The likelihood function describes the joint probability of the observed data as a function of the parameters of the chosen statistical model. For each specific parameter value in the parameter space, the likelihood function therefore assigns a probabilistic prediction to the observed data . Since it is essentially the product of sampling densities, the likelihood generally encapsulates both the data-generating process as well as the missing-data mechanism that produced the observed sample.
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference.
In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-square distribution are special cases of the gamma distribution. There are two different parameterizations in common use:
- With a shape parameter k and a scale parameter θ.
- With a shape parameter α = k and an inverse scale parameter β = 1/θ, called a rate parameter.
In probability and statistics, an exponential family is a parametric set of probability distributions of a certain form, specified below. This special form is chosen for mathematical convenience, based on some useful algebraic properties, as well as for generality, as exponential families are in a sense very natural sets of distributions to consider. The term exponential class is sometimes used in place of "exponential family", or the older term Koopman–Darmois family. The terms "distribution" and "family" are often used loosely: specifically, an exponential family is a set of distributions, where the specific distribution varies with the parameter; however, a parametric family of distributions is often referred to as "a distribution", and the set of all exponential families is sometimes loosely referred to as "the" exponential family. They are distinct because they possess a variety of desirable properties, most importantly the existence of a sufficient statistic.
In information geometry, the Fisher information metric is a particular Riemannian metric which can be defined on a smooth statistical manifold, i.e., a smooth manifold whose points are probability measures defined on a common probability space. It can be used to calculate the informational difference between measurements.
In statistics, the score is the gradient of the log-likelihood function with respect to the parameter vector. Evaluated at a particular point of the parameter vector, the score indicates the steepness of the log-likelihood function and thereby the sensitivity to infinitesimal changes to the parameter values. If the log-likelihood function is continuous over the parameter space, the score will vanish at a local maximum or minimum; this fact is used in maximum likelihood estimation to find the parameter values that maximize the likelihood function.
In mathematical statistics, the Fisher information is a way of measuring the amount of information that an observable random variable X carries about an unknown parameter θ of a distribution that models X. Formally, it is the variance of the score, or the expected value of the observed information. In Bayesian statistics, the asymptotic distribution of the posterior mode depends on the Fisher information and not on the prior. The role of the Fisher information in the asymptotic theory of maximum-likelihood estimation was emphasized by the statistician Ronald Fisher. The Fisher information is also used in the calculation of the Jeffreys prior, which is used in Bayesian statistics.
In mathematical statistics, the Kullback–Leibler divergence, denoted , is a type of statistical distance: a measure of how one probability distribution P is different from a second, reference probability distribution Q. A simple interpretation of the KL divergence of P from Q is the expected excess surprise from using Q as a model when the actual distribution is P. While it is a distance, it is not a metric, the most familiar type of distance: it is not symmetric in the two distributions, and does not satisfy the triangle inequality. Instead, in terms of information geometry, it is a type of divergence, a generalization of squared distance, and for certain classes of distributions, it satisfies a generalized Pythagorean theorem.
Time consistency in the context of finance is the property of not having mutually contradictory evaluations of risk at different points in time. This property implies that if investment A is considered riskier than B at some future time, then A will also be considered riskier than B at every prior time.
In information theory, the Rényi entropy generalizes the Hartley entropy, the Shannon entropy, the collision entropy and the min-entropy. Entropies quantify the diversity, uncertainty, or randomness of a system. The entropy is named after Alfréd Rényi, who looked for the most general definition of information measures that preserve additivity for independent events. In the context of fractal dimension estimation, the Rényi entropy forms the basis of the concept of generalized dimensions.
In information theory, the cross-entropy between two probability distributions and over the same underlying set of events measures the average number of bits needed to identify an event drawn from the set if a coding scheme used for the set is optimized for an estimated probability distribution , rather than the true distribution .
In statistics and information theory, a maximum entropy probability distribution has entropy that is at least as great as that of all other members of a specified class of probability distributions. According to the principle of maximum entropy, if nothing is known about a distribution except that it belongs to a certain class, then the distribution with the largest entropy should be chosen as the least-informative default. The motivation is twofold: first, maximizing entropy minimizes the amount of prior information built into the distribution; second, many physical systems tend to move towards maximal entropy configurations over time.
In the fields of actuarial science and financial economics there are a number of ways that risk can be defined; to clarify the concept theoreticians have described a number of properties that a risk measure might or might not have. A coherent risk measure is a function that satisfies properties of monotonicity, sub-additivity, homogeneity, and translational invariance.
In information theory and statistics, Kullback's inequality is a lower bound on the Kullback–Leibler divergence expressed in terms of the large deviations rate function. If P and Q are probability distributions on the real line, such that P is absolutely continuous with respect to Q, i.e. P << Q, and whose first moments exist, then
In macroeconomics, the cost of business cycles is the decrease in social welfare, if any, caused by business cycle fluctuations.
In financial mathematics, acceptance set is a set of acceptable future net worth which is acceptable to the regulator. It is related to risk measures.
In quantum information theory, the Wehrl entropy, named after Alfred Wehrl, is a classical entropy of a quantum-mechanical density matrix. It is a type of quasi-entropy defined for the Husimi Q representation of the phase-space quasiprobability distribution. See for a comprehensive review of basic properties of classical, quantum and Wehrl entropies, and their implications in statistical mechanics.
In financial mathematics and stochastic optimization, the concept of risk measure is used to quantify the risk involved in a random outcome or risk position. Many risk measures have hitherto been proposed, each having certain characteristics. The entropic value at risk (EVaR) is a coherent risk measure introduced by Ahmadi-Javid, which is an upper bound for the value at risk (VaR) and the conditional value at risk (CVaR), obtained from the Chernoff inequality. The EVaR can also be represented by using the concept of relative entropy. Because of its connection with the VaR and the relative entropy, this risk measure is called "entropic value at risk". The EVaR was developed to tackle some computational inefficiencies of the CVaR. Getting inspiration from the dual representation of the EVaR, Ahmadi-Javid developed a wide class of coherent risk measures, called g-entropic risk measures. Both the CVaR and the EVaR are members of this class.
A Stein discrepancy is a statistical divergence between two probability measures that is rooted in Stein's method. It was first formulated as a tool to assess the quality of Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers, but has since been used in diverse settings in statistics, machine learning and computer science.
