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The monetary transmission mechanism is the process by which asset prices and general economic conditions are affected as a result of monetary policy decisions. Such decisions are intended to influence the aggregate demand, interest rates, and amounts of money and credit to affect overall economic performance. The traditional monetary transmission mechanism occurs through interest rate channels, which affect interest rates, costs of borrowing, levels of physical investment, and aggregate demand. Additionally, frictions in the credit markets, known as the credit view, can affect aggregate demand. In short, the monetary transmission mechanism can be defined as the link between monetary policy and aggregate demand.
An interest rate channel may be categorized as traditional, which means monetary policy affects real (rather than nominal) interest rates, which influence investment, spending on new housing, consumer spending, and aggregate demand. An easing of monetary policy in the traditional view leads to a decrease in real interest rates, which lowers the cost of borrowing, resulting in greater investment spending, involving an overall increase in aggregate demand. [1]
In addition to the traditional interest rate channel, which focuses on the effects of interest rate changes, there are other methods through which monetary policy can influence economic outcomes and aggregate demand. These alternative channels are classified under the credit view, [2] which argues that financial frictions in the credit markets create additional channels that lead to changes in aggregate demand. These channels operate through effects on bank lending, as well as the effects on the balance sheet of a given firm or household. [2]
Monetary policy affects bank deposits, leading to changes in the amount of bank loans and investment in residential housing. [2]
Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to moral hazard and adverse selection, which leads to changes in lending activity and investment [2]
Monetary policy leads to changes in nominal interest rates, which affects cash flow, leading to moral hazard, adverse selection, and changes in lending activity and investment [2]
Monetary policy can lead to unanticipated price level changes, resulting in moral hazard, adverse selection, and changes in lending activity and investment [2]
Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to changes in financial wealth and the probability of financial distress, which affects residential housing and consumer spending [3]
Finally, other asset price effects have separate channels allowing monetary policy to influence aggregate demand:
Monetary policy affects real interest rates and the exchange rate, leading to changes in net exports [4]
Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to changes in Tobin's q (the market value of firms divided by the replacement cost of capital) and investment [2]
Monetary policy affects stock prices, which affects financial wealth and consumption (consumer spending on nondurable goods and services) [5]
Stock prices respond more aggressively and asymmetrically to monetary policy under high uncertainty. The time-varying link between monetary policy and stock prices depends on uncertainty. [6]
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output/GDP and national income, unemployment, price indices and inflation, consumption, saving, investment, energy, international trade, and international finance.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.
An economic bubble is a period when current asset prices greatly exceed their intrinsic valuation, being the valuation that the underlying long-term fundamentals justify. Bubbles can be caused by overly optimistic projections about the scale and sustainability of growth, and/or by the belief that intrinsic valuation is no longer relevant when making an investment. They have appeared in most asset classes, including equities, commodities, real estate, and even esoteric assets. Bubbles usually form as a result of either excess liquidity in markets, and/or changed investor psychology. Large multi-asset bubbles, are attributed to central banking liquidity.
An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed. The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed.
The monetary policy of the United States is the set of policies which the Federal Reserve follows to achieve its twin objectives of high employment and stable inflation.
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since then, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.
The quantity theory of money is a hypothesis within monetary economics which states that the general price level of goods and services is directly proportional to the amount of money in circulation, and that the causality runs from money to prices. This implies that the theory potentially explains inflation. It originated in the 16th century and has been proclaimed the oldest surviving theory in economics.
In economics, crowding out is a phenomenon that occurs when increased government involvement in a sector of the market economy substantially affects the remainder of the market, either on the supply or demand side of the market.
Money creation, or money issuance, is the process by which the money supply of a country, or an economic or monetary region, is increased. In most modern economies, money is created by both central banks and commercial banks. Money issued by central banks is a liability, typically called reserve deposits, and is only available for use by central bank account holders, which are generally large commercial banks and foreign central banks.
The real economy concerns the production, purchase and flow of goods and services within an economy. It is contrasted with the financial economy, which concerns the aspects of the economy that deal purely in transactions of money and other financial assets, which represent ownership or claims to ownership of real sector goods and services.
In finance, risk factors are the building blocks of investing, that help explain the systematic returns in equity market, and the possibility of losing money in investments or business adventures. A risk factor is a concept in finance theory such as the capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory and other theories that use pricing kernels. In these models, the rate of return of an asset is a random variable whose realization in any time period is a linear combination of other random variables plus a disturbance term or white noise. In practice, a linear combination of observed factors included in a linear asset pricing model proxy for a linear combination of unobserved risk factors if financial market efficiency is assumed. In the Intertemporal CAPM, non-market factors proxy for changes in the investment opportunity set.
Credit rationing by definition is limiting the lenders of the supply of additional credit to borrowers who demand funds at a set quoted rate by the financial institution. It is an example of market failure, as the price mechanism fails to bring about equilibrium in the market. It should not be confused with cases where credit is simply "too expensive" for some borrowers, that is, situations where the interest rate is deemed too high. With credit rationing, the borrower would like to acquire the funds at the current rates, and the imperfection is the absence of supply from the financial institutions, despite willing borrowers. In other words, at the prevailing market interest rate, demand exceeds supply, but lenders are willing neither to lend enough additional funds to satisfy demand, nor to raise the interest rate they charge borrowers because they are already maximising profits, or are using a cautious approach to continuing to meet their capital reserve requirements.
A flight-to-quality, or flight-to-safety, is a financial market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, such as gold and other precious metals. This is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits.
In financial economics, a liquidity crisis is an acute shortage of liquidity. Liquidity may refer to market liquidity, funding liquidity, or accounting liquidity. Additionally, some economists define a market to be liquid if it can absorb "liquidity trades" without large changes in price. This shortage of liquidity could reflect a fall in asset prices below their long run fundamental price, deterioration in external financing conditions, reduction in the number of market participants, or simply difficulty in trading assets.
The interbank lending market is a market in which banks lend funds to one another for a specified term. Most interbank loans are for maturities of one week or less, the majority being overnight. Such loans are made at the interbank rate. A sharp decline in transaction volume in this market was a major contributing factor to the collapse of several financial institutions during the financial crisis of 2007–2008.
The credit channel mechanism of monetary policy describes the theory that a central bank's policy changes affect the amount of credit that banks issue to firms and consumers for purchases, which in turn affects the real economy.
In the Philippines, monetary policy is the way the central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, controls the supply and availability of money, the cost of money, and the rate of interest. With fiscal policy, monetary policy allows the government to influence the economy, control inflation, and stabilize currency.
The asset price channel is the monetary transmission channel that is responsible for the distribution of the effects induced by monetary policy decisions made by the central bank of a country that affect the price of assets. These effects on the prices of assets will in turn affect the economy.
The interest rate channel is a mechanism of monetary policy, whereby a policy-induced change in the short-term nominal interest rate by the central bank affects the price level, and subsequently output and employment.