Megatrend

Last updated

Megatrends are trends that have an effect on a global scale. Some of the current megatrends relate to global threats. [1] [2]

A megatrend strongly influences different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions. [3] A megatrend is different than a shortlived product or consumer trend.

John Naisbitt was a pioneer of future studies. His book “Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives” was first published in 1982. It focused mainly on the United States but also attempted to present a global outlook. Naisbitt accurately predicted the change from industrialized to information societies. [4]

A growing number of research institutions, international organizations, and think tanks are reflecting on megatrends with the purpose of engaging in dialogue and influence policymaking and investments.

Kuhn & Margellos [5] proposed a framework to identify and prioritize megatrends which focuses on five criteria relating to the relevance of trends. The five key criteria are the following:

  1. Research and, particularly, research coverage of the trend by researchers and analysts from different disciplinary background in different countries and regions.
  2. Level of political attention for the trend in a significant number of countries and regions.
  3. Significant interest from global investors. This acknowledges that investments have great potential to promote trends.
  4. Media coverage of the trend. This refers to traditional media and social media.
  5. Strength of social movements and advocacy actions related to the trend. These factors represent different spheres of societies: scientific and research, state, and government institutions; financial and business sectors; media; and civil society .

Kuhn & Margellos interviewed researchers and experts from more than 30 countries to prioritize megatrends resulting in the following megatrends: Climate Action and Sustainability; Digitalization; Inequality; Demography; Urbanization and Smart Cities; Health and Nutrition; Green Economy; Sustainable Finance; Multipolar World Order and the Future of Multilateralism; Democracy and Governance Innovations; Civilizational Developments: Diversity, Individualization and Loneliness, Gender Shift, and Identity Politics; Migration.

However, it is important to note that the identification and analysis of megatrends rely on the disciplinary and professional perspectives of researchers and experts, as well as the specific country or region upon which their analysis is focused.

Economic implications

Economically, megatrends can be exploited by enterprises to make profit. At least 7 megatrends have been identified by multinational investment and professional services companies: [6] [7] [8]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Urbanization</span> Process of population movement to cities

Urbanization is the population shift from rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. It can also mean population growth in urban areas instead of rural ones. It is predominantly the process by which towns and cities are formed and become larger as more people begin living and working in central areas.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">S&P Global</span> American financial services company

S&P Global Inc. is an American publicly traded corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Its primary areas of business are financial information and analytics. It is the parent company of S&P Global Ratings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Mobility, S&P Global Engineering Solutions, S&P Global Sustainable1, and S&P Global Commodity Insights, CRISIL, and is the majority owner of the S&P Dow Jones Indices joint venture. "S&P" is a shortening of "Standard and Poor's".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Daniel Yergin</span> American author and speaker (born 1947)

Daniel Howard Yergin is an American author and consultant within the energy and economic sectors. Yergin is vice chairman of S&P Global. He was formerly vice chairman of IHS Markit, which merged with S&P in 2022. He founded Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which IHS Markit acquired in 2004. He has authored or co-authored several books on energy and world economics, including the Pulitzer Prize–winning The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, (1991) The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (2011), and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (2020).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Futures studies</span> Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures

Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">World-systems theory</span> Approach emphasizing the world-system as the primary unit of social analysis

World-systems theory is a multidisciplinary approach to world history and social change which emphasizes the world-system as the primary unit of social analysis. World-systems theorists argue that their theory explains the rise and fall of states, income inequality, social unrest, and imperialism.

John Naisbitt was an American author and public speaker in the area of futures studies. His first book Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives was published in 1982. It was the result of almost ten years of research. It was on The New York Times Best Seller list for two years, mostly as No. 1. Megatrends was published in 57 countries and sold more than 14 million copies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Purchasing Managers' Index</span> Economic indicator

Purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies.

Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Markit, and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">World Academy of Art and Science</span> International scientific organization

The World Academy of Art and Science (WAAS), founded in 1960, is an international non-governmental scientific organization and global network of more than 800 scientists, artists, and scholars in more than 90 countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intergenerational equity</span> Concept of fairness or justice between generations

Intergenerational equity in economic, psychological, and sociological contexts, is the idea of fairness or justice between generations. The concept can be applied to fairness in dynamics between children, youth, adults, and seniors. It can also be applied to fairness between generations currently living and future generations.

Markit was a British financial information and services company with over 4,000 employees, founded in 2003 as an independent source of credit derivative pricing. The company provides independent data, trade processing of derivatives, foreign exchange and loans, customised technology platforms and managed services. The company aims to enhance transparency, reduce financial risk and improve operational efficiency. Its client base includes institutional participants in the financial marketplace. On 12 July 2016, Markit and IHS Inc. merged in an all-stock merger of equals to form IHS Markit. IHS Markit later merged with S&P Global on 28 February 2022.

IHS Markit Ltd was an information services provider that completed a merger with S&P Global in 2022. Headquartered in London, it was formed in 2016 with the merger of IHS Inc. and Markit Ltd.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economics of climate change mitigation</span> Part of the economics of climate change related to climate change mitigation

The economics of climate change mitigation is a contentious part of climate change mitigation – action aimed to limit the dangerous socio-economic and environmental consequences of climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Secondary city</span> Type of urban hub

A secondary city is an urban hub that fills specific regional and local needs related to governance, economics, finance, education, trade, transportation. A secondary city is defined by population, area, function, and economic status, but also by their relationship to neighboring and distant cities and their socio-economic status. A secondary city may emerge from a cluster of smaller cities in a metropolitan region or may be the capital city of a province, state, or second-tier administrative unit within a country. Secondary cities are the fastest-growing urban areas in lower- and middle-income countries, experiencing unplanned growth and development. By 2030, there will be twice as many medium-size cities as there were in 1990, outnumbering the total number of megacities. According to the World Bank, secondary cities make up almost 40% of the world cities population. Many secondary cities in the Global South are expected to undergo massive expansions in the next few decades comparable to city growth in Europe and North America over the past two centuries. These cities are unique environments that generally have limited data and information on infrastructure, land tenure, and planning.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainable Development Goals</span> United Nations 17 sustainable development goals for 2030

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations members in 2015, created 17 world Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They were created with the aim of "peace and prosperity for people and the planet..." – while tackling climate change and working to preserve oceans and forests. The SDGs highlight the connections between the environmental, social and economic aspects of sustainable development. Sustainability is at the center of the SDGs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Douglas L. Peterson</span> American businessperson and entrepreneur

Douglas L. Peterson is the president and chief executive officer of S&P Global, formerly McGraw Hill Financial. He became president and chief executive officer in November 2013. Peterson has served on S&P Global’s Board of Directors since July 2013. In June 2024, Peterson announced his plans to retire from the position of CEO and step down, with S&P Global Ratings President Martina Chueng replacing him.. Doug originally joined the company as president of Standard & Poor's Ratings Services in 2011.

CERAWeek is an annual energy conference organized by the information and insights company S&P Global in Houston, Texas. The conference provides a platform for discussion on a range of energy-related topics; CERAWeek 2019 featured sessions on the world economic outlook, geopolitics, energy policy and regulation, climate change and technological innovation, among other topics. The conference features prominent speakers from energy, policy, technology, and financial industries, and is chaired by Pulitzer Prize winner Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman, IHS Markit and Jamey Rosenfield, vice chair, CERAWeek, senior vice president, IHS Markit. Both are co-founders of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

NewsBank Inc. is a US-based commercial company founded in 1972 that operates a global news database resource providing online archives of media publications as reference materials to libraries. As of 2024 it includes current and archived information from thousands of newspapers, videos, broadcast transcripts, journals, and other publications.

Trackinsight is a privately held financial technology company headquartered in Biot, France.

Thematic investing is a form of investment that aims to identify macro-level trends and the underlying investments that stand to benefit from the materialisation of those trends. Thematic investing aims to seize opportunities arising from megatrends likely to shape the global economy in the decades ahead.

References

  1. ↑ "Five of the world's biggest environmental problems - 11.10.2016". DW.COM. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
  2. ↑ "AlternAtive Worlds" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
  3. ↑ Kuhn, Subin (2022). Global Perspectives on Megatrends. doi:10.24216/9783838215631. ISBN   978-3-8382-7563-5 . Retrieved 2024-04-10.{{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)
  4. ↑ Naisbitt, John (1982). Megatrends: ten new directions transforming our lives. New York: Warner Books. ISBN   978-0-446-51251-0.
  5. ↑ Kuhn, Subin (2022). Global Perspectives on Megatrends. doi:10.24216/9783838215631. ISBN   978-3-8382-7563-5 . Retrieved 2024-04-10.{{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)
  6. ↑ "Invest in the future with megatrends - BlackRock". BlackRock. December 31, 2019. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
  7. ↑ PricewaterhouseCoopers (November 22, 2016). "Five Megatrends And Their Implications for Global Defense & Security". PwC. Retrieved July 27, 2020. pdf
  8. 1 2 3 Ernst & Young (June 19, 2020). "Are you reframing your future or is the future reframing you?". EY. Retrieved August 23, 2020. pdf
  9. ↑ "Number of Connected IoT Devices Will Surge to 125 Billion by 2030, IHS Markit Says". IHS Markit Online Newsroom. October 24, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
  10. ↑ "World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Multimedia Library". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. June 21, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
  11. ↑ "World Urbanization Prospects - United Nations". Population Division. May 16, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
  12. ↑ "New Energy Outlook" (PDF). Bloomberg. 2017.
  13. ↑ "The Long View How will the global economic order change by 2050" (PDF). PWC. 2017.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.