Jeffrey Lewis | |
---|---|
Nationality | American |
Occupation | Professor, political scientist |
Academic background | |
Education | |
Academic work | |
Discipline | Nuclear nonproliferation and foreign policy |
Institutions | Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey |
Jeffrey Lewis is an American expert in nuclear nonproliferation and geopolitics,currently an adjunct professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (otherwise known as the CNS) at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey,and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program. [1] He has written two books on China's nuclear weapons,and numerous journal and magazine articles,blog posts,and podcasts on nonproliferation and related topics.
Since 2004 Lewis has run the blog site Arms Control Wonk, later hosting a podcast by the same name with Aaron Stein. [2] [3]
Lewis has been cited as an expert on nuclear programs of China,North Korea,Iran,Pakistan,and South Africa in the media.
His research interests have also included open-source intelligence,using and promoting the use of analysis of satellite images,photography,and other information sources to understand events and issues in proliferation and related topics.
Lewis received a PhD in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland and a B.A. in Philosophy and Political Science from Augustana College. [4]
From 2007 to 2010,Lewis directed the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. [5] From 2006 to 2007,he was Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. [6]
Since 2010,Lewis has been the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at MIIS in Monterey,California,and an adjunct professor at MIIS. [7] Research topics have included nuclear proliferation and weapons programs of China,North Korea,Iran,and other states,and open-source intelligence performed by the policy community itself (see for example Eliot Higgins).
He has worked with graduate students and MIIS and other researchers to develop tools and provide training on tools and technology for open source intelligence. [8] [9] [10]
He is also an affiliate with the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation. [11]
Lewis has extensively written and spoken,including for media reports,on the weapons tests,development program,and missile programs of North Korea,a country covered by the East Asia Nonproliferation Program. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18]
Lewis has written specifically about North Korea's nuclear materials production;weapons design choices (including nuclear weapon size/miniaturization and use of fissile uranium or plutonium in warheads);missiles and the North Korean space program;North Korea's missile press coverage,propaganda,and misinformation. He makes frequent use of open source intelligence from satellite and press/propaganda images and stories.
On April 27,2017,Lewis dismissed the notion,promoted by Peter Vincent Pry [19] and others,that North Korea could seriously harm the United States with an EMP weapon. [20]
One of the countries covered by the East Asia Nonproliferation Program,China has been a focus for Lewis,including his two books and monograph. His books Paper Tigers:China's Nuclear Posture (2014) and The Minimum Means of Reprisal:China's Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (2007) examine China's nuclear weapons and missiles policies. He wrote, [21] podcasted, [22] and was cited in mainstream press coverage in 2015 rebutting claims that China's adding MIRVs to its larger missiles was a dangerous escalation,arguing instead that it was a natural evolution for the Chinese older,larger missile force. [23] He has also studied and written about China's nuclear program as it relates to other powers such as India. [24]
Lewis has also written on China's conventional weapons program,including antiship and conventional ballistic missile programs and their testing of a hypervelocity weapon system. [25]
Lewis has written for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Foreign Policy magazine, Jane's Intelligence Review, Nonproliferation Review and New Scientist among other journals.
Lewis is the publisher of Arms Control Wonk blog. He additionally contributes to Foreign Policy – ForeignPolicy.com columnist since 2013., [27] and to 38 North, an online journal on published by the US-Korea Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. Between 1965 and 1968, the treaty was negotiated by the Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament, a United Nations-sponsored organization based in Geneva, Switzerland.
Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as governments fear that more countries with nuclear weapons will increase the possibility of nuclear warfare, de-stabilize international or regional relations, or infringe upon the national sovereignty of nation states.
Nuclear disarmament is the act of reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons. Its end state can also be a nuclear-weapons-free world, in which nuclear weapons are completely eliminated. The term denuclearization is also used to describe the process leading to complete nuclear disarmament.
North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and, as of early 2020, is estimated to have an arsenal of approximately 30 to 40 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year. North Korea has also stockpiled a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. In 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Since 2006, the country has been conducting a series of six nuclear tests at increasing levels of expertise, prompting the imposition of sanctions.
The People's Republic of China has developed and possesses weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and nuclear weapons. The first of China's nuclear weapons tests took place in 1964, and its first hydrogen bomb test occurred in 1967. Tests continued until 1996, when China signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China has acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1984 and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997.
Pakistan is one of nine states to possess nuclear weapons. Pakistan began development of nuclear weapons in January 1972 under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the program to the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) Munir Ahmad Khan with a commitment to having the device ready by the end of 1976. Since PAEC, which consisted of over twenty laboratories and projects under reactor physicist Munir Ahmad Khan, was falling behind schedule and having considerable difficulty producing fissile material, Abdul Qadeer Khan, a metallurgist working on centrifuge enrichment for Urenco, joined the program at the behest of the Bhutto administration by the end of 1974. As pointed out by Houston Wood, "The most difficult step in building a nuclear weapon is the production of fissile material"; as such, this work in producing fissile material as head of the Kahuta Project was pivotal to Pakistan developing the capability to detonate a nuclear weapon by the end of 1984.
The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is a multilateral export control regime. It is an informal political understanding among 35 member states that seek to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology. The regime was formed in 1987 by the G-7 industrialized countries. The MTCR seeks to limit the risks of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by controlling exports of goods and technologies that could make a contribution to delivery systems for such weapons. In this context, the MTCR places particular focus on rockets and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kg (1,100 lb) to a range of at least 300 km and on equipment, software, and technology for such systems.
The Japanese program to develop nuclear weapons was conducted during World War II. Like the German nuclear weapons program, it suffered from an array of problems, and was ultimately unable to progress beyond the laboratory stage before the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the Japanese surrender in August 1945.
South Korea has the raw materials and equipment to produce a nuclear weapon but has not opted to make one. In August 2004, South Korea revealed the extent of its highly secretive and sensitive nuclear research programs to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including some experiments which were conducted without the obligatory reporting to the IAEA called for by South Korea's safeguards agreement. The failure to report was reported by the IAEA Secretariat to the IAEA Board of Governors; however, the IAEA Board of Governors decided to not make a formal finding of noncompliance. However, South Korea has continued on a stated policy of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and has adopted a policy to maintain a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.
Iran is not known to currently possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and has signed treaties repudiating the possession of WMDs including the Biological Weapons Convention, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran has first-hand knowledge of WMD effects—over 100,000 Iranian troops and civilians were victims of chemical weapons during the 1980s Iran–Iraq War.
The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS), formerly known as the Monterey Institute of International Studies, is an American graduate school of Middlebury College, a private college in Middlebury, Vermont.
Saudi Arabia is not known to have a nuclear weapons program. From an official and public standpoint, Saudi Arabia has been an opponent of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, having signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and is a member of the coalition of countries demanding a Nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East. Studies of nuclear proliferation have not identified Saudi Arabia as a country of concern. Nuclear technology company IP3 International was formed in June 2016 to transfer nuclear technology from the United States to Saudi Arabia.
The State of Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads, and the country is believed to possess the ability to deliver them in several methods, including by aircraft, as submarine-launched cruise missiles, and via the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental range ballistic missiles. Its first deliverable nuclear weapon is thought to have been completed in late 1966 or early 1967; which would make it the sixth country in the world to have developed them.
This timeline of nuclear weapons development is a chronological catalog of the evolution of nuclear weapons rooting from the development of the science surrounding nuclear fission and nuclear fusion. In addition to the scientific advancements, this timeline also includes several political events relating to the development of nuclear weapons. The availability of intelligence on recent advancements in nuclear weapons of several major countries is limited because of the classification of technical knowledge of nuclear weapons development.
This is a comparison list of intercontinental ballistic missiles developed by various countries.
The Hwasong-13, also known as Rodong-C or KN-08 under the U.S. naming convention, is a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be under development by North Korea. The changes shown in the mock-up displayed in October 2015 indicated a change from a three to two-stage design.
The Kangson enrichment site is the name given to a suspected uranium enrichment site located in Chollima-guyok, just outside of Pyongyang, North Korea, along the Pyongyang-Nampo Expressway.
The Chinese biological weapons program is a biological weapons program reported to have been active in the 1980s, and suspected by some governments and security analysts to remain covertly active. China is currently a signatory of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and Chinese officials have stated that China has never engaged in biological activities with offensive military applications. China was reported to have had an active biological weapons program in the 1980s. Members of the US intelligence community heavily suspect that the state of China had, as of 2015, at least 42 facilities that may be involved in research, development, production, or testing of biological agents.