Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
Richard Slaughter is a scholar and writer in the field of futures studies, applied foresight and social innovation. He is the co-director of Foresight International, and has guest edited the journals Futures and foresight. His work has centred on developing the theory and practice of futures in education; the transition from empirical to critical futures work; bringing Integral theory into futures, and working with others to stimulate effective responses to what he regards as a "global emergency" created, in part, by the confluence of peak oil and global warming.
The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 to validate the competencies of emerging futurists. As analysts, speakers, managers or consultants, APF's credentialed members cultivate strategic foresight for their organizations and clients. APF represents the professional side of the futures movement, while groups such as the World Futures Studies Federation, the World Future Society or The Millennium Project, represent its academic, popular, and activists expressions, respectively.
Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) is a research centre based at University of Sussex in Falmer, near Brighton, UK. It focuses on long term transformative change, science policy and innovation across different sectors, societies and structures. It was one of the first interdisciplinary research centres in the field of science and technology policy and at the forefront of the development of innovation as an academic discipline. Alongside internationally renowned research, SPRU also offers a range of MSc courses, as well as PhD research degrees.
The Government Office for Science is a science advisory office in the UK Government. The office advises the Government on policy and decision-making based on science and long-term thinking. It has been led by Professor Dame Angela McLean, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, since 23 February 2023.
Luke Georghiou is Deputy President and Deputy Vice-Chancellor at the University of Manchester. He is also professor of science and technology policy and management at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research at Manchester Business School.
The McGuinness Institute Te Hononga Waka is a non-partisan think tank based in Wellington, New Zealand, working towards a sustainable future, contributing strategic foresight through evidence-based research and policy analysis. Established in 2004 by Wendy McGuinness, the Institute endeavours to undertake research that is independent, innovative and relevant, in a professional manner. Previously the Sustainable Future Institute, it changed its name in February 2012.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which
Corporate foresight has been conceptualised by strategic foresight practitioners and academics working and/or studying corporations as a set of practices, a set of capabilities and an ability of a firm. It enables firms to detect discontinuous change early, interpret its consequences for the firm, and inform future courses of action to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.
Sohail Inayatullah is a Pakistani-born Australian academic, futures studies researcher and a professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, Taiwan.
Systemic design is an interdiscipline that joins systems thinking to design methodology, integrating systems thinking and human-centred design. The intention of systemic design is to help anybody designing products, services or systems cope with complexity and identify interventions and leverage points that results in the intended systemic change. The recent challenges to design coming from the increased complexity caused by globalization, migration, and sustainability render traditional design methods insufficient. Designers need better ways to design responsibly and avoid unintended side effects. Systemic design intends to develop methodologies and approaches that help to integrate systems thinking with design towards sustainability at the environmental, social and economic levels. It is a pluralistic initiative where many different approaches are encouraged to thrive and where dialogue and organic development of new practices are central.
Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.
Andy Hines is an American futurist, head of graduate studies in Foresight at the University of Houston, and author of several books on strategic foresight. Hines is a professional futurist, co-creator of the framework foresight method, Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Foresight at the University of Houston, Principal of foresight consulting firm Hinesight, and former organizational futurist at Kellogg Company and Dow Chemical. He has written extensively on futures studies, strategic foresight, foresight research methods, the role of organizational futurists, and the consumer landscape.
Noah Raford is an American futurist and specialist in public policy, strategy and emerging technologies. He is a founding executive of the Dubai Future Foundation and the Museum of the Future, and is currently the Futurist-in-Chief and Chief of Global Affairs at the Dubai Future Foundation. He was responsible for several global and regional firsts, including the world's first fully functional 3D printed building and the first blockchain strategy in the MENA region.
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety.
