Guess value

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In mathematical modeling, a guess value is more commonly called a starting value or initial value. These are necessary for most optimization problems which use search algorithms, because those algorithms are mainly deterministic and iterative, and they need to start somewhere. One common type of application is nonlinear regression.

In computer science, a deterministic algorithm is an algorithm which, given a particular input, will always produce the same output, with the underlying machine always passing through the same sequence of states. Deterministic algorithms are by far the most studied and familiar kind of algorithm, as well as one of the most practical, since they can be run on real machines efficiently.

Nonlinear regression

In statistics, nonlinear regression is a form of regression analysis in which observational data are modeled by a function which is a nonlinear combination of the model parameters and depends on one or more independent variables. The data are fitted by a method of successive approximations.

Use

The quality of the initial values can have a considerable impact on the success or lack of such of the search algorithm. This is because the fitness function or objective function (in many cases a sum of squared errors (SSE)) can have difficult shapes. In some parts of the search region, the function may increase exponentially, in others quadratically, and there may be regions where the function asymptotes to a plateau. Starting values that fall in an exponential region can lead to algorithm failure because of arithmetic overflow. Starting values that fall in the asymptotic plateau region can lead to algorithm failure because of "dithering". Deterministic search algorithms may use a slope function to go to a minimum. If the slope is very small, then underflow errors can cause the algorithm to wander, seemingly aimlessly; this is dithering.

A fitness function is a particular type of objective function that is used to summarise, as a single figure of merit, how close a given design solution is to achieving the set aims. Fitness functions are used in genetic programming and genetic algorithms to guide simulations towards optimal design solutions.

A plateau of a function is a part of its domain where the function has constant value.

Finding value

Guess values can be determined a number of ways. Guessing is one of them. If one is familiar with the type of problem, then this is an educated guess or guesstimate. Other techniques include linearization, solving simultaneous equations, reducing dimensions, treating the problem as a time series, converting the problem to a (hopefully) linear differential equation, and using mean values. Further methods for determining starting values and optimal values in their own right come from stochastic methods, the most commonly known of these being evolutionary algorithms and particularly genetic algorithms.

Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934 or 1935. It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun. A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available.

In mathematics, linearization is finding the linear approximation to a function at a given point. The linear approximation of a function is the first order Taylor expansion around the point of interest. In the study of dynamical systems, linearization is a method for assessing the local stability of an equilibrium point of a system of nonlinear differential equations or discrete dynamical systems. This method is used in fields such as engineering, physics, economics, and ecology.

Time series Sequence of data over time

A time series is a series of data points indexed in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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