Monitoring the Future

Last updated April 25, 2019

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, also known as the National High School Senior Survey,^[1] is a long-term epidemiological study that surveys trends in legal and illicit drug use among American adolescents and adults as well as personal levels of perceived risk and disapproval for each drug. The survey is conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, funded by research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, one of the National Institutes of Health.^[2]

Biologically, an adult is a human or other organism that has reached sexual maturity. In human context, the term adult additionally has meanings associated with social and legal concepts. In contrast to a "minor", a legal adult is a person who has attained the age of majority and is therefore regarded as independent, self-sufficient, and responsible. The typical age of attaining legal adulthood is 18, although definition may vary by legal rights and country.

The University of Michigan, often simply referred to as Michigan, is a public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The university is Michigan's oldest; it was founded in 1817 in Detroit, as the Catholepistemiad, or University of Michigania, 20 years before the territory became a state. The school was moved to Ann Arbor in 1837 onto 40 acres (16 ha) of what is now known as Central Campus. Since its establishment in Ann Arbor, the university campus has expanded to include more than 584 major buildings with a combined area of more than 34 million gross square feet spread out over a Central Campus and North Campus, two regional campuses in Flint and Dearborn, and a Center in Detroit. The university is a founding member of the Association of American Universities.

The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research (ISR) is one of the largest academic social research and survey organization in the world, established in 1949. With an annual research budget of over $80 million, ISR includes more than 250 scientists from many academic disciplines – including political science, psychology, sociology, economics, demography, history, anthropology, and statistics. It has been said to be "the premier center for survey research methodology in the world."

Survey design

The survey began in 1975 and only focused on that year's senior class. Questionnaires are sent out yearly by mail. Beginning in 1976, a proportion of survey participants were also chosen for biennial reevaluations. In 1991, the survey was expanded to include 8th and 10th grade students.^[1] The questionnaire is anonymous for 8th- and 10th-grade students while the questionnaire for 12th-grade students is confidential—name and address information is collected for longitudinal follow-up surveys.^[2]

Anonymity, adjective "anonymous", is derived from the Greek word ἀνωνυμία, anonymia, meaning "without a name" or "namelessness". In colloquial use, "anonymous" is used to describe situations where the acting person's name is unknown. Some writers have argued that namelessness, though technically correct, does not capture what is more centrally at stake in contexts of anonymity. The important idea here is that a person be non-identifiable, unreachable, or untrackable. Anonymity is seen as a technique, or a way of realizing, a certain other values, such as privacy, or liberty.

A longitudinal study is a research design that involves repeated observations of the same variables over short or long periods of time. It is often a type of observational study, although they can also be structured as longitudinal randomized experiments.

Nationally representative samples of 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students (The 2010 MTF survey encompassed about 46,500 students from almost 400 schools nationwide^[2]) receive a questionnaire investigating substance use patterns, attitudes and beliefs about drugs, perceived availability of drugs, and norms among peer and role model groups. Currently, approximately 50,000 8th, 10th and 12th-grade students complete the survey annually.^[3]

Substance abuse, also known as drug abuse, is a patterned use of a drug in which the user consumes the substance in amounts or with methods which are harmful to themselves or others, and is a form of substance-related disorder. Widely differing definitions of drug abuse are used in public health, medical and criminal justice contexts. In some cases criminal or anti-social behaviour occurs when the person is under the influence of a drug, and long term personality changes in individuals may occur as well. In addition to possible physical, social, and psychological harm, use of some drugs may also lead to criminal penalties, although these vary widely depending on the local jurisdiction.

The survey also evaluates a variety of topics beyond drug use. Questionnaire questions also explore subjects' occupational and educational plans and experiences, attitudes about gender roles, attitudes and experiences with people of a different race/ethnicity, trust in government and other institutions, concerns about the environment, media consumption, victimization and delinquency, among other things. Follow-up studies into adulthood also cover marriage and family formation, college attendance, military service, civilian employment, unemployment, and other topics.^{[ citation needed ]}

A gender role, also known as a sex role, is a social role encompassing a range of behaviors and attitudes that are generally considered acceptable, appropriate, or desirable for people based on their actual or perceived sex. Gender roles are usually centered on conceptions of femininity and masculinity, although there are exceptions and variations. The specifics regarding these gendered expectations may vary substantially among cultures, while other characteristics may be common throughout a range of cultures. There is ongoing debate as to what extent gender roles and their variations are biologically determined, and to what extent they are socially constructed.

Media consumption or media diet is the sum of information and entertainment media taken in by an individual or group. It includes activities such as interacting with new media, reading books and magazines, watching television and film, and listening to radio. An active media consumer must have the capacity for skepticism, judgement, free thinking, questioning, and understanding.

Marriage, also called matrimony or wedlock, is a socially or ritually recognised union between spouses that establishes rights and obligations between those spouses, as well as between them and any resulting biological or adopted children and affinity. The definition of marriage varies around the world not only between cultures and between religions, but also throughout the history of any given culture and religion, evolving to both expand and constrict in who and what is encompassed, but typically it is principally an institution in which interpersonal relationships, usually sexual, are acknowledged or sanctioned. In some cultures, marriage is recommended or considered to be compulsory before pursuing any sexual activity. When defined broadly, marriage is considered a cultural universal. A marriage ceremony is known as a wedding.

Regular marijuana and cigarette use by 12th graders

Chart below is from a NIDA article. Text at the top was added later. Chart is for regular marijuana and cigarette use by 12th graders in the USA in the past 30 days. For cigarettes actual daily use is measured. For marijuana it is for use on 20 or more occasions in the past 30 days.^[4]

Related Research Articles

The Office of National Drug Control Policy is a component of the Executive Office of the President of the United States.

MTF may refer to:

Gateway drug theory is a comprehensive catchphrase for the theory that the use of a psychoactive drug can be coupled to an increased probability of the use of further drugs. Possible causes are biological alterations in the brain due to the earlier drug and similar attitudes of users across different drugs. Scientific investigation of the possible causes is considered important for health policy concerning education and law making.

The Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS) is a membership-based 501(c)(3) organization working to raise awareness and understanding of psychedelic substances. MAPS was founded in 1986 by Rick Doblin, and is now based in Santa Cruz, California.

Smokeless tobacco is a tobacco product that is used by means other than smoking. Their use involves chewing, sniffing, or placing the product between gum and the cheek or lip. Smokeless tobacco products are produced in various forms, such as chewing tobacco, snuff, snus, and dissolvable tobacco products. Smokeless tobacco products typically contain over 3000 constituents. All smokeless tobacco products contain nicotine and is therefore highly addictive. Quitting smokeless tobacco use is as challenging as smoking cessation.

College Health is a field of medicine that exclusively deals with the medical care of college age students. Many colleges and universities campuses offer some sort of student health service, but there is wide variability in the healthcare resources available from campus to campus, with models of student health ranging from first aid stations employing a single nurse to large multi-specialty clinics with hundreds of employees. The vast majority of college health services are set up as service units rather than academic departments. The educational aspect of college health is sometimes referred to Health Promotion in Higher Education.

The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) is an American biennial survey of adolescent health risk and health protective behaviors such as smoking, drinking, drug use, diet, and physical activity conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is one of the major sources of information about these risk behaviors, and is used by federal agencies to track drug use, sexual behavior, and other risk behaviors.

The Drug Resistance Strategies Project (DRS), a program funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), teaches adolescents and pre-adolescents how to make decisions and resist alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs (ATOD).

An association between tobacco and other drug use has been well established. The nature of this association remains unclear. The two main theories, which are not mutually exclusive, are the phenotypic causation (gateway) model and the correlated liabilities model. The causation model argues that smoking is a primary influence on future drug use, while the correlated liabilities model argues that smoking and other drug use are predicated on genetic or environmental factors.

Substance Abuse Prevention, also known as drug abuse prevention, is a process that attempts to prevent the onset of substance use or limit the development of problems associated with using psychoactive's substances. Prevention efforts may focus on the individual or their surroundings. A concept known as "environmental prevention" focuses on changing community conditions or policies so that the availability of substances is reduced as well as the demand.

The CRAFFT Screening Test is a short clinical assessment tool designed to screen for substance-related risks and problems in adolescents. CRAFFT stands for the key words of the 6 items in the second section of the assessment - Car, Relax, Alone, Forget, Friends, Trouble. As of 2016, an updated version of the CRAFFT known as the “CRAFFT 2.0” has been released.

Center for the Collaborative Classroom is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Alameda, CA that was founded in 1980 by Eric Schaps. Collaborative Classroom develops and disseminates literacy and community-building programs for use in elementary schools, and literacy, mathematics, and science enrichment programs for use in after-school environments, as well as provides professional development services tailored to each program. Collaborative Classroom develops its programs with the goal of helping schools and after-school sites create caring, supportive learning environments that help all children acquire the academic skills they need to be productive and successful, and as well as build and deepen their understanding of, and commitment to, values such as kindness, helpfulness, personal responsibility, and respect for others.

Smokingamong youth and adolescents is an issue that affects countries worldwide. While the extent to which smoking is viewed as a negative health behavior may vary across different nations, it remains an issue regardless of how it is perceived by different societies. The United States has taken numerous measures, ranging from changes in national policy surrounding youth cigarette access to changes in media campaigns, in attempts to eliminate the use of tobacco products among teenagers. Approximately 90% of smokers begin smoking prior to the age of 18. In efforts to reduce the total number of smokers and negative effects smoking has on society, it is necessary to reduce the number of youth and adolescents who begin smoking.

The Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study (CILS) was designed to study the adaptation process of the immigrant second generation. Immigrant second generation is defined broadly as United States-born children with at least one foreign-born parent, or children born abroad but brought at an early age to the United States. The original survey was conducted with large samples of second-generation immigrant children attending the 8th and 9th grades in public and private schools in the metropolitan areas of Miami/Ft. Lauderdale in Florida and San Diego, California. Conducted in 1992, the first survey had the purpose of ascertaining baseline information on immigrant families, children's demographic characteristics, language use, self-identities, and academic attainment. The total sample size was 5,262. Respondents came from 77 different nationalities, although the sample reflects the most sizable immigrant nationalities in each area. Three years later, corresponding to the time in which respondents were about to graduate from high school, the first follow-up survey was conducted. Its purpose was to examine the evolution of key adaptation outcomes including language knowledge and preference, ethnic identity, self-esteem, and academic attainment over the adolescent years. The survey also sought to establish the proportion of second-generation youths who dropped out of school before graduation. This follow-up survey retrieved 4,288 respondents or 81.5 percent of the original sample. Together with this follow-up survey, a parental survey was conducted. The purpose of this interview was to establish directly characteristics of immigrant parents and families and their outlooks for the future including aspirations and plans for the children. In total, 2,442 parents or 46 percent of the original student sample were interviewed. During 2001-2003, or a decade after the original survey, a final follow-up was conducted. The sample now averaged 24 years of age and, hence, patterns of adaptation in early adulthood could be readily assessed. The original and follow-up surveys were conducted mostly in schools attended by respondents, greatly facilitating access to them. Most respondents had already left school by the time of the second follow-up so they had to be contacted individually in their place of work or residence. Respondents were located not only in the San Diego and Miami areas, but also in more than 30 different states, with some surveys returned from military bases overseas. Mailed questionnaires were the principal source of completed data in this third survey. In total, CILS-III retrieved complete or partial information on 3,613 respondents representing 68.9 percent of the original sample and 84.3 percent of the first follow-up. Relevant adaptation outcomes measured in this survey include educational attainment, employment and occupational status, income, civil status and ethnicity of spouses/partners, political attitudes and participation, ethnic and racial identities, delinquency and incarceration, attitudes and levels of identification with American society, and plans for the future.

National Families in Action is a 501 (c) (3) non-profit organization that was founded in Atlanta, Georgia in 1977. Its mission is to help children succeed by empowering parents to create an academic and social environment where children thrive and are protected from substance abuse and other high-risk behaviors. The organization obtained the nation’s first state laws banning the sale of drug paraphernalia. It helped lead a national effort to help parents replicate Georgia’s laws in other states to prevent the marketing of drugs and drug use to children. Along with the Parents Resource Institute for Drug Education (PRIDE) and the National Federation of Parents for Drug-Free Youth, it helped parents form parent drug prevention groups to protect children’s health. Federal officials credit the parent movement with the two-thirds reduction in past-month drug use among adolescents and young adults that occurred between 1979, when drug use among these age groups peaked, and 1992, when their drug use fell to the lowest levels since national surveys began.

The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign is a current domestic government propaganda campaign in the United States conducted by the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) within the Executive Office of the President of the United States with the goal to "influence the attitudes of the public and the news media with respect to drug abuse" and of "reducing and preventing drug abuse among young people in the United States".

The use of Cannabis as a recreational drug has been outlawed in many countries for several decades. As a result of long-fought legalization efforts, several countries such as Uruguay and Canada, as well as several states in the US, have legalized the production, sale, possession, and recreational and/or medical usage of Cannabis. The broad legalization of Cannabis in this fashion can have numerous effects on the economy and society in which it is legalized.

Wilson M. Compton is the deputy director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). Before being appointed to this position in 2013, he was the director of the NIDA's Division of Epidemiology, Services and Prevention Research since 2002. He has also served as a member of the DSM-5 Task Force and the Substance Use Disorders Workgroup. Before joining NIDA, he was an associate professor of psychiatry at Washington University in Saint Louis and the medical director of addiction services at Barnes-Jewish Hospital.

References

1 2 Purpose and Design of Monitoring the Future
1 2 3 Johnston, L. D., O’Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., & Schulenberg, J. E. (2011). Monitoring the Future national results on adolescent drug use: Overview of key findings, 2010. Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan.
↑ "Welcome to the MTF Website". Monitoringthefuture.org. 2015-12-16. Retrieved 2016-01-03.
1 2 Miech, R. A., Schulenberg, J. E., Johnston, L. D., Bachman, J. G., O'Malley, P. M., & Patrick, M. E. (December 17, 2018). "National Adolescent Drug Trends in 2018." Monitoring the Future: Ann Arbor, MI. Stats source is linked from the charts index. From footnotes: "Daily use is defined as use on 20 or more occasions in the past 30 days except for cigarettes and smokeless tobacco, for which actual daily use is measured." This particular footnote is for more than one chart. Smokeless tobacco is not measured in the marijuana and cigarettes chart. That NIDA chart is found in this NIDA article.

External links

The National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) is a United States federal-government research institute whose mission is to "lead the Nation in bringing the power of science to bear on drug abuse and addiction."

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[P&D-1] 1 2 Purpose and Design of Monitoring the Future

[MTF2010-2] 1 2 3 Johnston, L. D., O’Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., & Schulenberg, J. E. (2011). Monitoring the Future national results on adolescent drug use: Overview of key findings, 2010. Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan.

[3] "Welcome to the MTF Website". Monitoringthefuture.org. 2015-12-16. Retrieved 2016-01-03.

[2018charts-4] 1 2 Miech, R. A., Schulenberg, J. E., Johnston, L. D., Bachman, J. G., O'Malley, P. M., & Patrick, M. E. (December 17, 2018). "National Adolescent Drug Trends in 2018." Monitoring the Future: Ann Arbor, MI. Stats source is linked from the charts index. From footnotes: "Daily use is defined as use on 20 or more occasions in the past 30 days except for cigarettes and smokeless tobacco, for which actual daily use is measured." This particular footnote is for more than one chart. Smokeless tobacco is not measured in the marijuana and cigarettes chart. That NIDA chart is found in this NIDA article.