, ISBN   978-0-444-51395-3
  32. ↑ Kesriyeli, Mehtap; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne (2006), "Chapter 11 Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany", Contributions to Economic Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 276, pp. 283–310, doi:10.1016/s0573-8555(05)76011-9, ISBN   978-0-444-51838-5
  33. ↑ Osborn, Denise R. (1 January 2004), "Unit-Root Versus Deterministic Representations of Seasonality for Forecasting", in Clements, Michael P.; Hendry, David F. (eds.), A Companion to Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, pp. 409–431, doi:10.1002/9780470996430.ch18, ISBN   978-0-470-99643-0
  34. ↑ Ghysels, Eric; Osborn, Denise R.; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. (1 January 2003), Baltagi, Badi H. (ed.), "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity" (PDF), A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, pp. 655–677, doi:10.1002/9780470996249.ch32, ISBN   978-0-470-99624-9
  35. ↑ Simpson, Paul W.; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne (September 2001). "Forecasting UK industrial production over the business cycle" (PDF). Journal of Forecasting. 20 (6): 405–424. doi:10.1002/for.797. ISSN   0277-6693.
  36. ↑ Osborn, Denise (5 February 2018), "An Investigation into Quarterly Crime and its Relationship to the Economy", in MacDonald, Ziggy; Pyle, David (eds.), Illicit Activity (1 ed.), Routledge, pp. 75–101, doi:10.4324/9781315185194-5, ISBN   978-1-315-18519-4
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.