Equifinality is the principle that in open systems a given end state can be reached by many potential means. The term and concept is due to the German Hans Driesch, the developmental biologist, later applied by the Austrian Ludwig von Bertalanffy, the founder of general systems theory, and by William T. Powers, the founder of perceptual control theory. Driesch and von Bertalanffy prefer this term, in contrast to "goal", in describing complex systems' similar or convergent behavior. Powers simply emphasised the flexibility of response, since it emphasizes that the same end state may be achieved via many different paths or trajectories.
In closed systems, a direct cause-and-effect relationship exists between the initial condition and the final state of the system: When a computer's 'on' switch is pushed, the system powers up. Open systems (such as biological and social systems), however, operate quite differently. The idea of equifinality suggests that similar results may be achieved with different initial conditions and in many different ways. [1] This phenomenon has also been referred to as isotelesis [2] (from Greek ἴσος isos "equal" and τέλεσις telesis: "the intelligent direction of effort toward the achievement of an end") when in games involving superrationality.
In business, equifinality implies that firms may establish similar competitive advantages based on substantially different competencies.
In psychology, equifinality refers to how different early experiences in life (e.g., parental divorce, physical abuse, parental substance abuse) can lead to similar outcomes (e.g., childhood depression). In other words, there are many different early experiences that can lead to the same psychological disorder.
In archaeology, equifinality refers to how different historical processes may lead to a similar outcome or social formation. For example, the development of agriculture or the bow and arrow occurred independently in many different areas of the world, yet for different reasons and through different historical trajectories. This highlights that generalizations based on cross-cultural comparisons cannot be made uncritically.
In Earth and environmental Sciences, two general types of equifinality are distinguished: process equifinality (concerned with real-world open systems) and model equifinality (concerned with conceptual open systems). [3] For example, process equifinality in geomorphology indicates that similar landforms might arise as a result of quite different sets of processes. Model equifinality refers to a condition where distinct configurations of model components (e.g. distinct model parameter values) can lead to similar or equally acceptable simulations (or representations of the real-world process of interest). This similarity or equal acceptability is conditional on the objective functions and criteria of acceptability defined by the modeler. While model equifinality has various facets, model parameter and structural equifinality are mostly known and focused in modeling studies. [3] Equifinality (particularly parameter equifinality) and Monte Carlo experiments are the foundation of the GLUE method that was the first generalised method for uncertainty assessment in hydrological modeling. [4] GLUE is now widely used within and beyond environmental modeling.
Hydrology is the scientific study of the movement, distribution, and management of water on Earth and other planets, including the water cycle, water resources, and drainage basin sustainability. A practitioner of hydrology is called a hydrologist. Hydrologists are scientists studying earth or environmental science, civil or environmental engineering, and physical geography. Using various analytical methods and scientific techniques, they collect and analyze data to help solve water related problems such as environmental preservation, natural disasters, and water management.
Systems theory is the transdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or artificial. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, defined by its structure, function and role, and expressed through its relations with other systems. A system is "more than the sum of its parts" by expressing synergy or emergent behavior.
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. A related practice is uncertainty analysis, which has a greater focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty; ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem.
Robert Bolesław Zajonc was a Polish-born American social psychologist who is known for his decades of work on a wide range of social and cognitive processes. One of his most important contributions to social psychology is the mere-exposure effect. Zajonc also conducted research in the areas of social facilitation, and theories of emotion, such as the affective neuroscience hypothesis.
Robert Elmer Horton was an American hydrologist, geomorphologist, civil engineer, and soil scientist, considered by many to be the father of modern American hydrology. An eponymous medal is awarded by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) to recognize outstanding contributions to the field of hydrological geophysics. The AGU Hydrology section was formed largely due to his personal property that was bequeathed to AGU.
The Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) is used to assess the predictive skill of hydrological models. It is defined as:
The dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory is a formal metabolic theory which provides a single quantitative framework to dynamically describe the aspects of metabolism of all living organisms at the individual level, based on assumptions about energy uptake, storage, and utilization of various substances. The DEB theory adheres to stringent thermodynamic principles, is motivated by universally observed patterns, is non-species specific, and links different levels of biological organization as prescribed by the implications of energetics. Models based on the DEB theory have been successfully applied to over a 1000 species with real-life applications ranging from conservation, aquaculture, general ecology, and ecotoxicology. The theory is contributing to the theoretical underpinning of the emerging field of metabolic ecology.
An hydrological transport model is a mathematical model used to simulate the flow of rivers, streams, groundwater movement or drainage front displacement, and calculate water quality parameters. These models generally came into use in the 1960s and 1970s when demand for numerical forecasting of water quality and drainage was driven by environmental legislation, and at a similar time widespread access to significant computer power became available. Much of the original model development took place in the United States and United Kingdom, but today these models are refined and used worldwide.
The HBV hydrology model, or Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model, is a computer simulation used to analyze river discharge and water pollution. Developed originally for use in Scandinavia, this hydrological transport model has also been applied in a large number of catchments on most continents.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head-on crash with another car: even if the speed was exactly known, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc., will lead to different results that can only be predicted in a statistical sense.
Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a statistical method used in hydrology for quantifying the uncertainty of model predictions. The method was introduced by Keith Beven and Andrew Binley in 1992. The basic idea of GLUE is that given our inability to represent exactly in a mathematical model how nature works, there will always be several different models that mimic equally well an observed natural process. Such equally acceptable or behavioral models are therefore called equifinal.
Groundwater models are computer models of groundwater flow systems, and are used by hydrologists and hydrogeologists. Groundwater models are used to simulate and predict aquifer conditions.
A hydrologic model is a simplification of a real-world system that aids in understanding, predicting, and managing water resources. Both the flow and quality of water are commonly studied using hydrologic models.
FEHM is a groundwater model that has been developed in the Earth and Environmental Sciences Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory over the past 30 years. The executable is available free at the FEHM Website. The capabilities of the code have expanded over the years to include multiphase flow of heat and mass with air, water, and CO2, methane hydrate, plus multi-component reactive chemistry and both thermal and mechanical stress. Applications of this code include simulations of: flow and transport in basin scale groundwater systems , migration of environmental isotopes in the vadose zone, geologic carbon sequestration, oil shale extraction, geothermal energy, migration of both nuclear and chemical contaminants, methane hydrate formation, seafloor hydrothermal circulation, and formation of karst. The simulator has been used to generate results for more than 100 peer reviewed publications which can be found at FEHM Publications.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to hydrology:
In hydrology, routing is a technique used to predict the changes in shape of a hydrograph as water moves through a river channel or a reservoir. In flood forecasting, hydrologists may want to know how a short burst of intense rain in an area upstream of a city will change as it reaches the city. Routing can be used to determine whether the pulse of rain reaches the city as a deluge or a trickle.
The topographic wetness index (TWI), also known as the compound topographic index (CTI), is a steady state wetness index. It is commonly used to quantify topographic control on hydrological processes. The index is a function of both the slope and the upstream contributing area per unit width orthogonal to the flow direction. The index was designed for hillslope catenas. Accumulation numbers in flat areas will be very large, so TWI will not be a relevant variable. The index is highly correlated with several soil attributes such as horizon depth, silt percentage, organic matter content, and phosphorus. Methods of computing this index differ primarily in the way the upslope contributing area is calculated.
Keith John Beven is a British hydrologist and distinguished emeritus professor in hydrology at Lancaster University. According to Lancaster University he is the most highly cited hydrologist.
Sensitivity analysis studies the relationship between the output of a model and its input variables or assumptions. Historically, the need for a role of sensitivity analysis in modelling, and many applications of sensitivity analysis have originated from environmental science and ecology.
Ezio Todini is an Italian academic, hydrologist and civil engineer.