Magic formula investing

Last updated

Magic formula investing is an investment technique outlined by Joel Greenblatt that uses the principles of value investing.

Contents

Methodology

Greenblatt (b. 1957), an American professional asset manager since the 1980s, suggests purchasing 30 "good companies": cheap stocks with a high earnings yield and a high return on capital. He describes this as a simplified version of the strategy employed by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway.

He touts the success of his magic formula in his book 'The Little Book that Beats the Market' ( ISBN   0-471-73306-7 published 2005, revised 2010), stating it averaged a 17-year annual return of 30.8%. [1]

He wrote the book for a non-technical reader (his teenaged children were the target audience), but an appendix includes more advanced explanations and data for readers with relevant experience or education. Greenblatt's system analyzed the largest companies trading on the American stock market, ranked by the largest 1,000, 2,500 or 3,000, for a 17 year period before the book's 2005 publication. Smaller companies, $50 million or under, were avoided because they tend to have fewer shares in circulation and large purchases can cause sharp changes in share prices. Greenblatt did not test this hypothesis on international stock markets due to difficulties comparing international and American data, but believed it would apply globally. He also stressed the formula will not necessarily be successful with any specific stock, but will be successful for a group of stocks as a unit or block.

He goes on to assigning numerical rankings, based on each company's earnings yield and return on capital:

"...a company that ranked 232nd best in return on capital and 153rd best in earnings yield would receive combined ranking of 385 (232 + 153). [...] Getting excellent rankings in both categories, (though not the top ranked in either) would be better under this ranking system than being the top-ranked in one category with only a pretty good ranking in the other."

From here, Greenblatt recommends selecting 20 to 30 of the better-ranked companies, selling them at predetermined intervals and replacing with new stocks that fit the formula.

Greenblatt's analysis found when applied to the largest 1,000 stocks the formula underperformed the market (defined as the S&P 500) for an average of five months out of each year. On an annual basis, the formula outperformed the market three out of four years but underperformed about 16% of two-year periods and 5% of three-year periods. Greenblatt asserts the formula out-performed market averages 100% of the time for any period longer than three years and worked best over three to five years or more. Results were even better and with lower risk when the formula was applied to larger pools of stocks like the largest 3,000 companies. The formula can thus be a contrarian investing strategy, focused sometimes on staying committed to stocks that might be temporarily unattractive or with sub-par performance.

In an afterword to the 2010 edition, Greenblatt admitted three possible flaws to the formula. (1) The formula can underperform for up to several years which many investors will find discouraging. (2) Some amateurs found it cumbersome to track buying and selling times for stocks. (3) Beating the market does not necessarily imply making money (e.g. if the market loses 40% one year, following the formula might result in a 38% loss, which Greenblatt describes as "small consolation".)

Formula

  1. Establish a minimum market capitalization (usually greater than $50 million).
  2. Exclude utility and financial stocks.
  3. Exclude foreign companies (American Depositary Receipts).
  4. Determine company's earnings yield = EBIT / enterprise value.
  5. Determine company's return on capital = EBIT / (net fixed assets + working capital).
  6. Rank all companies above chosen market capitalization by highest earnings yield and highest return on capital (ranked as percentages).
  7. Invest in 20–30 highest ranked companies, accumulating 2–3 positions per month over a 12-month period.
  8. Re-balance portfolio once per year, selling losers one week before the year-mark and winners one week after the year mark.
  9. Continue over a long-term (5–10+ year) period.

Analysis around the world

A number of studies have found merit in Greenblatt's "magic investing formula" in various markets around the world.

Criticism of the Magic Formula

Independent scholar Robert Andrew Martin conducted a backtest analysis of Greenblatt's magic investing formula for the US market in June 2020. [11] His analysis revealed that from 2003 to 2015 application of Greenblatt's formula to U.S. stocks resulted in an annualized average return of 11.4%. This outperformed the S&P 500's annualized return of 8.7%. However, Martin also found that the formula underperformed the S&P 500 slightly during the 2007-2011 period and actually went negative for a time. Additionally, over the entire 2003-2015 period, the strategy exhibited more volatility compared to the S&P 500. In his evaluation, Martin found that the almost 3% outperformance was remarkable, though it fell short of the 30% returns claimed in Greenblatt's book. It is important to note that different sample periods are used. Moreover, Martin highlighted the presence of "significant psychological risk" associated with under-performance during the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

See also

Related Research Articles

Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements ; health; competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative and technical.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dividend</span> Payment made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits

A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, it is able to pay a portion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. Any amount not distributed is taken to be re-invested in the business. The current year profit as well as the retained earnings of previous years are available for distribution; a corporation is usually prohibited from paying a dividend out of its capital. Distribution to shareholders may be in cash or, if the corporation has a dividend reinvestment plan, the amount can be paid by the issue of further shares or by share repurchase. In some cases, the distribution may be of assets.

Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources to achieve later benefits". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broader viewpoint, an investment can be defined as "to tailor the pattern of expenditure and receipt of resources to optimise the desirable patterns of these flows". When expenditures and receipts are defined in terms of money, then the net monetary receipt in a time period is termed cash flow, while money received in a series of several time periods is termed cash flow stream.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Price–earnings ratio</span> Financial metric

The price–earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio, P/E, or PER, is the ratio of a company's share (stock) price to the company's earnings per share. The ratio is used for valuing companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.

The dividend yield or dividend–price ratio of a share is the dividend per share divided by the price per share. It is also a company's total annual dividend payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of shares is constant. It is often expressed as a percentage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Value investing</span> Investment paradigm

Value investing is an investment paradigm that involves buying securities that appear underpriced by some form of fundamental analysis. All forms of value investing derive from the investment philosophy taught by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd at Columbia Business School in 1928 and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis.

The 'PEG ratio' is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.

Business valuation is a process and a set of procedures used to estimate the economic value of an owner's interest in a business. Here various valuation techniques are used by financial market participants to determine the price they are willing to pay or receive to effect a sale of the business. In addition to estimating the selling price of a business, the same valuation tools are often used by business appraisers to resolve disputes related to estate and gift taxation, divorce litigation, allocate business purchase price among business assets, establish a formula for estimating the value of partners' ownership interest for buy-sell agreements, and many other business and legal purposes such as in shareholders deadlock, divorce litigation and estate contest.

In finance, an investment strategy is a set of rules, behaviors or procedures, designed to guide an investor's selection of an investment portfolio. Individuals have different profit objectives, and their individual skills make different tactics and strategies appropriate. Some choices involve a tradeoff between risk and return. Most investors fall somewhere in between, accepting some risk for the expectation of higher returns.

Investment style, is a term in investment management, referring to how a characteristic investment philosophy is employed by an investor or fund manager. Here, for example, one manager favors small cap stocks, while another prefers large blue-chip stocks. The classification extends across asset classes — equities, bonds or financial derivatives — and within each further weighs factors such as leverage, momentum, diversification benefits, relative value or growth prospects.

The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in a 1991 book and his Dogs of the Dow website.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fed model</span> Disputed equity valuation model

The "Fed model", or "Fed Stock Valuation Model" (FSVM), is a disputed theory of equity valuation that compares the stock market's forward earnings yield to the nominal yield on long-term government bonds, and that the stock market – as a whole – is fairly valued, when the one-year forward-looking I/B/E/S earnings yield equals the 10-year nominal Treasury yield; deviations suggest over-or-under valuation.

Joel Greenblatt is an American academic, hedge fund manager, investor, and writer. He is a value investor, alumnus of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and adjunct professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business. He runs Gotham Asset Management with his partner, Robert Goldstein. He is the former chairman of the board of Alliant Techsystems (1994–1995) and founder of the New York Securities Auction Corporation. He was a director at Pzena Investment Management, a firm specializing in value investing and asset management for high net worth clients.

Earning yield is the quotient of earnings per share (E), divided by the share price (P), giving E/P. It is the reciprocal of the P/E ratio.

Fundamentally based indexes or fundamental indexes, also called fundamentally weighted indexes, are indexes in which stocks are weighted according to factors related to their fundamentals such as earnings, dividends and assets, commonly used when performing corporate valuations. Indexes that use a composite of several fundamental factors attempt to average out sector biases that may arise from relying on a single fundamental factor. A key belief behind the fundamental index methodology is that underlying corporate accounting/valuation figures are more accurate estimators of a company's intrinsic value, rather than the listed market value of the company, i.e. that one should buy and sell companies in line with their accounting figures rather than according to their current market prices. In this sense fundamental indexing is linked to so-called fundamental analysis.

<i>Stocks for the Long Run</i> 1994 book by Jeremy Siegel

Stocks for the Long Run is a book on investing by Jeremy Siegel. Its first edition was released in 1994. Its fifth edition was released on January 7, 2014. According to Pablo Galarza of Money, "His 1994 book Stocks for the Long Run sealed the conventional wisdom that most of us should be in the stock market." James K. Glassman, a financial columnist for The Washington Post, called it one of the 10 best investment books of all time.

The S&P/ASX 300, or simply, ASX 300, is a stock market index of Australian stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). The index is market-capitalisation weighted, meaning each company included is in proportion to the indexes total market value, and float-adjusted, meaning the index only considers shares available to public investors.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial ratio</span> Numerical value to determine the financial condition of a company

A financial ratio or accounting ratio states the relative magnitude of two selected numerical values taken from an enterprise's financial statements. Often used in accounting, there are many standard ratios used to try to evaluate the overall financial condition of a corporation or other organization. Financial ratios may be used by managers within a firm, by current and potential shareholders (owners) of a firm, and by a firm's creditors. Financial analysts use financial ratios to compare the strengths and weaknesses in various companies. If shares in a company are publicly listed, the market price of the shares is used in certain financial ratios.

Conservative formula investing is an investment technique that uses the principles of low-volatility investing and is enhanced with momentum and net payout yield signals.

References

  1. ↑ Zen, Brian and Hamai, Garrett. "Joel Greenblatt Speaking at NYSSA". December 28, 2005.
  2. ↑ Vestre, Tobias & Wikheim, Viktor, 2022. The Magic Formula. The Norwegian School of Economics.
  3. ↑ Persson, V. & Selander, N., 2009. Back testing “The Magic Formula” in the Nordic region. Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. ↑ Davyclov, D., Tikkanen, J. & Äijö, J., 2016. Magic Formula vs. Traditional Value Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market. Nordic Journal of Business, 65(3–4), pp. 38–54.
  5. ↑ Gunnar Juliao de Paula, Alexander (2016) Backtesting the Magic Formula in the Brazilian Stock Market. Masters Thesis, University of Gothenburg
  6. ↑ Oscar Gustavsson and Oskar Strömberg. http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=8932178&fileOId=8932179 Magic Formula Investing and The Swedish Stock Market: Can the Magic Formula beat the market?] Bachelor’s thesis, Fall Semester 2017, Lund University
  7. ↑ "Home - ValueWalk" (PDF).
  8. ↑ Luo, Min (2019). "Case Study of Magic Formula Based on Value Investment in Chinese A-shares Market". Advances in Computational Science and Computing. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Vol. 877. pp. 177–194. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-02116-0_22. ISBN   978-3-030-02115-3. S2CID   158778392.
  9. ↑ Thibault Le Flanchec, Le Flanchec. "L'histoire vous le dira : étude de la stratégie Value-Quality".
  10. ↑ Preet, Simmar (2022). "Back Testing Magic Formula on Indian Stock Markets: An Analysis of Magic Formula Strategy".
  11. ↑ "A critical look at Greenblatt's Magic Formula · Reasonable Deviations".
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.