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Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers. It has applications in all fields of social science, as well as in logic, systems science and computer science. Originally, it addressed zero-sum games, in which each participant's gains or losses are exactly balanced by those of the other participants. In the 21st century, game theory applies to a wide range of behavioral relations, and is now an umbrella term for the science of logical decision making in humans, animals, and computers.
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr., is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy. The principle of Nash equilibrium dates back to the time of Cournot, who applied it to competing firms choosing outputs.
Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy.
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk–dove game or snowdrift game, is a model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while the outcome is ideal for one player to yield, but the individuals try to avoid it out of pride for not wanting to look like a 'chicken'. So each player taunts the other to increase the risk of shame in yielding. However, when one player yields, the conflict is avoided, and the game is for the most part over.
In systems engineering and software engineering, requirements analysis focuses on the tasks that determine the needs or conditions to meet the new or altered product or project, taking account of the possibly conflicting requirements of the various stakeholders, analyzing, documenting, validating and managing software or system requirements.
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
Deterrence theory is the idea that an inferior force, by virtue of the destructive power of the force's weapons, could deter a more powerful adversary, provided that this force could be protected against destruction by a surprise attack. This doctrine gained increased prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons and is related to, but distinct from, the concept of Mutual assured destruction, which models the preventative nature of full-scale nuclear attack that would devastate both parties in a nuclear war. Deterrence is a strategy intended to dissuade an adversary from taking an action not yet started by means of threat of reprisal, or to prevent them from doing something that another state desires. The strategy is based on the psychological concept of the same name. A credible nuclear deterrent, Bernard Brodie wrote in 1959, must be always at the ready, yet never used.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking within the United States Intelligence Community (IC). It was formed in 1979. According to its official website:
Metagame, or game about the game, is any approach to a game that transcends or operates outside of the prescribed rules of the game, uses external factors to affect the game, or goes beyond the supposed limits or environment set by the game.
Business analysis is a research discipline of identifying business needs and determining solutions to business problems. Solutions often include a software-systems development component, but may also consist of process improvements, organizational change or strategic planning and policy development. The person who carries out this task is called a business analyst or BA.
Wolfowitz Doctrine is an unofficial name given to the initial version of the Defense Planning Guidance for the 1994–99 fiscal years published by US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz and his deputy Scooter Libby. Not intended for public release, it was leaked to the New York Times on March 7, 1992, and sparked a public controversy about U.S. foreign and defense policy. The document was widely criticized as imperialist, as the document outlined a policy of unilateralism and pre-emptive military action to suppress potential threats from other nations and prevent dictatorships from rising to superpower status.
Hitler's War is a strategic level World War II war game for 2 or 3 players, first published by Metagaming Concepts in 1981, and then by Avalon Hill in 1984.
The Nuclear doctrine of Pakistan is a theoretical concept of military strategy that promotes deterrence by guaranteeing an immediate "massive retaliation" to an aggressive attack against the state.
Nuclear peace is a theory of international relations that argues that under some circumstances, nuclear weapons can induce stability and decrease the chances of crisis escalation. In particular, nuclear weapons are said to have induced stability during the Cold War, when both the US and the USSR possessed mutual second-strike retaliation capability, which eliminated the possibility of nuclear victory for either side. Proponents of nuclear peace argue that controlled nuclear proliferation may be beneficial for inducing stability. Critics of nuclear peace argue that nuclear proliferation increases the chance not only of nuclear war but also of nuclear material falling into the hands of violent non-state actors that are free from the threat of nuclear retaliation.
Military capability is defined by the Australian Defence Force as "the ability to achieve a desired effect in a specific operating environment". It is defined by three interdependent factors: combat readiness, sustainable capability and force structure.
A goal model is an element of requirements engineering that may also be used more widely in business analysis. Related elements include stakeholder analysis, context analysis, and scenarios, among other business and technical areas.
Confrontation analysis is an operational analysis technique used to structure, understand and think through multi-party interactions such as negotiations. It is the underpinning mathematical basis of drama theory.
The analysis of the global environment of a company is called global environmental analysis. This analysis is part of a company's analysis-system, which also comprises various other analyses, like the industry analysis, the market analysis and the analyses of companies, clients and competitors. This system can be divided into a macro and micro level. Except for the global environmental analysis, all other analyses can be found on the micro level. Though, the global environmental analysis describes the macro environment of a company. A company is influenced by its environment. Many environmental factors, especially economical or social factors, play a big role in a company's decisions, because the analysis and the monitoring of those factors reveal chances and risks for the company's business. This environmental framework also gives information about location issues. A company is thereby able to determine its location sites. Furthermore, many other strategic decisions are based on this analysis. One may also apply the BBW model. In addition, the factors are analyzed to evaluate external business developments. It is finally the task of the management to adapt the firm to its environment or to influence the environment in an adequate way. The latter is mostly the more difficult option. There are different instruments to analyze the company's environment which are going to be explained afterwards.
Drama theory is one of the problem structuring methods in operations research. It is based on game theory and adapts the use of games to complex organisational situations, accounting for emotional responses that can provoke irrational reactions and lead the players to redefine the game. In a drama, emotions trigger rationalizations that create changes in the game, and so change follows change until either all conflicts are resolved or action becomes necessary. The game as redefined is then played.
Decision quality (DQ) is the quality of a decision at the moment the decision is made, regardless of its outcome. Decision quality concepts permit the assurance of both effectiveness and efficiency in analyzing decision problems. In that sense, decision quality can be seen as an extension to decision analysis. Decision quality also describes the process that leads to a high-quality decision. Properly implemented, the DQ process enables capturing maximum value in uncertain and complex scenarios.
References
- Howard, Nigel (1971). Paradoxes of Rationality: Games, Metagames, and Political Behavior. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. ISBN 978-0-262-58237-7.
- Howard, Nigel (1989). The manager as politician and general: the metagame approach to analysing cooperation and conflict. In: Rosenhead J (ed) Rational analysis for a problematic world: problem structuring methods for complexity, uncertainty and conflict. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-92286-5.
- Veeneman, Wijnand; Igor Mayer (eds.). Games in a world of infrastructures. Simulation-Games for Research, Learning, and Intervention. Delft, The Netherlands: Eburon. ISBN 90-5166-924-0.
- Bots, P. W. G.; Hermans, L. M. (2003). "Developing 'playable metagames' for participatory stakeholder analysis" (PDF). Proceedings of the 34th Conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA). Chiba, Japan. Retrieved 2007-09-22.