Forecasting (heating)

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Forecasting is a method of controlling building heating by calculating demand for heating energy that should be supplied to the building in each time unit. By combining physics of structures with meteorology, properties of the building, weather conditions including outdoor temperature, wind power and direction, as well as solar radiation can be taken into account. In the case of conventional heating control, only current outdoor temperature is considered.

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The starting point for developing the method of forecasting was the ENLOSS mathematical energy balance model developed by Prof. Roger Taesler [1] from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in cooperation with Thorbjörn Geiser and Stefan Berglund, [2] who are currently both employed at eGain Sweden AB. Forecasting method began to be introduced to use in the late 1980s.

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Swedish administrative authority

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is a Government agency in Sweden and operates under the Ministry of the Environment. SMHI has expertise within the areas of meteorology, hydrology and oceanography, and has extensive service and business operations within these areas.

Until 2010 inclusive, forecasting method has been introduced in nearly seven million square metres of floorage of residential buildings and commercial premises. Forecasting method is offered and developed by many companies and organizations. Estimated data indicate 10 - 15 kWh/m2 reduction of average annual heat energy consumption. Since forecasting method contains information about future demand and is not in conflict with other methods of increasing energy efficiency, it is always a good foreground solution. [3]

Forecasting in practice

As far as practical use of forecasting method is concerned, usually remote control forecasting receivers are used to send and receive data by means of GPRS or GSM network. Then, the forecasting receivers manage the operation of control panels installed in buildings which adjust distribution of heat energy in the heating system of a given property.

GSM standard to describe protocols for second generation digital cellular networks used by mobile phones

The Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) is a standard developed by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) to describe the protocols for second-generation (2G) digital cellular networks used by mobile devices such as mobile phones and tablets. It was first deployed in Finland in December 1991.By the mid-2010s, it became a global standard for mobile communications achieving over 90% market share, and operating in over 193 countries and territories.

Heat energy transfer process, or its amount (and direction), that is associated with a temperature difference

In thermodynamics, heat is energy in transfer to or from a thermodynamic system, by mechanisms other than thermodynamic work or transfer of matter. The mechanisms include conduction, through direct contact of immobile bodies, or through a wall or barrier that is impermeable to matter; or radiation between separated bodies; or isochoric mechanical work done by the surroundings on the system of interest; or Joule heating by an electric current driven through the system of interest by an external system; or a combination of these. When there is a suitable path between two systems with different temperatures, heat transfer occurs necessarily, immediately, and spontaneously from the hotter to the colder system. Thermal conduction occurs by the stochastic (random) motion of microscopic particles. In contrast, thermodynamic work is defined by mechanisms that act macroscopically and directly on the system's whole-body state variables; for example, change of the system's volume through a piston's motion with externally measurable force; or change of the system's internal electric polarization through an externally measurable change in electric field. The definition of heat transfer does not require that the process be in any sense smooth. For example, a bolt of lightning may transfer heat to a body.

A heating system is a mechanism for maintaining temperatures at an acceptable level; by using thermal energy within a home, office, or other dwelling. Often part of an HVAC system. A heating system may be a central heating system or distributed.

Recently, special remote control weather loggers have started to be used in combination with forecasting receivers. The weather loggers measure air temperature and humidity with high accuracy and the measurements are sent in real time to forecasting receivers to which they are connected. Such a turning point in technology indicates even higher precision of forecasting method.

Temperature physical property of matter that quantitatively expresses the common notions of hot and cold

Temperature is a physical quantity expressing hot and cold. It is measured with a thermometer calibrated in one or more temperature scales. The most commonly used scales are the Celsius scale, Fahrenheit scale, and Kelvin scale. The kelvin is the unit of temperature in the International System of Units (SI). The Kelvin scale is widely used in science and technology.

Humidity amount of water vapor in the air

Humidity is the concentration of water vapour present in air. Water vapour, the gaseous state of water, is generally invisible to the human eye. Humidity indicates the likelihood for precipitation, dew, or fog to be present. The amount of water vapour needed to achieve saturation increases as the temperature increases. As the temperature of a parcel of air decreases it will eventually reach the saturation point without adding or losing water mass. The amount of water vapour contained within a parcel of air can vary significantly. For example, a parcel of air near saturation may contain 28 grams of water per cubic metre of air at 30 °C, but only 8 grams of water per cubic metre of air at 8 °C.

Notes

  1. Taesler, R. (1990/91) "Climate and Building Energy Management". Energy and Buildings, Vol. 15-16, pp 599 - 608.
  2. United States Patent 6098893 "Comfort control system incorporating weather forecast data and a method for operating such a system" (Inventor Stefan Berglund)
  3. Sasic Kaligasidis, A et al. (2006) "Upgraded weather forecast control of building heating systems". p. 951 ff in Research in Building Physics and Building Engineering Paul Fazio (Editorial Staff), ISBN   0-415-41675-2

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Egain forecasting is a method of controlling building heating by calculating demand for heating energy that should be supplied to the building in each time unit. By combining physics of structures with meteorology, properties of the building, weather conditions including outdoor temperature, wind power and direction, as well as solar radiation can be taken into account. In the case of conventional heating control, only current outdoor temperature is considered.

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Solar power forecasting involves knowledge of the Sun´s path, the atmosphere's condition, the scattering processes and the characteristics of a solar energy plant which utilizes the Sun's energy to create solar power. Solar photovoltaic systems transform solar energy into electric power. The power output depends on the incoming radiation and on the solar panel characteristics. Photovoltaic power production is increasing nowadays. Forecast information is essential for an efficient use, the management of the electricity grid and for solar energy trading. Common solar forecasting method include stochastic learning method, local and remote sensing method, and hybrid method.

References

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